Tehran: A Piece of Silence

Many of the violent crimes are motivated by irrational causes. This is the reality of the world; a fact that reminds one that the 'life mechanism' is not everything for everyone, or at least always. 
The US maximum pressure policy on the Islamic Republic has worked is spite of the expectation of some politicians. But the one thing that has been overlooked about Iran for some time and will probably be fixed in the future is the psychological and cultural status of Tehran. The policy of maximum pressure against the Islamic Republic must continue in silence. In such a case, the Iranian government can respond fully to the pressures. Psychological warfare against Tehran only provokes them to show an immediate and emotional reaction. One cannot get on someone's bad side and then expect a rational response. 
Leaders of the Iranian government are mentally unprepared to play a political role; they are attached to a variety of non-political parameters in a political arena, like an actor who is dependent on the psychosocial deterrent elements of his real-life role. Such an actor resists not only nudity but also any role or act that is far from his true character. The director must play the role of a psychologist as well.

Iran: Economic War

The Islamic Republic of Iran has formed its policies based on a warfare strategy so that every single issue could be addressed in this way including disputes with the Washington, Tel Aviv or even domestic concerns over human rights, environment, and educational system. This toxic perspective toward everything may endanger everyone in and out of this regime. The world community is seeking the removal of this strategy from the decision-making table of Tehran. 
In this regard, the nuclear deal was going to be an introduction and not even a chapter for the new story of the Middle East. But the Islamic Republic has demonstrated that it is not ready for playing its part in the new game of the region. 
Anyway, all roads lead to Rome but the Iranian government is just as unaware of the big picture as Iraq's Saddam was. However, what ruined Iraqi dictatorship was more than a decade of harsh sanctions and economic war against Baghdad. And it is exactly what should be launched and its continuity is ensured against Tehran. And there is no need to add that sanctions are only an old and sometimes even symbolic means of economic war; an all-out economic war is needed.

Israel-Palestine: Possible Peace

After decades, Israel and Saudi Arabia as the leading actors of the Middle East, both have indicated true will for governing peace over Israeli-Arab relations in the region. Still, reaching a steady peace between Israel and Palestine definitely requires semi-withdrawal by both parties from their unrealistic positions. However, the lack of common understanding among the involved parties could waste hours of dialogues and frustrate any plans. 
Above all plans and dealings, it must be considered that conservatism is not only the spirit of cultural and political structures of Arab nations but a symbolic criterion of power. Therefore, it is no surprise to find out that changes can only slowly take place in such societies. In sum, Arab states are not ready for great and rapid changes. So it must be figured out that the mere common interests would not lead to a dialogue with common understanding in respect to the mentioned issue. Keep this logic in mind, for making any progress in a traditional society, one should always have an "undo" option, otherwise, the fear of transition from the status quo would hold the society from moving forward.
Therefore, no new element is entered unless by taking the appearance of old and known ones; the change would not be made unless it is infiltrated. For instance, temporary dealings like de facto recognition of Israeli and Palestinian states by both sides can give the confidence to Arabs that changes will not necessarily steady or irreversible.

Iran: An Unwanted War

To avoid an unwanted war, a comprehensive war plan must be provided. 
As it was predicted, Tehran is trying to get a war for its nation. And it is essential to acknowledge the fact that the element of the time takes side with the host country in a conflict, and therefore, "buying some time" is no option for the US government. One can take over the crown in a short time just like Iraq and Libya wars, otherwise, it would be gone for good like many other wars in Vietnam, Syria, Yemen and even the 8-year-war between Iran and Iraq. So in case of lack of victory, it is most convenient for the White House to prepare a list of secondary objectives to be able to safeguard its prestige by accomplishing them. 
And in this regard, the Iranian regime may try to develop the battlefield to areas beyond the country in order to make the U.S. switch its position from offensive to defensive. The best solution to deal with the potential threat is to launch attacks against the capital and other strategic cities that are capable to quickly become guerrilla operations centers in order to trigger a civil war at the same time. Meanwhile, the role of public diplomacy must not be neglected.

Tehran: A War Plan

2006 Lebanon War has always been an ideal model of war before the Islamic Republic of Iran and at the current time, the regime is trying to provoke the U.S. in order to launch such a war; a short-term conflict. 
Iranian leaders have believed that they are able to resist against a short-term war while they are hopeful that the political and economic considerations of Trump administration would restrain a long-term war. For sure, the ultimate winner of a short term-war with all of their desired parameters would not be Tehran since it would leave devastating damages for the Iranian government. Anyway, as everyone knows, Tehran has never had any long-term vision and a short-term victory is all it needs. So, a short-term war would not be a proper option. 
At these critical moments, some find no way but a long-term war and some other is seeking for a negotiation. 
 First, a tempting long-term war is not acceptable. Such a war could occupy a large portion of the U.S. military, politically and economic concentration and it definitely would be a gift to Russia and China. Bear this in mind, the U.S. involvement in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, and consequently, the vacuum of its power in the global balance of power was one of the main causes of re-emergence of the Kremlin's threats in the world area. 
Secondly, a negotiation at this point of time is just like a lottery but it is important to keep the upper hand. 
Three leverages can be assumed against current threats of Iran including economic war, covert war and resorting the UN Security Council and International Law to form multilateral measures against Tehran, which would be more possible in the next weeks.

Iran and Brazil: Directing a Game

All the moans of humans come from one's weakness whether moans of pain or pleasure, which are at the same time ugly and beautiful. 
Tehran is under heavy pressure and is playing as an immature actor. But a true believer of God must not be angry with the Lord even when the Almighty claims everything one has for the game of universe. Although it is not easy to act the role of a loser as well as a winner. However, it is something an actor supposed to do and Iran is no exception. 
Brazil is doing a favor for the Iranian government, and it seems that Bolsonaro, the Brazilian President has no real power over it. Apparently, Brazil is not the lone case in this regard though all of them must be blocked, destroyed and properly reprimanded by the system. 
And finally, stop struggling because it simply gets everything way harder.

21st Century: The Terror Era

The number of civilians who have lost their lives or got injured in the war against terror is indeed no less than the victims of terrorism itself. 
The strategy of Clinton administration in dealing with the terrorist regime of Taliban in Afghanistan was more realistic and less harmful than ‘War on Terror' doctrine of Bush Jr. All the extremist and violent groups or factions would create a terror era in their first and immature power stage. And in this regard, there's no difference between rituals and ideologies; from the Soviet Union and Maoist China to the revolutionary regime of Iran. 
If only corrupt and mischievous leaders are considered the origin of this violence, war could be an option but if the violence and extremist actions arise from a belief or culture like 'Salafism' or 'white supremacy', declaring war would lead them to remain at their immature power stage and therefore, terror era would continue. But if they are given the chance of completing their first stage of power, the world would be granted of the gradual collapse of the terror era. 
The acceleration and containment strategy could be the most convenient response to the current threat of Salafi terrorist groups. The purpose of the strategy is guiding them in a way to make the adult power stage accessible in the shortest time, meanwhile, the level and domain of their threats should be managed.

Syria: The Second Step

Regional and geopolitical objectives of Tehran have way greater positions before the government than its economy. The Iranian economy is an internal player that does not play for domestic games. If one wants to know about the current economic performance of the Islamic Republic, the financial situation of the Hezbollah must be checked over, and not the Tehran stock market.
In a typical 'unbalanced defense' strategy, small players would increasingly rise and fall in order to protect national security. But ironically, the Iranian national security including economic and even political security is going to be sacrificed for saving that very little pawns. Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas are in fact 'pawns' that act as 'queens' for Tehran. Therefore, the regime's existence is relying on them. 
The national security strategy of the Islamic Republic is not merely unbalanced but it is a sick strategy just like the strategic vision of Mussolini in the World War II as it was evidently affected by his personal obsessions. 
Syria and Hezbollah cannot be considered threatening actors of the region but they are definitely the morphine of Tehran.

The 'Middle East Plus Israel' VS. the Middle East's Israel

For years, the Israeli government has pursued an isolationist policy in its both foreign and domestic affairs. Militarism, extremist nationalism and partially discrimination against Israeli Arabs are among consequences of such an approach. Also, growing anti-Israeli sentiment (and not anti-semitism) in the world and even among educated and academic societies cannot be denied. In short, it is not easy to be an Israeli and live abroad; it is a fact that neither Israeli government nor the world public opinion does care about it. 
Although adopting an isolationist policy could be in harmony with the national security of the country for the early decades of its existence but a revision of the policy in the right time would bring extraordinary benefits for about Israel and the region. 
Israel has lost the previous chance of a safe peace in the 1990s i.e. the peace that would not lead to a secondary conflict carrying out by extremist groups. However, a similar opportunity has already been formed. Today, on the one hand, the so-called "Axis of Resistance" including Tehran, Damascus, Hezbollah, and Hamas are utterly weak and fragile and on the other hand, Riyadh desires a permanent peace between Tel Aviv and Ramallah. Netanyahu is also aware of the fact but his new foreign policy of the 'Middle East plus Israel' is not enough. Today is the day of a great leap for Israel; the time of joining the Middle East family and the moment of the birth of a new Middle East.

Shock Crisis

Crisis managing is the antidote of a crisis, which might be as a result of a shock unless the shock itself is a crisis. 
A political shock like mass resignation of a group of parliament's representatives can cause a radical but temporary effect against status quo, apart from leading to a political crisis. Crises are manageable but the very temporary radical effects can only be handled by time and patience. Now, if the number of imposing shocks against a state is more than its time capacity, the crisis of shock is formed. Parameters like the economy, population, demographics, culture, etc. determine the time capacity of a state so that an economic downfall of a state could negatively affect its time capacity. 
 It is predictable that the governments would try to resolve the crises due to shocks (such as diplomatic, economic crises, etc.), at the outset. Whereas, the governments would be suffering from lack of time over tackling the consequences and 'temporary radical effects' of the various and numerous shocks. Therefore, they would attempt to buy some time by resorting a kind of radicalism; in short, the good scenario would be something like Roosevelt's New Deal or positive shocks, while the bad scenario can end up with a version of McCarthyism or martial law. Needless to say that Tehran must be the target of this attack.

Moscow: The Division Strategy

Russia is a real threat to the West including the US, European states and definitely Israel. Thus, Middle East issues or the current differences among the Western bloc should not distract them from the danger of Moscow. 
A divided Middle East or Europe is the objective of Kremlin. Russia's strategy could disturb the comfort zone of the West through the years. And meanwhile, it could play a critical role in almost every important negotiation table by taking a peaceful gesture including from Iran's nuclear issue to the Syrian and Ukraine crisis. Therefore, Russia has won a lot of points in this game; it has made the West believe that they really are dependent on Russia in the global leadership, which has improved Russia's political prestige. And let alone that Moscow geopolitically benefits from this procedure. 
It is more convenient to directly or secretly talk or negotiate with troubled parties rather than involving Russia to the negotiation table, just like the case of North Korea. This approach can gradually decrease the role of Moscow in the global management and the Western states can easily amplify the pressure against the Kremlin to stop the game.

Iran: A Greenhouse Revolution

The Saudi government intends to launch a military assault on Iran. But since the idea of such an attack is not in compliance with international law and may destabilize the regional order, the system disagrees with it. Nevertheless, Riyadh and the other states may provide the situation for implementing the R2P. It is evident, both domestic and international considerations should be met for application of R2P. For instance, the EU's green light and support would be among notable international factors in this regard. 
A critical economic situation for many of the Middle East nations is not a sufficient motive force for starting a revolution. Gaza and the city of Sanaa in Yemen must be convincing examples in this respect; even the collapse of living standard in these areas could not make the people rebel against their corrupt political leaders. 
The harsh economic conditions might be the seeds of a revolution but there is faint chance to achieve such a natural revolution in Iran. But the current economic circumstances in the country facilitate the possibility of making an armed opposition group. And this crafted rebel group would play two functions: overthrowing the regime and activating the option of R2P for the other states against Tehran.

Tehran: Army's Policy

A democratic and stable state forms the society and universities on the pillar of diversity while it makes the army on the basis of uniformity, but an unstable dictatorship acts the reverse. 
The army that is shaped upon money and force is a potential threat to the security. Whereas, money (for commanders) and force over soldiers are the foundation of armed forces of Iran. The forces would probably join people in case of mass uprising, and thus, a civil war begins. Keep in mind, today's Syria is the product of Free Syrian Army, the forces who left the Syrian Army. 
The system must offer new identity, safe residence and money for Iranian commanders who render sensitive and classified information. 
Current Iranian soldiers are tomorrow's potential insurgents. The system must provide a set of acceptable financial and non-financial benefits in order to encourage them to leave the army and join the militia, so that there is no need to non-native mercenaries.

Iran: Anomie Program

The system believes in no faith but good faith. 
Several conflicting elements are forming within Iran that warn a possible anomie just like Libya. Growing public dissatisfaction on the one hand, and on the other hand, as everyone must know, "chaos is a ladder" for Iran's Revolutionary Guards. 
Iran's civil war is now possible but it seems that the Revolutionary Guards is ready for that. Therefore, it is not a good time for a mass revolt. The system should disrupt their calculation and make sure that the circumstances are suitable for an uprising or even a civil war with a clear and promising future. In this regard: 
First, Syria's Assad removal must be back on the agenda again.
Second, Saudi Arabia should be encouraged to declare a conditional peace with Yemen's Houthi insurgents that entails provisions against Tehran such as cutting off all ties with Iran.
Third, economic and political expense of Iran in Iraq must be boosted. It is possible by turning the country into a serious competition field between Riyadh and Tehran. Surely, both Iraqis and Saudis would welcome this situation. 
Forth, the concerning ties of Saudi-Pakistan might be ended with an opportunity for Iran. Fortunately, the US enjoys of required means and advantages to fix this situation. And let alone that Pakistan army, intelligence (ISI) and Taliban forces can freely and independently take action, which might be handy. 
Fifth, the system and Washington must provide proper incentive packages for Iranian people. Given the inefficacy of Cuban version of this measure, the system should work with European capitals to form comprehensive packages over migration and other humanitarian requirements, which are essential for the West to gain the upper hand and take the lead. 
Sixth, a consortium consisting of the system, APIC, Israel, the US and EU should be formed over Tehran's future, instead of directing Iranian oppositions. The interests of all active and passive parties must be ensured as a priority.

Israel-Palestine: R2P

A domestic issue with international side effects is a global issue.
The current situation governing Israel-Palestine cannot be found merely domestic issues of these parties. The dispute of Israeli and Palestinian states itself has been the origin of a few wars and emergence of militia and terrorist groups in the region, which are threats against all. 
The continues violation of human rights and humanitarian law by third parties like Hamas and Hezbollah under the shade of the dispute is now identified a constant parameter in this regard. Therefore, the world community and the major Arab states have this right to take advantage of all means to settle peace by invoking the principle of Responsibility to Protect. It is evident, the principle would legitimate any essential decision on behalf of Palestinian nation by the world community if the Palestinian state fails to accomplish its part. 
At the end, the model of multilateral negotiation among Israel, West Bank and the GCC is recommended.

Iran: "What is to be done?"

Political and social instability in a country could be considered an advantage for those who are seeking for change. 
Public discontent and instability are like raw materials, which have no effects without a manipulation through a political factory. Keep in mind, the success of a colour revolution, or a coup like 2013 Egypt's General Sisi coup, both rely on the very two factors. 
Today, Tehran suffers from such a disease. But this situation cannot last as an opportunity for good. The wave of public discontent will eventually turned into the feeling of frustrated that would lead to social collapse and chaos; The situations of Cuba and Venezuela, for instance. 
Therefore, an accurate planning for launching a revolution or coup Iran can make the idea “regime change” possible.

Israel-Palestine: "Peace Against Enemies"

Although the Middle East has opened a widespread opportunities for the U.S. but the recent rapid developments in the arena of international relations and technology have raised the necessity for the Washington D.C. to gradually decrease its focus on the region and instead, strongly address the growing issues of Russia, China and new order in the east Asia. Therefore, the Palestine issue as the first and the most significant problem of the Middle East must be resolved. 
Definitely, settlement of the issue would be in favor of all sides including Israel and the major Arab states. Without a doubt, a permanent peace agreement between Tel Aviv and Ramallah could be also considered a geostrategic attack on Tehran. The predictable results of such a deal can put an end to the diplomatic isolation of Israel in the region and change the current balance of power against the Islamic Republic. 
According to historical experience, economic sanctions cannot singly realize a specific objective but also might provoke the rogue state to aggressive reactions. Thus, the Washington D.C. should target  geostrategic interests of Tehran in order to strengthen the functions of the recent sanctions.

Iran: The Control

There is no political "Big Bang" to define the existence of international order. 
The main objective of appearance of Iran's nuclear case and then the nuclear deal has been the key world of "control". It is evident that Iranian nuclear program has been always a pretext. Tehran is a good player that plays for a bad side, which makes it a de facto threat but it might also be considered a potential opportunity in long-term. 
A sudden and total withdrawal of the nuclear deal by the U.S. can drive everything in this regard out of control, which is against the primary goal and even the true will of the White House. It cannot be denied that the current nuclear deal could not fulfill the mentioned demand and purpose, but it can be used as the board of a game. 
Unlike a big explosion, an engineered explosion can guide the subject and take any side effects under the control. If the simple purpose are correcting and guiding the reactions of Tehran, the Washington should gradually withdraw the deal, whereas it supports the action by carrot and stick. In fact, partial withdrawal of the nuclear deal would performs as a game that should be implemented by the means of rewards and punishments in order to finally break the resistance of the counter side.

Modern Arabia and Neo Middle East

Emergence of new elements in the Middle East can lead one to this notion that the result of the Syrian civil war will no more leave any significant effect on the balance of power in the region. 
If Saudis seek to buy some times and distract the public opinion from ongoing military failures in the abroad through reforms, it should be argued that the possible end of wars on Yemen and Syria, will not considered establishment of an steady security in the Middle East and the chance of starting a new conflict will not be removed. But if Riyadh intends to have an influence on the regional order by initiating the domestic reforms, it can be predicted that first, the objective of new Middle East will not be beyond the reach, and secondly, "militarism" will lose its position as the main succeeding factor in the region. 
Nevertheless, the actions of active actors in the Syria can transfer signals that should be closely monitored. The behavior of Turkey that does not respect to any specific order and display an unstable stance toward its neighbors should be properly addressed and responded.

Tehran and Thai Role Model

The recent Iranian widespread protest has revealed the weaknesses of the government. The body of Iran's army is going to be vanished from within; let alone the soldiers. It can also be learned from the mass demonstration that only a spark is enough to light all candles.
These materials can simplify the agenda toward Iran: investing on useful persons and eliminating genuine threats in the army. In fact, constant removal of the threats poses as a shield in this regard. It seems that 2014 Thai revolutionary coup can be a proper model for Iran.