Resistance Movements: Forecast

Che Guevara was an intellectual and freedom fighter who lost his life through the way of liberation for people. Why did such a man design a dictatorship for Cuba after defeating the dictator regime of Batista? 
Historical experience indicates that the main goal of people across the world is peace. Therefore, most people do not join resistance movements to change their situation to better or even if they join the movements, they would not remain a member or supporter for a long time. Both, failure of resistance movements and formation of dictatorship after victory of these movements are caused from the very desire of people to peace and security. 
So that even if people accept resistance for a while, they would not bear it for decades while a revolutionary state needs support of people to overcome domestic and foreign threats. It was the fact that Cuban revolutionaries encountered that and tried to tackle it by establishing a new dictatorship. Che was not a liar but himself was architect of Cuban dictatorship with the (former) Soviet model, while Fidel Castro and most of Cuban guerillas including Aleida March, the last spouse of Che, were not communists. 
In conclusion, according to the facts, Republican faction of Spain would establish a government similar to Eastern Bloc if they won the civil war. 
Surely, one of the main incentives of this paper is to emphasize the importance of logical forecast without any attachment in politics.
Without a doubt all Muslim states would recognize Israel after a possible deal between Tel Aviv and Ramallah. And since results of such a deal would be global and regional isolation for any country that opposes Israel, Tehran is requested to coordinate its foreign policy with new realities in a mid-term process. 
Also due commitment to human rights which is necessary to be acknowledged by all, the system continues increasing expense of alliance with old children of Riyadh for the West. And from now on, black torture against Saudi victims must be put on the agenda. But only mutilation of arms, legs, toes and fingers, minus thumbs are acceptable as torture. And moans of victims must be recorded; some filmmakers want real stuff! One can find a few useful parts even in a broken PC. At the end, the movie project of "Rumi" must clear the fact that this intellectual poet was Persian. And this work must not contradict his Islamic thought.

Iran and Cuba: Soft Resistance

As it was predicted, Havana-Washington diplomatic relations re-establishment had no influence on the domestic and foreign policy of Cuba. Cuba's new resolution on the political status of Puerto Rico has been issued at the UN about two months ago. Accordingly, Washington is requested to stop Puerto Rico colonialism and occupation as well as releasing Oscar Lopez, the Puerto Rican independence activist and political prisoner. The UN Decolonization Committee has already adopted more than 30 resolutions and decisions on the issue of Puerto Rico, all submitted by Cuba over the past 15 years. While Puerto Rico is scheduled to be annexed to the U.S. in January 2021. 
Cuba proved a reality; the strategy of "soft resistance" or "diplomatic resistance" is the most effective forms of resistance in the 21st century. Although Washington has maintained the sanctions against Cuba under the pressures of the system, but it cannot be denied that the Cuban political pressures overcame Washington. Both Democratic and Republican parties agreed to the resumption of diplomatic relations with Cuba as well as remove its name from the list of countries sponsors of terrorism. 
The Castro medical diplomacy could obviously win the Washington's militaristic foreign policy. As a result of this diplomacy, many doctors are sent to the crisis and war zones on behalf of Cuba to treat the injured and patients. And it should be add that Cuba could increase its friends in Latin America in the current century. 
Iran could also win its regional oppositions in the field of foreign policy by resorting to the model of "soft resistance" and as Bob Corker confessed, Iran could change the power's balance of the Middle East. If Iran uses this model as its foreign policy strategy, then more successes are achieved.

Richard Nixon, Willy Brandt and Fidel Castro

Richard Nixon and Fidel Casto

Willy Brandt and Fidel Castro

Cuba-US: Behind the Curtain

Cuba-US diplomatic relation is more a threat before it can be recognized as an opportunity. Because like Assad and Kim Jong-un, the Castro brothers need their power to be survived more than anything else and Russia and China are the only powers can officially and openly defend Cuba, Syria and North Korea dictatorial regimes. So the political orientation of Cuban government will not likely change after gaining some political points from the White House. 
It should be also added that Washington has attempted several times to carry out a coup in Venezuela, and Havana is aware of the fact and certainly feels concern therein, specially that the last Code Coup against Caracas was foiled right after Obama's call to re-establishing ties with Cuba. In such circumstances, Cuban political need grows toward its supporters containing Russia, not the US. 
Keep in mind, standing and acting for unessential social or political goals is allowed even in the darkest states of human rights such as authoritarian rule of Cuba, therefore Castro's daughter can be an activist for LGBT (and be a round the world traveler while other Cuban citizens cannot) but key changes are only possible through democratic elections like what the world has seen in Greece, something that is not available in Cuban government. 
Apart from what has been said, there are also external factors which send alarming signals on the establishment of the political ties. 
First, Putin regime has begun a new round of Russian diplomacy to maintain the hegemony of Moscow. Accordingly more points are given to allies and friends of Kremlin. 
Second, United States diplomacy is experiencing the weakest management over the past half century. John Kerry, the Center of God's friend has have the weakest performance among the secretaries of state over the past 50 years based on the recent survey of the Foreign Policy publication that was made of international relations scholars votes. 
And now, the White House officials should disprove this argument before taking any further steps, if it is not an Israeli project to detriment of the order.

Cuba: Reformation and Order in Latin America

Civic reform process began in Cuba, after Raul Castro came to power. Some Politicians and analysts and most of American corporations loyal to Moscow, in America, considered these reforms as a sign of change in Cuba. They tried to convince Washington to begin a new period of relations with Cuba, through a conciliatory behavior.
There is no need to give a respond to the supporters of this idea. Simply we should ask them that what would guarantee the interests of America and preserve stability in Latin America?
Maintaining the current order in Latin America and Caribbean. Maintaining the order in the region, not only guarantee the interest of America, but also avoids the instability and war. If different political camps (Moscow and Washington) are located in Latin America, the political development of Latin America will happen not only by competition but by wars. Cuba is not the same as North Korea. Pyongyang is a dictatorship which is against the Washington, but it has no incentive to change the region order. Cuba also is not the same as Iran, because international political trends in Iran are changing. Tehran has gradually retreated from their targets in order to promote the Islamic Revolution and change the balance of power in the Middle East. However, Cuba is also seeking to change the established order in Latin America and it attempts to play the role of messenger for "another order" in Latin America, with assistance from countries such as Venezuela and Nicaragua. Since Cuba is a country with the most suppressions of important freedoms such as freedom of expression and information so social reforms in Cuba and Mariela Castro scenario (Raul's daughter) is just for revitalization of Cuban revolution hidden behind a new mask. Today, Raul Castro is following-up the methods of Deng Xiaoping and Mikhail Gorbachev.

Cuba isn't the Second China

Maybe if the People's Republic of China wasn't accepted as a member of the United Nations it wouldn't be as powerful, as it today is. The approval rating for UN and also the Security Council were given to People's Republic of China, during the presidency of Nixon. This approval rating was given to China in exchange for leaving alone North Vietnam or in other word, the Viet Cong. The Vietnamese war ended with the fall of Saigon, but China gained such an approval, by which it interrupts the globalization order and directs it against democracy, human rights, and environmental law.
Of course Cuba doesn't have the capability to become a second China but it's a potential Russian base in the American Continent. The isolation that U.S compelled to Cubans made Russia the mere survival Guarantee of Cuba. All governments are definitely struggling to survive. Russia sold the privilege of survival guarantee to Cuba and North Korea, when every other countries in the world, isolated the two aforementioned countries. How much does it costs?
-A share of the Capital!
Anyways, considering the return of Kremlin's attention to Havana, the only approach that can be adopted is resumption of imposition of political and economic isolation against Cuba. But this isn't solely enough; rather, Latin America requires independent political powers in order to create an alliance in Latin America and Caribbean. Doubtlessly, guaranteed such an alliance is organized adequately, it will eliminate the Russian political influence zone in Latin America and Caribbean.
The Ancient Roman Empire's tactic is a proper model for controlling Latin America and Caribbean. Roman Empire appointed local governors for its occupied lands which where inhabited by foreign citizens, and avoided direct governance over those lands.
Controlling Latin America and Caribbean is possible through the Latin American powers which are allies with Washington. Otherwise, we should only hope that the reformations in Cuba won't lead to the power development of this Russian island. We shouldn't forget that the number of Latin American Caribbean citizens residing in the U.S is more than the number of U.S citizens residing in the Latin American countries. An allied Latin America and Caribbean can makes use of its abroad-residing-citizens as a tool for expanding its influence zone, just as the U.S federal government did to Texas back in 1848, when it was part of Mexico.