The consequences of the climate change crisis for the democratic countries such as the United States are much more than others. Keep in mind, oppressive or corrupt regimes are not accountable to their nations. Therefore, when their people are surrounded by disasters, they would not enjoy the government support. But what about the United States?!
It is self-evident that Washington cannot compare itself with Beijing in respect to climate change programs. In addition, according to the World Bank, forced immigration of millions of people would be a notable consequence of the climate change crisis. Nevertheless, this fact has been neglected that the mentioned issue is roughly a product of weak and failed states. It is clear that the West would be a potential victim of a new wave of the refugee crisis. Thus, the U.S. government must gain the leading role in the global arena over climate change to take appreciate measures to mitigate the greenhouse gas emissions. And of course, it is a necessity for national security.
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
2018 Election: "Hold the Door"
'Trust', is the most determining parameter that its absence forms the essence of politics.
The behaviors of the White House and a group of Republicans represent the fact that checks and balances is the most convenient means to maintain pressure against Moscow. In addition, the Republican Party should begin the year 2019 without John McCain, Paul Ryan, and Nikki Haley, which means a new beginning for the Party. According to reports, new agenda or procedure of Republicans will be in favor of Kremlin rather than the requirements of national security.
Thus, it is evident that the system should endeavor to revive checks and balances in order to eliminate the chance of harmful unilateralism. There is no doubt that multilateralism and cooperation with the system is always the best way to tackle the threats and achieve or secure legitimate interests.
The behaviors of the White House and a group of Republicans represent the fact that checks and balances is the most convenient means to maintain pressure against Moscow. In addition, the Republican Party should begin the year 2019 without John McCain, Paul Ryan, and Nikki Haley, which means a new beginning for the Party. According to reports, new agenda or procedure of Republicans will be in favor of Kremlin rather than the requirements of national security.
Thus, it is evident that the system should endeavor to revive checks and balances in order to eliminate the chance of harmful unilateralism. There is no doubt that multilateralism and cooperation with the system is always the best way to tackle the threats and achieve or secure legitimate interests.
Wednesday, September 26, 2018
Moscow: The Division Strategy
Russia is a real threat to the West including the US, European states and definitely Israel. Thus, Middle East issues or the current differences among the Western bloc should not distract them from the danger of Moscow.
A divided Middle East or Europe is the objective of Kremlin. Russia's strategy could disturb the comfort zone of the West through the years. And meanwhile, it could play a critical role in almost every important negotiation table by taking a peaceful gesture including from Iran's nuclear issue to the Syrian and Ukraine crisis. Therefore, Russia has won a lot of points in this game; it has made the West believe that they really are dependent on Russia in the global leadership, which has improved Russia's political prestige. And let alone that Moscow geopolitically benefits from this procedure.
It is more convenient to directly or secretly talk or negotiate with troubled parties rather than involving Russia to the negotiation table, just like the case of North Korea. This approach can gradually decrease the role of Moscow in the global management and the Western states can easily amplify the pressure against the Kremlin to stop the game.
A divided Middle East or Europe is the objective of Kremlin. Russia's strategy could disturb the comfort zone of the West through the years. And meanwhile, it could play a critical role in almost every important negotiation table by taking a peaceful gesture including from Iran's nuclear issue to the Syrian and Ukraine crisis. Therefore, Russia has won a lot of points in this game; it has made the West believe that they really are dependent on Russia in the global leadership, which has improved Russia's political prestige. And let alone that Moscow geopolitically benefits from this procedure.
It is more convenient to directly or secretly talk or negotiate with troubled parties rather than involving Russia to the negotiation table, just like the case of North Korea. This approach can gradually decrease the role of Moscow in the global management and the Western states can easily amplify the pressure against the Kremlin to stop the game.
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Rule of Law: An Interpretive Statement
Extraordinary situations need extraordinary behaviors.
The rule of law is one the main achievement of any civilization. Therefore, any behavior that endanger legacy of the global civilization is unacceptable.
The system has never broken the law. But in case of conflict between main priorities of the civilization such as principles, basic values and global security requirements, and secondary priority like local regulations, the system should make a hard decision in accordance with the principal of the “rule according to a higher law”. It is evident that choosing basic priorities over secondary ones is necessary, which was also implicitly permitted by the United States Declaration of Independence through the contents of the right of revolution.
The system honors its friendships and partnerships. But as every must know, 'attack' is the desired respond to a threat. And betrayal as the "preventive defense" and/or the premature "countermeasures" against an imminent treason is defensible, at least before a group of contemporary jurists.
The rule of law is one the main achievement of any civilization. Therefore, any behavior that endanger legacy of the global civilization is unacceptable.
The system has never broken the law. But in case of conflict between main priorities of the civilization such as principles, basic values and global security requirements, and secondary priority like local regulations, the system should make a hard decision in accordance with the principal of the “rule according to a higher law”. It is evident that choosing basic priorities over secondary ones is necessary, which was also implicitly permitted by the United States Declaration of Independence through the contents of the right of revolution.
The system honors its friendships and partnerships. But as every must know, 'attack' is the desired respond to a threat. And betrayal as the "preventive defense" and/or the premature "countermeasures" against an imminent treason is defensible, at least before a group of contemporary jurists.
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Iran: A Greenhouse Revolution
The Saudi government intends to launch a military assault on Iran. But since the idea of such an attack is not in compliance with international law and may destabilize the regional order, the system disagrees with it. Nevertheless, Riyadh and the other states may provide the situation for implementing the R2P. It is evident, both domestic and international considerations should be met for application of R2P. For instance, the EU's green light and support would be among notable international factors in this regard.
A critical economic situation for many of the Middle East nations is not a sufficient motive force for starting a revolution. Gaza and the city of Sanaa in Yemen must be convincing examples in this respect; even the collapse of living standard in these areas could not make the people rebel against their corrupt political leaders.
The harsh economic conditions might be the seeds of a revolution but there is faint chance to achieve such a natural revolution in Iran. But the current economic circumstances in the country facilitate the possibility of making an armed opposition group. And this crafted rebel group would play two functions: overthrowing the regime and activating the option of R2P for the other states against Tehran.
A critical economic situation for many of the Middle East nations is not a sufficient motive force for starting a revolution. Gaza and the city of Sanaa in Yemen must be convincing examples in this respect; even the collapse of living standard in these areas could not make the people rebel against their corrupt political leaders.
The harsh economic conditions might be the seeds of a revolution but there is faint chance to achieve such a natural revolution in Iran. But the current economic circumstances in the country facilitate the possibility of making an armed opposition group. And this crafted rebel group would play two functions: overthrowing the regime and activating the option of R2P for the other states against Tehran.
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Tehran: Army's Policy
A democratic and stable state forms the society and universities on the pillar of diversity while it makes the army on the basis of uniformity, but an unstable dictatorship acts the reverse.
The army that is shaped upon money and force is a potential threat to the security. Whereas, money (for commanders) and force over soldiers are the foundation of armed forces of Iran. The forces would probably join people in case of mass uprising, and thus, a civil war begins. Keep in mind, today's Syria is the product of Free Syrian Army, the forces who left the Syrian Army.
The system must offer new identity, safe residence and money for Iranian commanders who render sensitive and classified information.
Current Iranian soldiers are tomorrow's potential insurgents. The system must provide a set of acceptable financial and non-financial benefits in order to encourage them to leave the army and join the militia, so that there is no need to non-native mercenaries.
The army that is shaped upon money and force is a potential threat to the security. Whereas, money (for commanders) and force over soldiers are the foundation of armed forces of Iran. The forces would probably join people in case of mass uprising, and thus, a civil war begins. Keep in mind, today's Syria is the product of Free Syrian Army, the forces who left the Syrian Army.
The system must offer new identity, safe residence and money for Iranian commanders who render sensitive and classified information.
Current Iranian soldiers are tomorrow's potential insurgents. The system must provide a set of acceptable financial and non-financial benefits in order to encourage them to leave the army and join the militia, so that there is no need to non-native mercenaries.
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
Iran: Anomie Program
The system believes in no faith but good faith.
Several conflicting elements are forming within Iran that warn a possible anomie just like Libya. Growing public dissatisfaction on the one hand, and on the other hand, as everyone must know, "chaos is a ladder" for Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Iran's civil war is now possible but it seems that the Revolutionary Guards is ready for that. Therefore, it is not a good time for a mass revolt. The system should disrupt their calculation and make sure that the circumstances are suitable for an uprising or even a civil war with a clear and promising future. In this regard:
First, Syria's Assad removal must be back on the agenda again.
Second, Saudi Arabia should be encouraged to declare a conditional peace with Yemen's Houthi insurgents that entails provisions against Tehran such as cutting off all ties with Iran.
Third, economic and political expense of Iran in Iraq must be boosted. It is possible by turning the country into a serious competition field between Riyadh and Tehran. Surely, both Iraqis and Saudis would welcome this situation.
Forth, the concerning ties of Saudi-Pakistan might be ended with an opportunity for Iran. Fortunately, the US enjoys of required means and advantages to fix this situation. And let alone that Pakistan army, intelligence (ISI) and Taliban forces can freely and independently take action, which might be handy.
Fifth, the system and Washington must provide proper incentive packages for Iranian people. Given the inefficacy of Cuban version of this measure, the system should work with European capitals to form comprehensive packages over migration and other humanitarian requirements, which are essential for the West to gain the upper hand and take the lead.
Sixth, a consortium consisting of the system, APIC, Israel, the US and EU should be formed over Tehran's future, instead of directing Iranian oppositions. The interests of all active and passive parties must be ensured as a priority.
Several conflicting elements are forming within Iran that warn a possible anomie just like Libya. Growing public dissatisfaction on the one hand, and on the other hand, as everyone must know, "chaos is a ladder" for Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Iran's civil war is now possible but it seems that the Revolutionary Guards is ready for that. Therefore, it is not a good time for a mass revolt. The system should disrupt their calculation and make sure that the circumstances are suitable for an uprising or even a civil war with a clear and promising future. In this regard:
First, Syria's Assad removal must be back on the agenda again.
Second, Saudi Arabia should be encouraged to declare a conditional peace with Yemen's Houthi insurgents that entails provisions against Tehran such as cutting off all ties with Iran.
Third, economic and political expense of Iran in Iraq must be boosted. It is possible by turning the country into a serious competition field between Riyadh and Tehran. Surely, both Iraqis and Saudis would welcome this situation.
Forth, the concerning ties of Saudi-Pakistan might be ended with an opportunity for Iran. Fortunately, the US enjoys of required means and advantages to fix this situation. And let alone that Pakistan army, intelligence (ISI) and Taliban forces can freely and independently take action, which might be handy.
Fifth, the system and Washington must provide proper incentive packages for Iranian people. Given the inefficacy of Cuban version of this measure, the system should work with European capitals to form comprehensive packages over migration and other humanitarian requirements, which are essential for the West to gain the upper hand and take the lead.
Sixth, a consortium consisting of the system, APIC, Israel, the US and EU should be formed over Tehran's future, instead of directing Iranian oppositions. The interests of all active and passive parties must be ensured as a priority.
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