Extraordinary situations need extraordinary behaviors.
The rule of law is one the main achievement of any civilization. Therefore, any behavior that endanger legacy of the global civilization is unacceptable.
The system has never broken the law. But in case of conflict between main priorities of the civilization such as principles, basic values and global security requirements, and secondary priority like local regulations, the system should make a hard decision in accordance with the principal of the “rule according to a higher law”. It is evident that choosing basic priorities over secondary ones is necessary, which was also implicitly permitted by the United States Declaration of Independence through the contents of the right of revolution.
The system honors its friendships and partnerships. But as every must know, 'attack' is the desired respond to a threat. And betrayal as the "preventive defense" and/or the premature "countermeasures" against an imminent treason is defensible, at least before a group of contemporary jurists.
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
Iran: A Greenhouse Revolution
The Saudi government intends to launch a military assault on Iran. But since the idea of such an attack is not in compliance with international law and may destabilize the regional order, the system disagrees with it. Nevertheless, Riyadh and the other states may provide the situation for implementing the R2P. It is evident, both domestic and international considerations should be met for application of R2P. For instance, the EU's green light and support would be among notable international factors in this regard.
A critical economic situation for many of the Middle East nations is not a sufficient motive force for starting a revolution. Gaza and the city of Sanaa in Yemen must be convincing examples in this respect; even the collapse of living standard in these areas could not make the people rebel against their corrupt political leaders.
The harsh economic conditions might be the seeds of a revolution but there is faint chance to achieve such a natural revolution in Iran. But the current economic circumstances in the country facilitate the possibility of making an armed opposition group. And this crafted rebel group would play two functions: overthrowing the regime and activating the option of R2P for the other states against Tehran.
A critical economic situation for many of the Middle East nations is not a sufficient motive force for starting a revolution. Gaza and the city of Sanaa in Yemen must be convincing examples in this respect; even the collapse of living standard in these areas could not make the people rebel against their corrupt political leaders.
The harsh economic conditions might be the seeds of a revolution but there is faint chance to achieve such a natural revolution in Iran. But the current economic circumstances in the country facilitate the possibility of making an armed opposition group. And this crafted rebel group would play two functions: overthrowing the regime and activating the option of R2P for the other states against Tehran.
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Tehran: Army's Policy
A democratic and stable state forms the society and universities on the pillar of diversity while it makes the army on the basis of uniformity, but an unstable dictatorship acts the reverse.
The army that is shaped upon money and force is a potential threat to the security. Whereas, money (for commanders) and force over soldiers are the foundation of armed forces of Iran. The forces would probably join people in case of mass uprising, and thus, a civil war begins. Keep in mind, today's Syria is the product of Free Syrian Army, the forces who left the Syrian Army.
The system must offer new identity, safe residence and money for Iranian commanders who render sensitive and classified information.
Current Iranian soldiers are tomorrow's potential insurgents. The system must provide a set of acceptable financial and non-financial benefits in order to encourage them to leave the army and join the militia, so that there is no need to non-native mercenaries.
The army that is shaped upon money and force is a potential threat to the security. Whereas, money (for commanders) and force over soldiers are the foundation of armed forces of Iran. The forces would probably join people in case of mass uprising, and thus, a civil war begins. Keep in mind, today's Syria is the product of Free Syrian Army, the forces who left the Syrian Army.
The system must offer new identity, safe residence and money for Iranian commanders who render sensitive and classified information.
Current Iranian soldiers are tomorrow's potential insurgents. The system must provide a set of acceptable financial and non-financial benefits in order to encourage them to leave the army and join the militia, so that there is no need to non-native mercenaries.
Wednesday, August 1, 2018
Iran: Anomie Program
The system believes in no faith but good faith.
Several conflicting elements are forming within Iran that warn a possible anomie just like Libya. Growing public dissatisfaction on the one hand, and on the other hand, as everyone must know, "chaos is a ladder" for Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Iran's civil war is now possible but it seems that the Revolutionary Guards is ready for that. Therefore, it is not a good time for a mass revolt. The system should disrupt their calculation and make sure that the circumstances are suitable for an uprising or even a civil war with a clear and promising future. In this regard:
First, Syria's Assad removal must be back on the agenda again.
Second, Saudi Arabia should be encouraged to declare a conditional peace with Yemen's Houthi insurgents that entails provisions against Tehran such as cutting off all ties with Iran.
Third, economic and political expense of Iran in Iraq must be boosted. It is possible by turning the country into a serious competition field between Riyadh and Tehran. Surely, both Iraqis and Saudis would welcome this situation.
Forth, the concerning ties of Saudi-Pakistan might be ended with an opportunity for Iran. Fortunately, the US enjoys of required means and advantages to fix this situation. And let alone that Pakistan army, intelligence (ISI) and Taliban forces can freely and independently take action, which might be handy.
Fifth, the system and Washington must provide proper incentive packages for Iranian people. Given the inefficacy of Cuban version of this measure, the system should work with European capitals to form comprehensive packages over migration and other humanitarian requirements, which are essential for the West to gain the upper hand and take the lead.
Sixth, a consortium consisting of the system, APIC, Israel, the US and EU should be formed over Tehran's future, instead of directing Iranian oppositions. The interests of all active and passive parties must be ensured as a priority.
Several conflicting elements are forming within Iran that warn a possible anomie just like Libya. Growing public dissatisfaction on the one hand, and on the other hand, as everyone must know, "chaos is a ladder" for Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Iran's civil war is now possible but it seems that the Revolutionary Guards is ready for that. Therefore, it is not a good time for a mass revolt. The system should disrupt their calculation and make sure that the circumstances are suitable for an uprising or even a civil war with a clear and promising future. In this regard:
First, Syria's Assad removal must be back on the agenda again.
Second, Saudi Arabia should be encouraged to declare a conditional peace with Yemen's Houthi insurgents that entails provisions against Tehran such as cutting off all ties with Iran.
Third, economic and political expense of Iran in Iraq must be boosted. It is possible by turning the country into a serious competition field between Riyadh and Tehran. Surely, both Iraqis and Saudis would welcome this situation.
Forth, the concerning ties of Saudi-Pakistan might be ended with an opportunity for Iran. Fortunately, the US enjoys of required means and advantages to fix this situation. And let alone that Pakistan army, intelligence (ISI) and Taliban forces can freely and independently take action, which might be handy.
Fifth, the system and Washington must provide proper incentive packages for Iranian people. Given the inefficacy of Cuban version of this measure, the system should work with European capitals to form comprehensive packages over migration and other humanitarian requirements, which are essential for the West to gain the upper hand and take the lead.
Sixth, a consortium consisting of the system, APIC, Israel, the US and EU should be formed over Tehran's future, instead of directing Iranian oppositions. The interests of all active and passive parties must be ensured as a priority.
Wednesday, July 4, 2018
Health and Security
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Security is certainly the most important parameter of any organism. And the very security entails the individuals' health of its set. For most ordinary citizens, the free health care is OK. But would it be enough for soldiers and agents?!
Given today's advanced weapons, the chance of traumatic injury for a typical soldier and agent is way higher than the rest of people. Therefore, providing the health insurance is not convincing, at least for the administration, since the vulnerability of the system and its members should be dramatically decreased to increase the defensive and offensive powers of the set.
At the end, the system should specially invest on the treatment of illness and disabilities and launch a long-term plan for it.
Security is certainly the most important parameter of any organism. And the very security entails the individuals' health of its set. For most ordinary citizens, the free health care is OK. But would it be enough for soldiers and agents?!
Given today's advanced weapons, the chance of traumatic injury for a typical soldier and agent is way higher than the rest of people. Therefore, providing the health insurance is not convincing, at least for the administration, since the vulnerability of the system and its members should be dramatically decreased to increase the defensive and offensive powers of the set.
At the end, the system should specially invest on the treatment of illness and disabilities and launch a long-term plan for it.
Wednesday, June 27, 2018
Israel-Palestine: R2P
A domestic issue with international side effects is a global issue.
The current situation governing Israel-Palestine cannot be found merely domestic issues of these parties. The dispute of Israeli and Palestinian states itself has been the origin of a few wars and emergence of militia and terrorist groups in the region, which are threats against all.
The continues violation of human rights and humanitarian law by third parties like Hamas and Hezbollah under the shade of the dispute is now identified a constant parameter in this regard. Therefore, the world community and the major Arab states have this right to take advantage of all means to settle peace by invoking the principle of Responsibility to Protect. It is evident, the principle would legitimate any essential decision on behalf of Palestinian nation by the world community if the Palestinian state fails to accomplish its part.
At the end, the model of multilateral negotiation among Israel, West Bank and the GCC is recommended.
The current situation governing Israel-Palestine cannot be found merely domestic issues of these parties. The dispute of Israeli and Palestinian states itself has been the origin of a few wars and emergence of militia and terrorist groups in the region, which are threats against all.
The continues violation of human rights and humanitarian law by third parties like Hamas and Hezbollah under the shade of the dispute is now identified a constant parameter in this regard. Therefore, the world community and the major Arab states have this right to take advantage of all means to settle peace by invoking the principle of Responsibility to Protect. It is evident, the principle would legitimate any essential decision on behalf of Palestinian nation by the world community if the Palestinian state fails to accomplish its part.
At the end, the model of multilateral negotiation among Israel, West Bank and the GCC is recommended.
Wednesday, June 13, 2018
Iran: "What is to be done?"
Political and social instability in a country could be considered an advantage for those who are seeking for change.
Public discontent and instability are like raw materials, which have no effects without a manipulation through a political factory. Keep in mind, the success of a colour revolution, or a coup like 2013 Egypt's General Sisi coup, both rely on the very two factors.
Today, Tehran suffers from such a disease. But this situation cannot last as an opportunity for good. The wave of public discontent will eventually turned into the feeling of frustrated that would lead to social collapse and chaos; The situations of Cuba and Venezuela, for instance.
Therefore, an accurate planning for launching a revolution or coup Iran can make the idea “regime change” possible.
Public discontent and instability are like raw materials, which have no effects without a manipulation through a political factory. Keep in mind, the success of a colour revolution, or a coup like 2013 Egypt's General Sisi coup, both rely on the very two factors.
Today, Tehran suffers from such a disease. But this situation cannot last as an opportunity for good. The wave of public discontent will eventually turned into the feeling of frustrated that would lead to social collapse and chaos; The situations of Cuba and Venezuela, for instance.
Therefore, an accurate planning for launching a revolution or coup Iran can make the idea “regime change” possible.
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