The Saudi government intends to launch a military assault on Iran. But since the idea of such an attack is not in compliance with international law and may destabilize the regional order, the system disagrees with it. Nevertheless, Riyadh and the other states may provide the situation for implementing the R2P. It is evident, both domestic and international considerations should be met for application of R2P. For instance, the EU's green light and support would be among notable international factors in this regard.
A critical economic situation for many of the Middle East nations is not a sufficient motive force for starting a revolution. Gaza and the city of Sanaa in Yemen must be convincing examples in this respect; even the collapse of living standard in these areas could not make the people rebel against their corrupt political leaders.
The harsh economic conditions might be the seeds of a revolution but there is faint chance to achieve such a natural revolution in Iran. But the current economic circumstances in the country facilitate the possibility of making an armed opposition group. And this crafted rebel group would play two functions: overthrowing the regime and activating the option of R2P for the other states against Tehran.
Showing posts with label Revolution. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Revolution. Show all posts
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Tehran: Army's Policy
A democratic and stable state forms the society and universities on the pillar of diversity while it makes the army on the basis of uniformity, but an unstable dictatorship acts the reverse.
The army that is shaped upon money and force is a potential threat to the security. Whereas, money (for commanders) and force over soldiers are the foundation of armed forces of Iran. The forces would probably join people in case of mass uprising, and thus, a civil war begins. Keep in mind, today's Syria is the product of Free Syrian Army, the forces who left the Syrian Army.
The system must offer new identity, safe residence and money for Iranian commanders who render sensitive and classified information.
Current Iranian soldiers are tomorrow's potential insurgents. The system must provide a set of acceptable financial and non-financial benefits in order to encourage them to leave the army and join the militia, so that there is no need to non-native mercenaries.
The army that is shaped upon money and force is a potential threat to the security. Whereas, money (for commanders) and force over soldiers are the foundation of armed forces of Iran. The forces would probably join people in case of mass uprising, and thus, a civil war begins. Keep in mind, today's Syria is the product of Free Syrian Army, the forces who left the Syrian Army.
The system must offer new identity, safe residence and money for Iranian commanders who render sensitive and classified information.
Current Iranian soldiers are tomorrow's potential insurgents. The system must provide a set of acceptable financial and non-financial benefits in order to encourage them to leave the army and join the militia, so that there is no need to non-native mercenaries.
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
Iran: Anomie Program
The system believes in no faith but good faith.
Several conflicting elements are forming within Iran that warn a possible anomie just like Libya. Growing public dissatisfaction on the one hand, and on the other hand, as everyone must know, "chaos is a ladder" for Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Iran's civil war is now possible but it seems that the Revolutionary Guards is ready for that. Therefore, it is not a good time for a mass revolt. The system should disrupt their calculation and make sure that the circumstances are suitable for an uprising or even a civil war with a clear and promising future. In this regard:
First, Syria's Assad removal must be back on the agenda again.
Second, Saudi Arabia should be encouraged to declare a conditional peace with Yemen's Houthi insurgents that entails provisions against Tehran such as cutting off all ties with Iran.
Third, economic and political expense of Iran in Iraq must be boosted. It is possible by turning the country into a serious competition field between Riyadh and Tehran. Surely, both Iraqis and Saudis would welcome this situation.
Forth, the concerning ties of Saudi-Pakistan might be ended with an opportunity for Iran. Fortunately, the US enjoys of required means and advantages to fix this situation. And let alone that Pakistan army, intelligence (ISI) and Taliban forces can freely and independently take action, which might be handy.
Fifth, the system and Washington must provide proper incentive packages for Iranian people. Given the inefficacy of Cuban version of this measure, the system should work with European capitals to form comprehensive packages over migration and other humanitarian requirements, which are essential for the West to gain the upper hand and take the lead.
Sixth, a consortium consisting of the system, APIC, Israel, the US and EU should be formed over Tehran's future, instead of directing Iranian oppositions. The interests of all active and passive parties must be ensured as a priority.
Several conflicting elements are forming within Iran that warn a possible anomie just like Libya. Growing public dissatisfaction on the one hand, and on the other hand, as everyone must know, "chaos is a ladder" for Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Iran's civil war is now possible but it seems that the Revolutionary Guards is ready for that. Therefore, it is not a good time for a mass revolt. The system should disrupt their calculation and make sure that the circumstances are suitable for an uprising or even a civil war with a clear and promising future. In this regard:
First, Syria's Assad removal must be back on the agenda again.
Second, Saudi Arabia should be encouraged to declare a conditional peace with Yemen's Houthi insurgents that entails provisions against Tehran such as cutting off all ties with Iran.
Third, economic and political expense of Iran in Iraq must be boosted. It is possible by turning the country into a serious competition field between Riyadh and Tehran. Surely, both Iraqis and Saudis would welcome this situation.
Forth, the concerning ties of Saudi-Pakistan might be ended with an opportunity for Iran. Fortunately, the US enjoys of required means and advantages to fix this situation. And let alone that Pakistan army, intelligence (ISI) and Taliban forces can freely and independently take action, which might be handy.
Fifth, the system and Washington must provide proper incentive packages for Iranian people. Given the inefficacy of Cuban version of this measure, the system should work with European capitals to form comprehensive packages over migration and other humanitarian requirements, which are essential for the West to gain the upper hand and take the lead.
Sixth, a consortium consisting of the system, APIC, Israel, the US and EU should be formed over Tehran's future, instead of directing Iranian oppositions. The interests of all active and passive parties must be ensured as a priority.
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
Iran: "What is to be done?"
Political and social instability in a country could be considered an advantage for those who are seeking for change.
Public discontent and instability are like raw materials, which have no effects without a manipulation through a political factory. Keep in mind, the success of a colour revolution, or a coup like 2013 Egypt's General Sisi coup, both rely on the very two factors.
Today, Tehran suffers from such a disease. But this situation cannot last as an opportunity for good. The wave of public discontent will eventually turned into the feeling of frustrated that would lead to social collapse and chaos; The situations of Cuba and Venezuela, for instance.
Therefore, an accurate planning for launching a revolution or coup Iran can make the idea “regime change” possible.
Public discontent and instability are like raw materials, which have no effects without a manipulation through a political factory. Keep in mind, the success of a colour revolution, or a coup like 2013 Egypt's General Sisi coup, both rely on the very two factors.
Today, Tehran suffers from such a disease. But this situation cannot last as an opportunity for good. The wave of public discontent will eventually turned into the feeling of frustrated that would lead to social collapse and chaos; The situations of Cuba and Venezuela, for instance.
Therefore, an accurate planning for launching a revolution or coup Iran can make the idea “regime change” possible.
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
Documentation of a Protest
The lesser of two evils principle was overwhelmed by people in the latest US Presidential election. They preferred to encounter the consequences of a tough decision rather than surrendering to fear. This consciousness must be kept alive; meanwhile Donald Trump Presidency might have had a negative impact on audacity of some people.
An effective socio-political revolution or resistance takes place through a long-term scheme, just like growing a plant. Cuban revolution is a good counterexample to display the weakness of rapid acts in this regard. Resistance must not be a burden to the people. One should not call for people for taking another hard decision like what they took in 2016 elections. But it does not mean that the Democratic Party can simply present anyone as its own candidate for the following Congressional and then Presidential elections. Liberalization of the party's platform is also important for the system.
At the present time, unlike what the media and Democrats are trying to induce people to believe that the result of the latest Presidential election was a failure to democracy, the system must ensure the society that the decision was right and a milestone in the way of a forming revolution. It was the actual advent of the "Bern or Bust" pledge; a brave step to push forward the movement.
An effective socio-political revolution or resistance takes place through a long-term scheme, just like growing a plant. Cuban revolution is a good counterexample to display the weakness of rapid acts in this regard. Resistance must not be a burden to the people. One should not call for people for taking another hard decision like what they took in 2016 elections. But it does not mean that the Democratic Party can simply present anyone as its own candidate for the following Congressional and then Presidential elections. Liberalization of the party's platform is also important for the system.
At the present time, unlike what the media and Democrats are trying to induce people to believe that the result of the latest Presidential election was a failure to democracy, the system must ensure the society that the decision was right and a milestone in the way of a forming revolution. It was the actual advent of the "Bern or Bust" pledge; a brave step to push forward the movement.
Tuesday, July 18, 2017
Engineering a Revolution
People consciousness and mass mobilization is required for forming a revolution.
Che Guevara could not achieve his goal in Bolivia because he only intended to design a successful guerrilla warfare. In contrast, defeating the Hitler's Beer Hall Putsch, Castro's Moncada Barracks and 1963 demonstration in Iran, though were not engineered but played leading roles in the revolutions. For starting a revolution, one should capture people's hearts.
A magnificent defeat like the sample of Iranian Green Movement or a beautiful death such as the moment of Che’s execution, which motivate people awaking, are just prerequisite of a revolution. Indeed, the elements of time and nature are the greatest architects in politics.
Today's Iran is ready for a revolution. But it is only an option as long as the game is not out of control. The system must break it to make the revolution a necessity, not a choice.
Che Guevara could not achieve his goal in Bolivia because he only intended to design a successful guerrilla warfare. In contrast, defeating the Hitler's Beer Hall Putsch, Castro's Moncada Barracks and 1963 demonstration in Iran, though were not engineered but played leading roles in the revolutions. For starting a revolution, one should capture people's hearts.
A magnificent defeat like the sample of Iranian Green Movement or a beautiful death such as the moment of Che’s execution, which motivate people awaking, are just prerequisite of a revolution. Indeed, the elements of time and nature are the greatest architects in politics.
Today's Iran is ready for a revolution. But it is only an option as long as the game is not out of control. The system must break it to make the revolution a necessity, not a choice.
Monday, December 1, 2014
Egypt: Counterrevolution
The recent political events of Egypt require engaging to a comparative study of "confiscation revolution".
The guillotine was used instead of the liberal thought of "Rousseau" in French Revolution and a new season of dictatorship began. Iranian Revolution was also confiscated by IRP over a four-year process that was begun from the beginning of new regime.
It should be said in explanation of Iranian Revolution that it was not unreasonable that Michel Foucault was attached and interested to the revolution (in the early of the incident) and wrote articles about it. New Iranian regime allowed people to select their Constitutional Convention's members. That's why representatives of various parties, including Marxists, liberalists, nationalists and even separatists (refer to Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou) participated in the convention and they have designed Iran's constitution with together. Therefore, the presence of new intellectual topics such as "Reification" in the introduction of the constitution is not amazing.
Egypt Revolution was confiscated by generals after/through the fall of Mohamed Morsi and completely cleaning of Muslim Brotherhood party. However, there is a fundamental difference between the recent case and the rest.
Drop of criminal charges from Hosni Mubarak has led to unveil the scheme of revolution confiscation that should be done covertly. As a result, now, Egyptian people know the "January 25" revolution have been confiscated.
The incident will lead to create a strong and active opposition in Egypt. And the more detailed word is that, after the fall of Morsi, only the political Islam supporters became the Egyptian opposition, but through clearing Mubarak charges, all of the revolution supporters have become opposition of Egypt.
The guillotine was used instead of the liberal thought of "Rousseau" in French Revolution and a new season of dictatorship began. Iranian Revolution was also confiscated by IRP over a four-year process that was begun from the beginning of new regime.
It should be said in explanation of Iranian Revolution that it was not unreasonable that Michel Foucault was attached and interested to the revolution (in the early of the incident) and wrote articles about it. New Iranian regime allowed people to select their Constitutional Convention's members. That's why representatives of various parties, including Marxists, liberalists, nationalists and even separatists (refer to Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou) participated in the convention and they have designed Iran's constitution with together. Therefore, the presence of new intellectual topics such as "Reification" in the introduction of the constitution is not amazing.
Egypt Revolution was confiscated by generals after/through the fall of Mohamed Morsi and completely cleaning of Muslim Brotherhood party. However, there is a fundamental difference between the recent case and the rest.
Drop of criminal charges from Hosni Mubarak has led to unveil the scheme of revolution confiscation that should be done covertly. As a result, now, Egyptian people know the "January 25" revolution have been confiscated.
The incident will lead to create a strong and active opposition in Egypt. And the more detailed word is that, after the fall of Morsi, only the political Islam supporters became the Egyptian opposition, but through clearing Mubarak charges, all of the revolution supporters have become opposition of Egypt.
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