Wednesday, April 18, 2018

North Korea and Chinese Hegemony

There is no doubt that Pyongyang is dancing for Beijing; moreover, there is a significant difference between Moscow's perspective toward hegemony and the ones of Chinese government. Since there is conflict of interest between the Washington DC and Beijing in the Asia and Southeast Asia, finding the covert purpose of China in seeking peace over North Korean issue is in question. 
The main question that should be answered is: What will be the desired plan or order of China after the possible settlement of North Korean case? 
It seems that the new story or second phase will begin by economy. "Fear" or maybe "threat", are the key elements that keep the current order in the region. But after disappearing of the threat and lifting of sanctions on North Korea, the economic ties among states are the sole permanent parameter that will shape the new balance of power in the Asia. 
Penetrating the economic and cultural structures of North Korea would be more important than deactivation of its nuclear and military programs. Western corporations and South Korean entertainment market can play their parts in this regard.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Iran: The Control

There is no political "Big Bang" to define the existence of international order. 
The main objective of appearance of Iran's nuclear case and then the nuclear deal has been the key world of "control". It is evident that Iranian nuclear program has been always a pretext. Tehran is a good player that plays for a bad side, which makes it a de facto threat but it might also be considered a potential opportunity in long-term. 
A sudden and total withdrawal of the nuclear deal by the U.S. can drive everything in this regard out of control, which is against the primary goal and even the true will of the White House. It cannot be denied that the current nuclear deal could not fulfill the mentioned demand and purpose, but it can be used as the board of a game. 
Unlike a big explosion, an engineered explosion can guide the subject and take any side effects under the control. If the simple purpose are correcting and guiding the reactions of Tehran, the Washington should gradually withdraw the deal, whereas it supports the action by carrot and stick. In fact, partial withdrawal of the nuclear deal would performs as a game that should be implemented by the means of rewards and punishments in order to finally break the resistance of the counter side.