The Darkest Black Sea

The winner does not buy time, but shoots the seconds to his rivals.
The Black Sea and its own great sources will play a major role for European long-term politics. But now, as a result of illegal annexation of Crimea to Russia, more parts of the sea are dominated by Moscow. As long as the issue has not been resolved, inevitably the element of time could be taken advantage of against Kremlin. 
There are three different solutions for the above problem: 
First, retaking Crimea by launching a Western campaign, which might be a main reason of backing Ukraine Euromaidan Revolution. 
Second, implementation of scorched earth strategy against Moscow, like Syria through expanding sanctions and starting riots.
Third, fighting climate change from the point of fossil fuel energy. Achieving this goal would not be possible merely by lying on green tech, since this kind of technology is not affordable and fast enough. Investments on technologies and innovation that promote green technology to a competitive level is necessary in order to make green tech attractive for both macroeconomics and political economy. 
The system must put all of its efforts on realization of the above plans. But in respect of the third solution, the oil mafia must be overcome from the outset through peaceful or easier ways, which might be violent.

Globalization along with Social Effect

A rich society with needy individuals is the status of the current post-modernism. 
Totalitarianism is not something that the world can have tolerance toward. Therefore, the process of globalization and the state of free speech have safeguarded the West from modern types of totalitarianism. Soft suppression of people through media and scientific trust as a renewed emergence of fascism have been identified by the society. 
The soft totalitarianism targets individualism, which is a main value of the West. A civil society like Britain and the United States cannot stand for anything that is against internationalism or globalization. The people aim to revive individualism. Many Americans and Brits have left their families the West and lost their lives in the East. The American young man who lost his father for Iraq War, has lost his only standing hero for a life time. 
Using the concept of internationalism for merely political purposes has damaged the global security, the middle class level of living and the value of individualism. At this moment, adopting nationalism for erasing destructive effects of their measures might be inevitable.

Lebanon and Terrorism

Lebanon is the only Arab country where Christians form around half of its population. Therefore, Lebanon is at a vulnerable position toward the danger of terrorism. Terrorist groups in the region may allow Muslims to survive by imposing tough rules and harsh condition but they never give other faiths such a chance. They would kill and enslave the Yazidis and the Christians. 
If Lebanon's Hezbollah has been a terrorist organization, Christians, Sunnis and those who do not believe to any spiritual faith but having fun in Beirut's bars must have been complaining about Hezbollah. But why none of them submit even a report against Hezbollah, which is a Shia political and paramilitary organization?! 
Traditionally, a terrorist group is one that tries to impose its own ideology or faith to others by force. While Hezbollah has a moderate attitude toward social and cultural issues and it has not attacked freedom of people in Lebanon yet though the domain of freedom might contradicts Islam and Sharia Law. Politically, Hezbollah committed to democracy and diplomacy and it never tried to abuse its military power to occupy Beirut by a coup while the present condition of the country could be tempting. In addition, it would be a useful training to sometime answer to arguments rather than repeating old allegations. 
Political instability of Lebanon is an evident fact and considering its own vulnerable position and critical situation of borders with Syria, strengthening Hezbollah is vital to keep counter-terrorism powerful. 
Removing competitor is the nature of politics and without a doubt Tehran, Bashar al-Assad, Hezbollah and perhaps Yemen’s Ansarullah are regional rivals of the West in the Middle East but eliminating them, thorough unusual, unprofessional and hastily acts could only create crisis. This approach of the Western States needs revision.

Aramco: Conspiracy Wrecker

Purging a bad director is more convenient than eliminating ten ugly actors. 
There some considerable events are occurring about Saudi Arabia. According to classified information, high rank officials of Britain, France and the U.S. have counseled Riyadh not to use the image of the murdered prince, Mohammad Bin Salman to wipe out his memory from the people's minds. (Berlin had no role in this issue). On the other hand, the West is pretty happy of the current situation and tries to maintain it by broadcasting false news about his meeting with the Western officials and publishing old or fake interviews with him in its own media. 
At the time being, Saudi Arabia can survive by the US banking facilities that under the pressure of the White House were given to Riyadh and resulted in dissatisfaction of the banks owners and directors. Therefore, there is no real economic interests for the U.S. in Saudi Arabia. But everyone knows that the West is nearly responsible for the present situation. And everybody should ask himself this question why Western states have wanted to put Riyadh’s back to the wall?! 
Aramco is one the few petroleum industries that has still remained national, which is the biggest one in its field. Qatar, Iraq, Emirates, Nigeria and Venezuela have no more national petroleum industry. And since the system cannot bear any surprise, it should be said with confident that the West wants to take over %95 of Aramco at this point of time, which is a bad game because the system must foil it. 
The system should gather a group of dissidents among Saudi princes including those who planned the conspiracy of Mina incident. Although the system does not confirm Mina conspiracy as an acceptable act but a limited cooperation with them is allowed. There is a common goal between the system and them, which is taking down the incumbent leadership of Riyadh. The new leadership of Saudi government might gain new economic, political and even military aid from the West in return for withdrawing from Aramco in favor of them. Their plan must be stopped at any cost. But first of all, the most important classified data of Saudi Arabia including documents, videos and photos should be given to the dissident princes. 
The only problem is London since it has the information about these princes but it can be managed by the counter information of the system that put London on a bad situation if it takes any wrong approach.

Syria: Unlimited Truce

To stop the war in Syria arms shipments to Syria must be stopped.
Bashar al-Assad and Russia have similar viewpoints about the Syrian crisis. Moscow backed down from its position in the Ukraine Crisis but it does not want to the same on Syria. 
The system calls for peace in Syria and it will do everything to accomplish this goal. Thus, Iran is requested to temporarily stop arms shipment to Syria. Because weapons motivate wars, and Syria does not need a war but diplomacy. 
Needless to say, Russia and Assad cannot continue this war without the assistance of the system and Iran. This means that the end of war or full implementation of the ceasefire is not dependent on the decisions of Bashar al-Assad and Moscow. The system and Iran's withdrawal from the war will force Syrian president and his Russian counterpart to accept peace and diplomacy with good faith.
Russia has proved its ill will toward Iran. Moscow could immediately send S-400 to Syria and confront international criticism, but even after the lifting of sanctions to Iran, it does not send S-300 to the country. Accordingly, a secret of the recent gift of King of Bahrain to Putin, which was a unique sword, and Russia-Israel relations can be decoded. 
There is no doubt that if the West gives proper concessions to the system and Tehran, leaving Russia and Assad behind will simply be possible. 
In the end, $200 trillion must be withdrawn from the US banking accounts and transferred to Europe in order to increase the bargain ability of the system in any cases. $500 billion of this fund should be given to Iranian government to solve environmental issues of the country. And it is worth to mention that Zionists could easily repair the Israel’s economy, which is on the edge, but they did not because they have had no real ties with the Israeli community.

Nasser, Sadat and the Combinatorial Egypt

Undemocratic Egypt means Gamal Abdel Nasser's and Anwar Sadat's Egypt. And the current Egypt is a combination of both. On one hand Abdul Fattah al-Sisi has created a repressive regime like Abdel Nasser and is going to get close ties with Moscow as well and just like Nasser interferes in Yemen's civil war, on the other hand, he gives ransom to Israel like Anwar Sadat and puts pressure on Palestine through Gaza and close the Rafah crossing. 
Bearing in mind that Eisenhower action to prevent the invasion of France and Britain against Egypt in 1956 which happened following the nationalization of the Suez Canal by Nasser is considered a defeat for the West; and losing is the cost of failure. Since then, Abdel Nasser has converted the Cairo into Moscow's sphere of influence and then attempted to interfere in North Yemen Civil War (1962-1970). 
And now, does the West or even the Arab Nation accept such a combinatorial Egypt?! This Egypt would not allow the formation of any order in the Middle East. Therefore, actions and operations of the system in Egypt will continue even if the war in Yemen ends or if Egypt does not participate to continue the war. 
The system manages these operations in Egypt. As a result, they are not identified with the "extremism" tag. 
In the end, as it is obvious the recent announcement on Aden is false and its broadcasting is opposed to the law governing communications and information. According to the reports, Houthis and Yemeni army could retake Aden airport. Also, no one of Hadi's cabinet member have entered the country. And the war can be harder for Riyadh and its allies soon.

The PSYWAR of ISIS and the Western Media

The murdering of Peter Kassing, the American hostage by ISIS and releasing the video of this criminal act, proposes the question whether do not compensating instead of saving Kassing's life is acceptable or not. 
Given that a few months ago, five Taliban prisoners from Guantanamo were freed by the U.S. government instead of the freedom of an American hostage who was soldier, it must be admitted that the White House allows similar dealings. 
The following question is under consideration according to what was said: Is the White House decision about the issue of hostages who are arrested by ISIS acceptable or not?
Currently, the psychological warfare is ISIS' powerful weapon. Nothing more than releasing the video of the execution of a western innocent citizen can cause ISIS to be the winner of psychological warfare against the West (in public opinion). However, dealing with ISIS about the hostages could damage this destructive weapon of the terrorist group. 
It should be also noted that the mass media keep almost silent about Iraqi army widespread victories in battle against ISIS, or the media broadcast false news "audio file of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi" instead of publishing the real news about his too much injuries (which will probably lead to his death). This indicates that the media are not included as a western lever in PSYWAR against ISIS.

Minsk Protocol: Russian "Reversal of Matter"

It is necessary to verify the West strategy on Ukraine crisis because the political and legal status of Donetsk and Lugansk regions has been changed since signing the Minsk Protocol. So: 
First, Russia is trying to legitimate the total control of separatists over the East Ukraine through "reversal of matter" (as a tactic). 
What is (still) the main matter of Ukraine crisis?
Land and territory, not only a ceasefire or peace.
What is the main problem of Ukraine crisis according to standpoint of Moscow?
Unconditional ceasefire. (It should be noted that such a ceasefire will give Moscow this opportunity to create its third victory in East Ukraine after South Ossetia and Crimea; of course a total war is a best situation to promote the idea of ceasefire in order to divert public opinion and media from the main subject to the ceasefire.)
Therefore, Ukraine needs to know Russia and the separatists want Minsk Protocol to be abolished by Kiev more than anything else. Because the agreement imposed a legal regime based on the law of treaties on the Donetsk and Lugansk areas. Under the agreement, Donetsk and Lugansk are identified as local (self) governments. This legal description determines the areas (legal) capacity and definitely the capacity do not allow Donetsk and Lugansk regions to have independence. So, the total control of separatists over the areas is invalid. Indeed, DPR and LPR representatives as well as Russian Federation representative have recognized the mentioned capacity (not more than that) to Donetsk and Lugansk and the signatory parties are bound to the agreement. 
So it is better to consider use of military force by Kiev against the militants as an effort of the country to force the separatists to implement the agreement or even known as Ukrainian armed defense from the Minsk Protocol. Thus, on the one hand armed action of government (based on a limited war) should not be considered an abolition and repeal of the protocol, but on the other hand the Kiev should not enter to a total war.  
Second, China is not in favor of Putin's regime debacle and fall, therefore China certainly will push to Moscow to end this crisis if it ensures that Ukraine crisis could cause the Putin's regime to be fallen.

Russia: The Rise of Economic Opportunity behind the Appearance of Sanctions

The functionality of sanctions against Russia has found to be different from that of the same sanctions against Iran. Western sanction against Russia not only caused a reduction in the Moscow's power and its capabilities, but also has made a new business opportunity.  
The Russian economic crisis caused by regime of sanctions resulted in outflow of Russian capitals and Russian investors out of Russia's territory. This situation can be counted as an economic opportunity for the European economic powers and the U.S. as well. But this situation can only be viewed as an opportunity if and only if these two policies applied at the same time: first, to allow Russian investors to invest in these countries while securing their capitals, and second, to set some investment limitations for Russian investors. Those states who apply such policies can enjoy benefits of inflow of such foreign investments while avoiding risks involved in theme.  
As an example: Russia has never allowed western investors to invest widely on Russian upstream petroleum industry.This policy is applied to prevent foreigners to dominate in Russian economy (or Russian economic leverages).
Therefore, western powers are able to create new opportunities for their own states via modification of bureaucracy of sanctions regime system.

The Last "G" of the Cat

On the contrary to the expectations, the accident of Mosul has not been a good opening of a story for its writers. Where are those who wrote the game theory of "ISIS"; those who designed the project of the “heating of the geography” in the Middle East?!
Where are those who were so powerful until six months ago, that, world powers did not even dare to question them?!
Some are still alive. The cause of their survival is not their former power, but they have become so feeble that they have lost their real existence.
Yesterday, the American friends in territory of the U.S. and today the Great Britain attempts, to filtrate them. Surely tomorrow, the Germany that has been hesitant about the decision will join its two partners in order to filtrate and purge the mob shadow cabinet.
Cat's companies and even his restaurants (which also include restaurants that Cat did not have the official ownership) were a place to commit organized crimes. A significant number of employees of these companies and restaurants that were involved in these organized crimes and could certainly provide comprehensive information for the British agents specially about the involvement in "Mosul" project with the cooperation of the club (; the French club), were Cat's Polish employees.
Today, the largest and richest private intelligence agency of the West has been disintegrated and stopped and the signs that were used by its members to communicate with each other has been invalid, but attempts to purge personas non grata is continuing and will continue until the full deployment of the secure order.

Ukraine: The Crisis Diplomacy Performance

Political and military options that Russia chose in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, provided the ability to predict the Russian choices in the Ukraine's crisis for the other parties.The two options of recognizing the result of the referendum in East Ukraine as well as the option of entering Russian forces to the territories occupied by the pro-Russian militants were available after recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk by Moscow. Both of these options were implemented on Georgia, and Russia has been able to skillfully separate Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia. But now, as the leader of the militants in East Ukraine is not calling for the secession from the territory of Ukraine, it can be concluded that Moscow has entirely lost its chance to recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk and therefore any entrance of Russian military to this area means the same as military aggression against Ukraine.
But what changed the result of the game in Ukraine has probably been the priority of the issue of Syria for Moscow. Since the Presidential elections in Syria was taking place in a close distance to the referendum in East Ukraine, the possibility of forming a deal with Russia over the Syria was create at that point of time.
The deal was simple: military branch of the opponents of Bashar al-Assad leave the city of Homs and in return Russia stops supporting the pro-Russians militants.
At first, the opponents of Bashar al-Assad left Homs and John Kerry rejected the leader of Bashar al-Assad's opponents request to send weapons to them, and then the Russian military forces withdrew from the Ukraine borders and Vladimir Putin urged the East Ukrainian separatists to delay the referendum.
But about the destiny of gambling on Syria, we must admit that the White House has been the hidden winner of the game. Lack of reaction by Damascus on the recent Israel-Gaza conflict and even the lack of Bashar al-Assad's verbal support for Gaza despite his former anti-Israel stances and despite supports of Iran and Hezbollah in the Syrian Civil War in favor of Bashar al-Assad indicate that new Syria is created.

Ukraine's Issue: Ceasefire and Political Credibility of the West

Certainly, the number of people who were in favor of the truce in Ukraine were almost equal to the number of those who were in favor of continuing the conflicts in the country. European and American supporters of continuing the conflicts were often those who wanted to continue conflicts against the Russia through continuing the disaster in Ukraine. Probably a similar reason to this logic in Russia causes the continuous supports of Moscow for the pro-Russians in East Ukraine.
However, even if we want to look at this case in a pure mechanical way we notice that there are obstacles on using the Civil War as a way to fight against Russia. And the most important barrier is Kiev. Since the West is involved in Ukraine's issue, therefore we must admit that a part of the West's political credibility is now in the possession of the decisions by Kiev. Incorrect decisions by Kiev not only will lead the failure of Ukraine but also the elimination of a part of the West's political credibility.
Kiev has certainly the chance to achieve good advantages as the result of a secret deal with Moscow and finally will bring peace to the country by giving special privileges to Donetsk and Luhansk.
Who will lose in such a deal except the West?!
But the real threat is revealed when Kiev blackmails the West. In other words, by having such an opportunity, Ukraine can decide to persuade the West to gain some especial privileges.
So, as if the West is following to keep tensions with Russia like that of Moscow which is looking for something like this, it is necessary to give no major role to Kiev, in the conflict, in order to guarantee the preservation of the political credibility of the West.

Russian Oligarchy VS Russian Oligarchy

In order to reach victory in the Ukraine's crisis, the West should prevent emotional decisions on the one hand and avoid giving political points to Russia that wants to take advantages through creating a false psychological warfare. Therefore, those allies of the United States who attend with a good faith in the disputation with Russia over the Ukraine's issue now need to strike the Achilles heel of Russia's leadership. It is clear that adopting the ineffective tactic against Moscow at this point of time is equal and equivalent to support the policies of the Kremlin.
Since the privatization in Russia that led to the emergence of the powerful class of oligarchy in the country, there has always been a conflict and competition between the members of this class. Competitions that sometimes led to the use of violence lever as well. The "Yukos" case is one of the best-known examples of these competitions. However, there are other cases that represent the conflict between the oligarchy depending to Vladimir Putin and the independent oligarchy from him (which sometimes includes the former friends of Vladimir Putin, too). 
Therefore, if Russia is turning to use the civil war as a weapon in Ukraine, the West can take up the option of a counter war against Moscow by creating a conflict within circle of the Russian oligarchy to in response to Kremlin's act. 
Regarding that today's Russian leadership is caught in the quagmire of Ukraine as Boris Yeltsin was caught before in Chechen War, and also a group of Putin's oligarchy affiliates consider some of their long-term interests at risk under Putin's team, it can be concluded that the potential to initiate a new dispute between the Russian oligarchs class is formed with each other because the conditions for the return of a group of Russian oligarchs to body of the Russian power is provided. Needless to say that through supporting and protecting a group of them, the West can pushes the Russian oligarchs into a new rival. Thus, Russia re-enters a conflict that had experienced earlier in the course of the first Russian President and finally: a Russia incapable of entering into the international issues.
We should not also neglect the fact that the political structure of Russia is not similar to the political structure of Western and also the European countries which area member of EU; an economic crisis could easily create a major political crisis in Russia. The “Ruble crisis” is a precise instance to prove this claim. 
There is no doubt that the West has been able to strike both Moscow's sphere of political influence in the international arena and attracting investor into Russia through reducing Russia's political and economic reputation. These strains in addition to the pressure from inside to the body of the Russian oligarchy can leave a devastating effect on Moscow's future.

Decision Pyramid of Russia and the Issue of Ukraine

West has been trying to force Moscow to change its policies on Ukraine through sanctioning Russia. However, these sanctions could not stop Russia supporting the pro-Russian militias in Ukraine. Thus, we can conclude that the only concern of the present decision pyramid in Russia as in the Cold War and the former Soviet era is to maintain their own personal interests (and not the rights and privileges of the people and Russia). That is why the strengthening of Gazprom as the most important economic center in Russia and also promoting the political position of Moscow during post Boris Yeltsin years does not led to a tangible improvement in the quality of Russians' life.
So it is convenient for the West to determine private and personal interests of the decision pyramid's members as the target of sanctions in order to realize the pressures against Moscow or in other words to make these pressures efficient.
Certainly, when the members of Russian decision pyramid separated their own interests from the interests of Russia, it is expected that the West identifies the mentioned separation to avoid wasting the resources and quickly achieve its goals.
An important point in this respect is that Moscow's dangerous decisions on Ukraine, which eventually led to the sanctions against Russia, have definitely been against the long term interests of big economical companies of Russia such as Gazprom. But despite this fact, these companies have continued their support of the Russian leadership, so doesn't this mean that these companies confirm the Kremlin's policies?!