After decades, Israel and Saudi Arabia as the leading actors of the Middle East, both have indicated true will for governing peace over Israeli-Arab relations in the region. Still, reaching a steady peace between Israel and Palestine definitely requires semi-withdrawal by both parties from their unrealistic positions. However, the lack of common understanding among the involved parties could waste hours of dialogues and frustrate any plans.
Above all plans and dealings, it must be considered that conservatism is not only the spirit of cultural and political structures of Arab nations but a symbolic criterion of power. Therefore, it is no surprise to find out that changes can only slowly take place in such societies. In sum, Arab states are not ready for great and rapid changes. So it must be figured out that the mere common interests would not lead to a dialogue with common understanding in respect to the mentioned issue. Keep this logic in mind, for making any progress in a traditional society, one should always have an "undo" option, otherwise, the fear of transition from the status quo would hold the society from moving forward.
Therefore, no new element is entered unless by taking the appearance of old and known ones; the change would not be made unless it is infiltrated. For instance, temporary dealings like de facto recognition of Israeli and Palestinian states by both sides can give the confidence to Arabs that changes will not necessarily steady or irreversible.
Wednesday, July 3, 2019
Wednesday, June 19, 2019
Iran: An Unwanted War
To avoid an unwanted war, a comprehensive war plan must be provided.
As it was predicted, Tehran is trying to get a war for its nation. And it is essential to acknowledge the fact that the element of the time takes side with the host country in a conflict, and therefore, "buying some time" is no option for the US government. One can take over the crown in a short time just like Iraq and Libya wars, otherwise, it would be gone for good like many other wars in Vietnam, Syria, Yemen and even the 8-year-war between Iran and Iraq. So in case of lack of victory, it is most convenient for the White House to prepare a list of secondary objectives to be able to safeguard its prestige by accomplishing them.
And in this regard, the Iranian regime may try to develop the battlefield to areas beyond the country in order to make the U.S. switch its position from offensive to defensive. The best solution to deal with the potential threat is to launch attacks against the capital and other strategic cities that are capable to quickly become guerrilla operations centers in order to trigger a civil war at the same time. Meanwhile, the role of public diplomacy must not be neglected.
As it was predicted, Tehran is trying to get a war for its nation. And it is essential to acknowledge the fact that the element of the time takes side with the host country in a conflict, and therefore, "buying some time" is no option for the US government. One can take over the crown in a short time just like Iraq and Libya wars, otherwise, it would be gone for good like many other wars in Vietnam, Syria, Yemen and even the 8-year-war between Iran and Iraq. So in case of lack of victory, it is most convenient for the White House to prepare a list of secondary objectives to be able to safeguard its prestige by accomplishing them.
And in this regard, the Iranian regime may try to develop the battlefield to areas beyond the country in order to make the U.S. switch its position from offensive to defensive. The best solution to deal with the potential threat is to launch attacks against the capital and other strategic cities that are capable to quickly become guerrilla operations centers in order to trigger a civil war at the same time. Meanwhile, the role of public diplomacy must not be neglected.
Wednesday, June 5, 2019
Tehran: A War Plan
2006 Lebanon War has always been an ideal model of war before the Islamic Republic of Iran and at the current time, the regime is trying to provoke the U.S. in order to launch such a war; a short-term conflict.
Iranian leaders have believed that they are able to resist against a short-term war while they are hopeful that the political and economic considerations of Trump administration would restrain a long-term war. For sure, the ultimate winner of a short term-war with all of their desired parameters would not be Tehran since it would leave devastating damages for the Iranian government. Anyway, as everyone knows, Tehran has never had any long-term vision and a short-term victory is all it needs. So, a short-term war would not be a proper option.
At these critical moments, some find no way but a long-term war and some other is seeking for a negotiation.
First, a tempting long-term war is not acceptable. Such a war could occupy a large portion of the U.S. military, politically and economic concentration and it definitely would be a gift to Russia and China. Bear this in mind, the U.S. involvement in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, and consequently, the vacuum of its power in the global balance of power was one of the main causes of re-emergence of the Kremlin's threats in the world area.
Secondly, a negotiation at this point of time is just like a lottery but it is important to keep the upper hand.
Three leverages can be assumed against current threats of Iran including economic war, covert war and resorting the UN Security Council and International Law to form multilateral measures against Tehran, which would be more possible in the next weeks.
Iranian leaders have believed that they are able to resist against a short-term war while they are hopeful that the political and economic considerations of Trump administration would restrain a long-term war. For sure, the ultimate winner of a short term-war with all of their desired parameters would not be Tehran since it would leave devastating damages for the Iranian government. Anyway, as everyone knows, Tehran has never had any long-term vision and a short-term victory is all it needs. So, a short-term war would not be a proper option.
At these critical moments, some find no way but a long-term war and some other is seeking for a negotiation.
First, a tempting long-term war is not acceptable. Such a war could occupy a large portion of the U.S. military, politically and economic concentration and it definitely would be a gift to Russia and China. Bear this in mind, the U.S. involvement in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, and consequently, the vacuum of its power in the global balance of power was one of the main causes of re-emergence of the Kremlin's threats in the world area.
Secondly, a negotiation at this point of time is just like a lottery but it is important to keep the upper hand.
Three leverages can be assumed against current threats of Iran including economic war, covert war and resorting the UN Security Council and International Law to form multilateral measures against Tehran, which would be more possible in the next weeks.
Wednesday, May 22, 2019
Iran and Brazil: Directing a Game
All the moans of humans come from one's weakness whether moans of pain or pleasure, which are at the same time ugly and beautiful.
Tehran is under heavy pressure and is playing as an immature actor. But a true believer of God must not be angry with the Lord even when the Almighty claims everything one has for the game of universe. Although it is not easy to act the role of a loser as well as a winner. However, it is something an actor supposed to do and Iran is no exception.
Brazil is doing a favor for the Iranian government, and it seems that Bolsonaro, the Brazilian President has no real power over it. Apparently, Brazil is not the lone case in this regard though all of them must be blocked, destroyed and properly reprimanded by the system.
And finally, stop struggling because it simply gets everything way harder.
Tehran is under heavy pressure and is playing as an immature actor. But a true believer of God must not be angry with the Lord even when the Almighty claims everything one has for the game of universe. Although it is not easy to act the role of a loser as well as a winner. However, it is something an actor supposed to do and Iran is no exception.
Brazil is doing a favor for the Iranian government, and it seems that Bolsonaro, the Brazilian President has no real power over it. Apparently, Brazil is not the lone case in this regard though all of them must be blocked, destroyed and properly reprimanded by the system.
And finally, stop struggling because it simply gets everything way harder.
Wednesday, May 8, 2019
21st Century: The Terror Era
The number of civilians who have lost their lives or got injured in the war against terror is indeed no less than the victims of terrorism itself.
The strategy of Clinton administration in dealing with the terrorist regime of Taliban in Afghanistan was more realistic and less harmful than ‘War on Terror' doctrine of Bush Jr. All the extremist and violent groups or factions would create a terror era in their first and immature power stage. And in this regard, there's no difference between rituals and ideologies; from the Soviet Union and Maoist China to the revolutionary regime of Iran.
If only corrupt and mischievous leaders are considered the origin of this violence, war could be an option but if the violence and extremist actions arise from a belief or culture like 'Salafism' or 'white supremacy', declaring war would lead them to remain at their immature power stage and therefore, terror era would continue. But if they are given the chance of completing their first stage of power, the world would be granted of the gradual collapse of the terror era.
The acceleration and containment strategy could be the most convenient response to the current threat of Salafi terrorist groups. The purpose of the strategy is guiding them in a way to make the adult power stage accessible in the shortest time, meanwhile, the level and domain of their threats should be managed.
The strategy of Clinton administration in dealing with the terrorist regime of Taliban in Afghanistan was more realistic and less harmful than ‘War on Terror' doctrine of Bush Jr. All the extremist and violent groups or factions would create a terror era in their first and immature power stage. And in this regard, there's no difference between rituals and ideologies; from the Soviet Union and Maoist China to the revolutionary regime of Iran.
If only corrupt and mischievous leaders are considered the origin of this violence, war could be an option but if the violence and extremist actions arise from a belief or culture like 'Salafism' or 'white supremacy', declaring war would lead them to remain at their immature power stage and therefore, terror era would continue. But if they are given the chance of completing their first stage of power, the world would be granted of the gradual collapse of the terror era.
The acceleration and containment strategy could be the most convenient response to the current threat of Salafi terrorist groups. The purpose of the strategy is guiding them in a way to make the adult power stage accessible in the shortest time, meanwhile, the level and domain of their threats should be managed.
Thursday, April 25, 2019
Russia and the Realpolitik
The deathliest weapon of modern Russia is no ideology or atomic bombs but the ability to take advantage of the realpolitik.
In plain language, realpolitik means pursuing the ultimate goals without considering any manmade and abstractive redlines such as national pride, religion, ideology, custom, ethics or even personal arrogant and social credibility.
The Russian realpolitik has provided a significant velocity and flexibility in political planning and engineering for Moscow, though the arrogant of the Kremlin leadership has made some unnecessary obstacles for the Russian government.
In contrast, the system has also tried to boost its efficiency by crossing the line to obtain the absolute freedom in the game of politics, like Abraham, the prophet who sacrificed every manmade objective and subjective limiting elements of his era.
It is evident, constant monitoring and analyzing the Russian realpolitik must be a routine agenda.
In plain language, realpolitik means pursuing the ultimate goals without considering any manmade and abstractive redlines such as national pride, religion, ideology, custom, ethics or even personal arrogant and social credibility.
The Russian realpolitik has provided a significant velocity and flexibility in political planning and engineering for Moscow, though the arrogant of the Kremlin leadership has made some unnecessary obstacles for the Russian government.
In contrast, the system has also tried to boost its efficiency by crossing the line to obtain the absolute freedom in the game of politics, like Abraham, the prophet who sacrificed every manmade objective and subjective limiting elements of his era.
It is evident, constant monitoring and analyzing the Russian realpolitik must be a routine agenda.
Wednesday, April 10, 2019
Libya: Plan B
The current situation in Libya is evidently a threat to the security of Libyan people and a crisis for the world community especially over human smuggling and the energy flow.
It would not be a smart decision to give another chance to diplomacy as a failed option, in this critical moment. The world community has to be ready for sacrificing and preparing a decisive approach toward Libya. Keep this logic in mind, Libya is no like Yemen; keeping European security and balance of energy flow significantly depend on stability in Libya.
As human rights is a secondary issue for Afghanistan, 'democracy' is no more in question over Libya. The world community should support any actions, groups or even person that are able to restore stability in the country as soon as possible.
It would not be a smart decision to give another chance to diplomacy as a failed option, in this critical moment. The world community has to be ready for sacrificing and preparing a decisive approach toward Libya. Keep this logic in mind, Libya is no like Yemen; keeping European security and balance of energy flow significantly depend on stability in Libya.
As human rights is a secondary issue for Afghanistan, 'democracy' is no more in question over Libya. The world community should support any actions, groups or even person that are able to restore stability in the country as soon as possible.
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