And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh. (Luke 21:28)
The revival of severe sanctions on Tehran will certainly take down the Iranian government in mid or long term. But mob organizations like Iran’s Revolutionary Guard that make lots of money through drug and human trafficking might be survived or even be strengthened in the absence of a powerful government in the country. Also, cryptocurrency plays a significant role in this cycle.
In brief, the sanction will eventually change the balance of power within Iranian regime in favor of Iranian Revolutionary Guard. And it is the end of the game; final confrontation. The ultimate product of the process would be a weak, isolated and aggressive Tehran, like Havana and Caracas with a manageable chance of war.
Showing posts with label Sanctions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sanctions. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
Monday, October 20, 2014
Russia: The Rise of Economic Opportunity behind the Appearance of Sanctions
The functionality of sanctions against Russia has found to be different from that of the same sanctions against Iran. Western sanction against Russia not only caused a reduction in the Moscow's power and its capabilities, but also has made a new business opportunity.
The Russian economic crisis caused by regime of sanctions resulted in outflow of Russian capitals and Russian investors out of Russia's territory. This situation can be counted as an economic opportunity for the European economic powers and the U.S. as well. But this situation can only be viewed as an opportunity if and only if these two policies applied at the same time: first, to allow Russian investors to invest in these countries while securing their capitals, and second, to set some investment limitations for Russian investors. Those states who apply such policies can enjoy benefits of inflow of such foreign investments while avoiding risks involved in theme.
As an example: Russia has never allowed western investors to invest widely on Russian upstream petroleum industry.This policy is applied to prevent foreigners to dominate in Russian economy (or Russian economic leverages).
Therefore, western powers are able to create new opportunities for their own states via modification of bureaucracy of sanctions regime system.
The Russian economic crisis caused by regime of sanctions resulted in outflow of Russian capitals and Russian investors out of Russia's territory. This situation can be counted as an economic opportunity for the European economic powers and the U.S. as well. But this situation can only be viewed as an opportunity if and only if these two policies applied at the same time: first, to allow Russian investors to invest in these countries while securing their capitals, and second, to set some investment limitations for Russian investors. Those states who apply such policies can enjoy benefits of inflow of such foreign investments while avoiding risks involved in theme.
As an example: Russia has never allowed western investors to invest widely on Russian upstream petroleum industry.This policy is applied to prevent foreigners to dominate in Russian economy (or Russian economic leverages).
Therefore, western powers are able to create new opportunities for their own states via modification of bureaucracy of sanctions regime system.
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
The Issue of Merchants: Russia and Sanctions
In order to realize the process of the continuation of sanctions against Moscow, both Washington and Brussels require the vote of confidence from merchants and commercial companies. Therefore holding continuing meetings with them is necessary because the recent sanctions have affected short- and long-term interests of merchants and trading companies of the West.
It is obvious that each of their individual vote to continue the sanctions regime will be negative (which also includes business companies that have identified Russia as a potential business partner in their own business future) but undoubtedly, their collective vote will be positive to continue these conditions. In other words, if a large number of businessmen and heads of corporations be invited to a meeting, you can easily attract their trust and agreement to the continuation of sanctions against Moscow.
We will get more familiar with the business approach, through a question:
Why merchants or businesses companies financially support political candidates in elections?
The goal of the formation of such support from the merchants is to get the helm of "political economy" in favor of their economic interests.
In the assumed meeting, an invisible competition would be made to get a share of the helm of political economy between the invited merchants in the meeting and the loser of this competition will be the one who objects to the policies of the country. Thus, the mechanism of competition will automatically lead to the merchants' agreement with the continuation of sanctions against Russia.
It is obvious that each of their individual vote to continue the sanctions regime will be negative (which also includes business companies that have identified Russia as a potential business partner in their own business future) but undoubtedly, their collective vote will be positive to continue these conditions. In other words, if a large number of businessmen and heads of corporations be invited to a meeting, you can easily attract their trust and agreement to the continuation of sanctions against Moscow.
We will get more familiar with the business approach, through a question:
Why merchants or businesses companies financially support political candidates in elections?
The goal of the formation of such support from the merchants is to get the helm of "political economy" in favor of their economic interests.
In the assumed meeting, an invisible competition would be made to get a share of the helm of political economy between the invited merchants in the meeting and the loser of this competition will be the one who objects to the policies of the country. Thus, the mechanism of competition will automatically lead to the merchants' agreement with the continuation of sanctions against Russia.
Monday, August 11, 2014
About the Russian Sanctions
Russian sanctions against Western countries on one hand means as Russia's readiness to continue tensions, even if by ending the crisis in Ukraine and on the other hand it can be identified as Russia's last effort to bring Western powers back to the negotiation channel with Moscow.
But two points are so important here. Firstly, Syria, or according to the British friends "Syria's permission" is not negotiable. Therefore, it is necessary for Moscow to know that what has been achieved in Syria will not be returned to Russia. Secondly, it is important to know that Russia's carrot is certainly tempting, especially on Gazprom. So if the regime of tensions tends to continue in order to realize the great aim of weakening Russia, it is needful to ensure the interests of the Western powers.
Also, powers such as the UK and Japan, both of whom are unsure about continuing tensions with Russia, before continuing conflicts with the country it is necessary to raise their true desires and expectations. Because the regime of tensions that will have a function like an order in case of continuing and will be successful if all the countries allied with Washington move in concert with each other.
It is clear that the tensions' regime should not lead to expensive opportunities such as establishing a secret channel with Russia for friends of Washington; otherwise, the regime of tensions would fail in achieving its primary goal.
But two points are so important here. Firstly, Syria, or according to the British friends "Syria's permission" is not negotiable. Therefore, it is necessary for Moscow to know that what has been achieved in Syria will not be returned to Russia. Secondly, it is important to know that Russia's carrot is certainly tempting, especially on Gazprom. So if the regime of tensions tends to continue in order to realize the great aim of weakening Russia, it is needful to ensure the interests of the Western powers.
Also, powers such as the UK and Japan, both of whom are unsure about continuing tensions with Russia, before continuing conflicts with the country it is necessary to raise their true desires and expectations. Because the regime of tensions that will have a function like an order in case of continuing and will be successful if all the countries allied with Washington move in concert with each other.
It is clear that the tensions' regime should not lead to expensive opportunities such as establishing a secret channel with Russia for friends of Washington; otherwise, the regime of tensions would fail in achieving its primary goal.
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