Thursday, June 26, 2014

Syria: Changes

Assad opponents failed to occupy Damascus in months or during the first or second year of civil war, thus, it was predicted that continuing the war and the Sierra Maestra pattern would not lead the victory of the militants faction opposing Bashar al-Asad whose power has decreased over the first months and years of the war. Also, there is a principle that a controlled war can be the guarantee for an instable government and this is what we witnessed in Syria.
Thus, efforts to establish peace in Syria seem reasonable for those who really want changes in Syria. Although peace was half goal which was realized, the whole goal would be realized when the power does change in Syria. Therefore, transference of authority does not necessarily mean as the abdication of Bashar al-Asad from the Presidency. Syria is already under the pressure of international sanctions, economic infrastructures of the country have been damaged, its most important supporter, Russia, is involved in Ukraine's issue and rescuing its lost political credibility and the Syrian opposition has been recognized whereas the Arabic countries in the region are demanding a change in authority in Syria. Thus all Arabic countries' investments will transfer from the militants opposing Bashar al-Assad to the recognized opposition of the Syria. Certainly, when the peace is the order of the day, Bashar al-Assad's government can only compete with the opposition when it can overcome political and economical issues. The irony is that governments recognize oppositions when they have stable political power and when their power reduces, they attempt to suppress opposition, and therefore Bashar al-Assad was forced to behave to act against this political nature.
The only matter that this opposition must not forget is that in the present circumstances, it is not expedient to follow the Venezuelan opposition. Venezuelan opposition in spite of having high power and considerable influence on public opinion, was inflexible and did not want to gradually increase its dominance with achieving political and economic privileges in the structure of power in Venezuela, but wanted coup, revolution from above, and a sudden confiscation of all power that has not been very successful (even a successful coup that had in 2002 was not viable.)

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Ukraine: Overt and Covert Crises

For continuation of survival, it is necessary that Ukraine's government has an appropriate prescription to deal with three issues of debts, Gazprom and Ukraine's East crisis. The first two issues are more important than Ukraine's East crisis; because, Ukraine's historical experience shows that Orange Revolution fell due to inability to provide a proper solution to the problem of debt to Moscow and also Gazprom. Considering the fact that Moscow, due to interference in Ukraine affairs, is also affected by Ukraine's East crisis; it can be accepted that the final result in the East of Ukraine can affect Moscow's political credibility, and this means converting threats into opportunities for Kiev. 
Occurrence of crisis in Ukraine, and especially in the East of the country, had been accompanied with condemning Russian government's political behavior by allies of Washington; and this issue has declined an enormous part of Moscow's political credibility. Offering the suggestion of peace talks between the parties involved in Ukraine's conflict, Russian leadership tries to rebuild his face, and also through regaining his former power try to return to the arena of global competition. 
So if Moscow succeeds in its new plan, it should be announced that Ukraine crisis will not end, but with making concessions to Moscow and Ukraine's East authority. 
Russia tries to solve Ukraine's East crisis only when the continuation of this crisis has a negative impact on its political credibility; otherwise, that is if Kremlin can escape the crisis by normalizing and taking a peaceful face, it surely does not need to end the crisis in Ukraine's East.
Therefore, if Moscow's political credibility is at risk, Kiev will be able to use Ukraine's East crisis as a winning card to solve the three issues noted above. 
Finally, war destroys war. It means what ends war is war's nature, not the power of a dominant side (in most cases). So, continuation of the war by considering current elements will be beneficial to Kiev.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

Draft (Version 3)

The third draft of the novel that is now being written and has not yet become a full version has a content that is required to be studied.
The background of the story is not colorful; betrayal, the female sex and youth must be known as the tags of the novel. Afterwards, the author as probably stated her own or others personal experiences!
But the draft is full of clumsy copying of such as the tale of pool, punishment (lockup!) and etc. However, the detail of this draft is more important than the general part.
Attracting investors from the sex industry for this novel has made this story to become a broad commercial advertisement for sex toys.
Another important issue that needs to be said about the draft is the revelation of code names (mostly female) and also the revelation of some truths; (documents that can be told only through "particles") and are rose through this novel.  

Friday, June 20, 2014

Additional information about the murder report

The vehicle, by which the murderer goes victim's house with him, has been an expensive white car. The car was driven by the murderer and it did not belong to the slain.
The syringe shots are injected into two parts of the victim's body, first, around the neck and behind the right ear and the other over the heart of the victim and close to his shoulder.
(The key word "face" which was used in the previous report, did not meant as facial but means existence, identity and ID.)
Killing an identified person (which was realized after the first contact with the victim through a detected channel), is not something that can be easily kept secret.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Unforgiven Guilt of Lie

Dennis is a 62-year-old and American-born man who lives in L.A. and most of his children are acting in film and Television; for example, “Prison Break” TV series. He is relatively fat. 
He does four businesses, including selling clothes, selling cigarettes, selling weapons and a business in pornography. He does two first trade legally, but third one is illegal, and it must be said about the forth one that he attempts to cheat girls who are intending to leave the pornography; and giving them false promises, he has launched a business.
(Do you know what happened then to these sex workers?!)
Dennis's wife has experienced her second marriage. She has a 9-year-old girl, but she neglected her daughter, because the woman's (only) boyfriend has an unsavory intention toward her little girl (because he has known that the girl is also rich).  
Also, Denise's wife is employed (buying and selling), but she is not an actress.
[On Dennis] Someone who is forgiven to The Bible does not need to be forgiven.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Ukraine and International Criminal Court

Russia, as before, has used Gazprom as weapon against changing Ukraine`s political policy. But, now Kiev has such situation that it can resist against this Russia's old weapon with resourcefulness.
Undoubtedly, East Ukraine`s militias operations deserve punishment and also, self-proclaimed Novorussiya state is not recognized by any country or any international organization. So, these crimes have taken place in Kiev area and Kiev has the right of trying criminals of East Ukraine judicially.
Evidently occurred crime at East Ukraine as crimes against humanity that was specified in constitution of International Criminal Court is suable. So, due to joining Ukraine to International Criminal Court from 2000, it can leave thou criminal verification of offenders to an international court with status report of East Ukraine to prosecutor of the court.
It is obvious that court interfering to East Ukraine issue causes not only trying offenders judicially, but also, prevents Moscow from interfering in Ukraine affairs. Undoubtedly, political and legal movement causes reducing Kremlin credibility.
Points:
Ukraine haven't approved court`s constitution in the country despite that Ukraine has signed that. So, in such situation, approval of this constitution for Moscow means that Kiev is ready to use International Criminal Court's card. 
Since, Kiev reports its situation, so it doesn't need Security Council and also doesn't face with probability obstacle such Veto.
And also, Kiev can do political factoring of this card and can gain wanted advantages from Moscow before performing this card.

Monday, June 16, 2014

Mosul: Open Trap

Robert Michael Gates, Former United States Secretary of Defense, wrote in his book “Duty” that terrorism in Iraq was supported by groups of Iran and Syria. So this assumption exists that now also Syria and Iran are the major supporters of militant group, “ISIS”.
Supporting militant group “ISIS”, Bashar al-Assad could have put his fight against opposition under the title of fight against terrorism; and thus, legitimize it. On the other hand, by transferring “ISIS" terrorism from Syria to Iraq, Bashar al-Assad could actually alter the playing field and divert looks from Syria to another point. But, what needs to be considered is that now two thousand military forces of Iran have arrived in Iraq in order to support the government and fight against terrorists.
Some points are so important about this subject:
Iranian military forces entered Iraq, are a population of Army of the Guardians forces, and not Iranian Army (in other words, a Mafia organization which have found new linking bridges with Arabic countries, including Kuwait, and Qatar, as well as groups from Russia and the US). 
According to the fact that Iran always avoids military presence to maintain peace in the region, including Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, the fight against terrorism in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan; it can be concluded that this behavior of Iran doesn't have any adaptation with its previous behavior in the international arena. 
So, what is important is, understanding Iran's intention of presence of Army of the Guardians in Iraq. 
Finally, there is the assumption that Army of the Guardians is candidate for the project of “heating of the geography” in the Middle East, again; if this assumption is correct, it must be said that Mosul is a trap for Washington.