Closing Guantanamo prison was one of Barack Obama's promises in the 2008 election to the people. This means that public opinion of America have been familiar with torture and illegal behavior that was done in the prison before Obama's promise, although the biotechnology experiments against prisoners had been never revealed. Also the America's mass media revealed the Abu Ghraib prison torture to the people precisely. Therefore, the recent report of Senate did not reveal new facts of torture, but part of this report contains new topics that studying its points is necessary.
It was expected that private companies cooperate with CIA in the context of fighting against terrorism in return for get a lot of money, and receive legal immunity and intelligence license. But in fact these companies were using the opportunity to commit organized crimes against government. They easily accessed to classified information and sold them to different countries including Arab states. As well as killed significant number of honest agents of United States intelligence community.
But the publication of this part of the report means that the U.S. and Europe atmosphere is going to be safe. CIA's relationship with these companies has been discontinued and stopped. And illegal activities of these companies are limited.
Monday, December 29, 2014
Sunday, December 28, 2014
An Introduction to Elections
Increasing public opinion knowledge has led to the evolution of democracy. In recent years the results of elections in the global setting indicates that the current parameters influencing election are different from old elements affecting this process. In this article, we tried to attend to the candidate's reputation, election atmosphere and media positions in the electoral arena. There is no doubt that the lack of recognition of these elements results in incorrect predictions of future elections results.
The position of candidate's reputation in elections
There are many examples that show that reputation doesn't play a decisive role in the world current elections. For instant, in the recent presidential election in Iran, an unknown politician was elected as President. While competitors of Hassan Rouhani, were of the best-known and most influential Iranian politician. Also we can note to the recent parliamentary election in Ukraine; Yulia Tymoshenko's party unlike most predictions failed to achieve success in the elections. Neither Orange Revolution and nor serving a prison terms brought her success. Finally, in the last presidential election in Romania; even the Romanian unacceptable economy situation did not cause people to elect socialists. All of these indicate that people are looking for people who can trust them. In other words, we can conclude that the behavior of people in the electoral arena is not traditional but it is realistic.
The position of atmosphere in elections
That feeling governing the psychological and spiritual atmosphere of the entire election called "election atmosphere". Elections atmosphere may be emotional or intellectual and may also be peaceful or violent. Events, media, opposition and even the traditions of a society have an important role in shaping the election atmosphere. The candidate or parties who coordinate its electoral discourse to election atmosphere have greater chances of winning than its competitors. In recent Congressional elections in the United States the right-wing tried to impose the two elements of emotions and aggression on the elections atmosphere. In elections, who can choice the elections atmosphere is like a soccer team that have choice between the field and ball. However, it does not matter who sets the atmosphere, but it is important who could handle it better than others. In recent elections, Congressional, the left-wing did not interact with the election's atmosphere and continuous efforts to rationally defend its peaceful positions. Election atmosphere represents the people's demands. The successful candidate is the one who can meet people request. It should be noted that people demand may be in conflict with their real needs. For example, peace is people real need. But, people based on emotionally, and national and etc. reasons may want war. However, choosing the peace or war option only is correct that be according to political interest. So, in the case of conflict between people demand and political interest, it is unreasonable that political interests be sacrificed. In such circumstances, alternatives could be used. For example, if people want peace with all of world, including Russia, promulgation of peace with Cuba can be a good alternative. And if people want a total and ground war in Iraq, a limited war can be partly overcome the people's demand.
The position of Media in elections
Media's role in the regulation of public opinion strongly reduced compared to the past. Analysts and intellectuals wrote a lot of books and articles about mind control by the media. But there is much evidence that shows the current media has no crucial role in the control of public opinion. For example, despite the fact that most of American media as well as American politicians said that democracy in the United States is the world's best model of democracy but very few people take part in the election of America. About two-thirds of eligible voters did not participate in Congress last election. The vote of two thirds of people was "silence".
Most of media and politicians were silence about social discrimination against blacks. But do this neglect led to people silence?!
As a result, people will believe what they feel, not what the media constantly repeat.
The position of candidate's reputation in elections
There are many examples that show that reputation doesn't play a decisive role in the world current elections. For instant, in the recent presidential election in Iran, an unknown politician was elected as President. While competitors of Hassan Rouhani, were of the best-known and most influential Iranian politician. Also we can note to the recent parliamentary election in Ukraine; Yulia Tymoshenko's party unlike most predictions failed to achieve success in the elections. Neither Orange Revolution and nor serving a prison terms brought her success. Finally, in the last presidential election in Romania; even the Romanian unacceptable economy situation did not cause people to elect socialists. All of these indicate that people are looking for people who can trust them. In other words, we can conclude that the behavior of people in the electoral arena is not traditional but it is realistic.
The position of atmosphere in elections
That feeling governing the psychological and spiritual atmosphere of the entire election called "election atmosphere". Elections atmosphere may be emotional or intellectual and may also be peaceful or violent. Events, media, opposition and even the traditions of a society have an important role in shaping the election atmosphere. The candidate or parties who coordinate its electoral discourse to election atmosphere have greater chances of winning than its competitors. In recent Congressional elections in the United States the right-wing tried to impose the two elements of emotions and aggression on the elections atmosphere. In elections, who can choice the elections atmosphere is like a soccer team that have choice between the field and ball. However, it does not matter who sets the atmosphere, but it is important who could handle it better than others. In recent elections, Congressional, the left-wing did not interact with the election's atmosphere and continuous efforts to rationally defend its peaceful positions. Election atmosphere represents the people's demands. The successful candidate is the one who can meet people request. It should be noted that people demand may be in conflict with their real needs. For example, peace is people real need. But, people based on emotionally, and national and etc. reasons may want war. However, choosing the peace or war option only is correct that be according to political interest. So, in the case of conflict between people demand and political interest, it is unreasonable that political interests be sacrificed. In such circumstances, alternatives could be used. For example, if people want peace with all of world, including Russia, promulgation of peace with Cuba can be a good alternative. And if people want a total and ground war in Iraq, a limited war can be partly overcome the people's demand.
The position of Media in elections
Media's role in the regulation of public opinion strongly reduced compared to the past. Analysts and intellectuals wrote a lot of books and articles about mind control by the media. But there is much evidence that shows the current media has no crucial role in the control of public opinion. For example, despite the fact that most of American media as well as American politicians said that democracy in the United States is the world's best model of democracy but very few people take part in the election of America. About two-thirds of eligible voters did not participate in Congress last election. The vote of two thirds of people was "silence".
Most of media and politicians were silence about social discrimination against blacks. But do this neglect led to people silence?!
As a result, people will believe what they feel, not what the media constantly repeat.
Monday, December 22, 2014
About Novorossiya
Oleg Tsaryov, the self-proclaimed speaker of "Novorossiya's" Parliament has been recently announced in an interview with Le Figaro newspaper that the separatists give up their demand based on the achievement of political independency. And they called for federal government in Ukraine with the full autonomy for the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, instead.
Therefore, some points about the political and legal status of Ukraine should be said necessarily.
Representatives of the separatists legally accepted in the Minsk Protocol that they do not have the required legal capacity for political independency to be claimed. Therefore, following the agreement the Russia's position changed about east of Ukraine.
What was the last comment of Putin before this agreement?
He supported of creating an independence country and the idea of eastern Ukraine political independency.
But the achievement way of political independency was blocked after the Minsk Protocol. And since the Moscow was aware of the fact, then has changed its political tactic. The idea of federalism in Ukraine is supported by Kremlin for months, instead of the eastern Ukrainian independency.
What is the goal of Kremlin of creating federal government in Ukraine and full autonomy of the areas controlled by separatists?
The autonomy similar to that of Scotland and California (despite the fact that mentioned states have not full autonomy) enables the separatists that achieve full political independency through a legal referendum.
Needless to say, the right to self-determination is of the basic elements of full autonomy.
Therefore, some points about the political and legal status of Ukraine should be said necessarily.
Representatives of the separatists legally accepted in the Minsk Protocol that they do not have the required legal capacity for political independency to be claimed. Therefore, following the agreement the Russia's position changed about east of Ukraine.
What was the last comment of Putin before this agreement?
He supported of creating an independence country and the idea of eastern Ukraine political independency.
But the achievement way of political independency was blocked after the Minsk Protocol. And since the Moscow was aware of the fact, then has changed its political tactic. The idea of federalism in Ukraine is supported by Kremlin for months, instead of the eastern Ukrainian independency.
What is the goal of Kremlin of creating federal government in Ukraine and full autonomy of the areas controlled by separatists?
The autonomy similar to that of Scotland and California (despite the fact that mentioned states have not full autonomy) enables the separatists that achieve full political independency through a legal referendum.
Needless to say, the right to self-determination is of the basic elements of full autonomy.
Monday, December 15, 2014
Israel on Dilemma
Extremism is a political disease that does not need any reason but excuse. Germany sample confirms this claim.
German society supported political innovations of moderate politicians like Willy Brandt during the Cold War. This political behavior of Germans is certainly well demonstrated the fact that Treaty of Versailles could not be identified as the cause and reason of extremism in Nazi Germany but the extremist strategy of political leaders started the extremism as the Berlin Wall never could create the radicalism in the country.
It is clear that America’s political credibility is one of its political interests. And this political interest is damaged and suffers through Washington's support of the government that violates international law and rules. Washington policy coordination with realities and current order of the world ensures the interests of the US government. Parameters that are set the current world order are as follows: the new Middle East, Russian threats and new generation of terrorism which is used as a channel for mob crimes such as causing outbreak of a syntactic virus.
It is necessary for Israel leaders to ask themselves why the Democratic Party is going to utilize and take advantages from Irij’s helps (53-year-old Indian lady who has considerable influence on the US Senate) in presidential elections of 2016.
Why the process of key changes has been started in Unites States’ moral sphere?!
All these while, the positions of West have been constant. For example, the France gradually banned weapon sale to Israel after the Six-Day War of 1967. And also some of European countries established weapon sale bans to Israel in the spring of 2002, undeclared.
German society supported political innovations of moderate politicians like Willy Brandt during the Cold War. This political behavior of Germans is certainly well demonstrated the fact that Treaty of Versailles could not be identified as the cause and reason of extremism in Nazi Germany but the extremist strategy of political leaders started the extremism as the Berlin Wall never could create the radicalism in the country.
It is clear that America’s political credibility is one of its political interests. And this political interest is damaged and suffers through Washington's support of the government that violates international law and rules. Washington policy coordination with realities and current order of the world ensures the interests of the US government. Parameters that are set the current world order are as follows: the new Middle East, Russian threats and new generation of terrorism which is used as a channel for mob crimes such as causing outbreak of a syntactic virus.
It is necessary for Israel leaders to ask themselves why the Democratic Party is going to utilize and take advantages from Irij’s helps (53-year-old Indian lady who has considerable influence on the US Senate) in presidential elections of 2016.
Why the process of key changes has been started in Unites States’ moral sphere?!
All these while, the positions of West have been constant. For example, the France gradually banned weapon sale to Israel after the Six-Day War of 1967. And also some of European countries established weapon sale bans to Israel in the spring of 2002, undeclared.
Tuesday, December 9, 2014
ISIS and the U.S. Strategies
ISIS has been the most powerful terrorist group in recent decades according to the claim of many prominent political and military analysts. In spite of the fact, both rise and fall of the real power of ISIS have occurred in less than a year. Restraining the uncontrollable power of the terrorist group was the aim that fully realized during a few months after the emergence of its self-government.
But, what would be the results if the desired strategy of right-wing was adopted?
The result must be the same as wars of Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq and Afghanistan wars with the aim of fighting against terrorism were lasted for years and damaged seriously the Unites States' economic and political body. It should be added that ISIS is more powerful than Taliban and Al-Qaeda, thus the beginning of a ground war against it might bring about more grave consequences to the U.S. than two previous wars against terrorism.
While none of the Western politicians admitted the east Ukraine's rebellions could prepare heavy weapons lonely, we should not similarly affirm that ISIS' huge financial resources or the knowledge of this terrorists group on modern tactics and strategies of warfare are achieved without any help.
In the end, ISIS was also pawn of the chess such as Ukraine's pro-Russians; the winner is the one who checkmates the "king".
But, what would be the results if the desired strategy of right-wing was adopted?
The result must be the same as wars of Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq and Afghanistan wars with the aim of fighting against terrorism were lasted for years and damaged seriously the Unites States' economic and political body. It should be added that ISIS is more powerful than Taliban and Al-Qaeda, thus the beginning of a ground war against it might bring about more grave consequences to the U.S. than two previous wars against terrorism.
While none of the Western politicians admitted the east Ukraine's rebellions could prepare heavy weapons lonely, we should not similarly affirm that ISIS' huge financial resources or the knowledge of this terrorists group on modern tactics and strategies of warfare are achieved without any help.
In the end, ISIS was also pawn of the chess such as Ukraine's pro-Russians; the winner is the one who checkmates the "king".
Saturday, December 6, 2014
Two brothers: A report
Two Iraqi children were kidnapped in Baghdad about three months ago. These two brothers with the ages of 7 and 15 years have lost their entire family members including father, mother and two sisters in a bombing last year. From then onwards they were living alone with each other and with no umbrella of any institute or legal guardians until a few months ago they were kidnapped by a terrorist-mob group and transferred to Turkey. Now they are captures somewhere in Istanbul.
The group committed this criminal action is required to bring them to a legal entity in an Arabic country by the end of December 2014 without harassing them or even leave them alone.
Definitely an Arabic country would be better for both parties; for these children whose mother tongue is Arabic and for kidnappers whose identity is not registered in that country.
Otherwise, and if any action or omission is committed and realized unlike the demand, the group should be expected for the consequences of its crimes.
And in respect of this group and its express request, we emphasis, no agreement is valid in order to lower the dollar's value to create a social unrest and riot.
The group committed this criminal action is required to bring them to a legal entity in an Arabic country by the end of December 2014 without harassing them or even leave them alone.
Definitely an Arabic country would be better for both parties; for these children whose mother tongue is Arabic and for kidnappers whose identity is not registered in that country.
Otherwise, and if any action or omission is committed and realized unlike the demand, the group should be expected for the consequences of its crimes.
And in respect of this group and its express request, we emphasis, no agreement is valid in order to lower the dollar's value to create a social unrest and riot.
Monday, December 1, 2014
Egypt: Counterrevolution
The recent political events of Egypt require engaging to a comparative study of "confiscation revolution".
The guillotine was used instead of the liberal thought of "Rousseau" in French Revolution and a new season of dictatorship began. Iranian Revolution was also confiscated by IRP over a four-year process that was begun from the beginning of new regime.
It should be said in explanation of Iranian Revolution that it was not unreasonable that Michel Foucault was attached and interested to the revolution (in the early of the incident) and wrote articles about it. New Iranian regime allowed people to select their Constitutional Convention's members. That's why representatives of various parties, including Marxists, liberalists, nationalists and even separatists (refer to Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou) participated in the convention and they have designed Iran's constitution with together. Therefore, the presence of new intellectual topics such as "Reification" in the introduction of the constitution is not amazing.
Egypt Revolution was confiscated by generals after/through the fall of Mohamed Morsi and completely cleaning of Muslim Brotherhood party. However, there is a fundamental difference between the recent case and the rest.
Drop of criminal charges from Hosni Mubarak has led to unveil the scheme of revolution confiscation that should be done covertly. As a result, now, Egyptian people know the "January 25" revolution have been confiscated.
The incident will lead to create a strong and active opposition in Egypt. And the more detailed word is that, after the fall of Morsi, only the political Islam supporters became the Egyptian opposition, but through clearing Mubarak charges, all of the revolution supporters have become opposition of Egypt.
The guillotine was used instead of the liberal thought of "Rousseau" in French Revolution and a new season of dictatorship began. Iranian Revolution was also confiscated by IRP over a four-year process that was begun from the beginning of new regime.
It should be said in explanation of Iranian Revolution that it was not unreasonable that Michel Foucault was attached and interested to the revolution (in the early of the incident) and wrote articles about it. New Iranian regime allowed people to select their Constitutional Convention's members. That's why representatives of various parties, including Marxists, liberalists, nationalists and even separatists (refer to Abdul Rahman Ghassemlou) participated in the convention and they have designed Iran's constitution with together. Therefore, the presence of new intellectual topics such as "Reification" in the introduction of the constitution is not amazing.
Egypt Revolution was confiscated by generals after/through the fall of Mohamed Morsi and completely cleaning of Muslim Brotherhood party. However, there is a fundamental difference between the recent case and the rest.
Drop of criminal charges from Hosni Mubarak has led to unveil the scheme of revolution confiscation that should be done covertly. As a result, now, Egyptian people know the "January 25" revolution have been confiscated.
The incident will lead to create a strong and active opposition in Egypt. And the more detailed word is that, after the fall of Morsi, only the political Islam supporters became the Egyptian opposition, but through clearing Mubarak charges, all of the revolution supporters have become opposition of Egypt.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
The PSYWAR of ISIS and the Western Media
The murdering of Peter Kassing, the American hostage by ISIS and releasing the video of this criminal act, proposes the question whether do not compensating instead of saving Kassing's life is acceptable or not.
Given that a few months ago, five Taliban prisoners from Guantanamo were freed by the U.S. government instead of the freedom of an American hostage who was soldier, it must be admitted that the White House allows similar dealings.
The following question is under consideration according to what was said: Is the White House decision about the issue of hostages who are arrested by ISIS acceptable or not?
Currently, the psychological warfare is ISIS' powerful weapon. Nothing more than releasing the video of the execution of a western innocent citizen can cause ISIS to be the winner of psychological warfare against the West (in public opinion). However, dealing with ISIS about the hostages could damage this destructive weapon of the terrorist group.
It should be also noted that the mass media keep almost silent about Iraqi army widespread victories in battle against ISIS, or the media broadcast false news "audio file of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi" instead of publishing the real news about his too much injuries (which will probably lead to his death). This indicates that the media are not included as a western lever in PSYWAR against ISIS.
Given that a few months ago, five Taliban prisoners from Guantanamo were freed by the U.S. government instead of the freedom of an American hostage who was soldier, it must be admitted that the White House allows similar dealings.
The following question is under consideration according to what was said: Is the White House decision about the issue of hostages who are arrested by ISIS acceptable or not?
Currently, the psychological warfare is ISIS' powerful weapon. Nothing more than releasing the video of the execution of a western innocent citizen can cause ISIS to be the winner of psychological warfare against the West (in public opinion). However, dealing with ISIS about the hostages could damage this destructive weapon of the terrorist group.
It should be also noted that the mass media keep almost silent about Iraqi army widespread victories in battle against ISIS, or the media broadcast false news "audio file of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi" instead of publishing the real news about his too much injuries (which will probably lead to his death). This indicates that the media are not included as a western lever in PSYWAR against ISIS.
Friday, November 21, 2014
Petroleum Power and Foreign Policy
The democracy of 1998 has led one of the alliances of United States to become Washington's enemy.Venezuela, the friend of United States in the Cold War, had been gradually separated from Washington after the democratic elections in 1998 and joined Cuba. Thus, the most significant power of petroleum in Latin America has joined the Russian campaign, which could play a core and constructive role in creating balance of power.
Washington must ask itself why the Venezuela democratic elections has led the Caracas to become the enemy of the U.S., while the recent presidential election in Iran moves Tehran to get closer ties with the U.S. and EU.
Venezuela and Iran's foreign policy doctrines have not changed as a result of a coup, but was changed by democratic elections. So it must be admitted that the extremist policies of the conservatives caused the United State to lose one of its most important friends in Latin America, while the realistic policies of the White House in recent years has caused the Iranian to vote and elect Hassan Rouhani, the moderate politician, as a result of a democratic election.
Rouhani was the most unknown politician among the Iran's recent presidential election candidates. From the view point of Iranian prominent analysts, he had no real chance of winning the election. Therefore, by choosing him the Iranian not actually vote and elect a person, but a new pattern in Iranian politics.
Washington must ask itself why the Venezuela democratic elections has led the Caracas to become the enemy of the U.S., while the recent presidential election in Iran moves Tehran to get closer ties with the U.S. and EU.
Venezuela and Iran's foreign policy doctrines have not changed as a result of a coup, but was changed by democratic elections. So it must be admitted that the extremist policies of the conservatives caused the United State to lose one of its most important friends in Latin America, while the realistic policies of the White House in recent years has caused the Iranian to vote and elect Hassan Rouhani, the moderate politician, as a result of a democratic election.
Rouhani was the most unknown politician among the Iran's recent presidential election candidates. From the view point of Iranian prominent analysts, he had no real chance of winning the election. Therefore, by choosing him the Iranian not actually vote and elect a person, but a new pattern in Iranian politics.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
The "Sky" of Al-Quds
Traditionalism is the main reason of the collapse of the negotiations and resolves the differences.
Israeli leaders have been placed on the agenda a project entitled "Sky". The mass return of the Jews to the Jerusalem (particularly to the eastern part) in order to create a Jewish appearance of "Al-Quds" (which is a symbolic city of Palestinian people) is the goal that this plan seeks for its achievement. It is necessary to say, the secret project is not new but it was locked.
This project is opposed to peace, therefore, is not authorized and allowed. And any attempt by Israeli leaders to realize this project will be faced with appropriate responses.
Although the new generation of Israeli politicians and the new wave of Israeli political thought have understood the differences between the real and the imaginary power, but it is impossible to resolve the tensions as long as this fact is not understood by others.
Israeli leaders have been placed on the agenda a project entitled "Sky". The mass return of the Jews to the Jerusalem (particularly to the eastern part) in order to create a Jewish appearance of "Al-Quds" (which is a symbolic city of Palestinian people) is the goal that this plan seeks for its achievement. It is necessary to say, the secret project is not new but it was locked.
This project is opposed to peace, therefore, is not authorized and allowed. And any attempt by Israeli leaders to realize this project will be faced with appropriate responses.
Although the new generation of Israeli politicians and the new wave of Israeli political thought have understood the differences between the real and the imaginary power, but it is impossible to resolve the tensions as long as this fact is not understood by others.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
Minsk Protocol: Russian "Reversal of Matter"
It is necessary to verify the West strategy on Ukraine crisis because the political and legal status of Donetsk and Lugansk regions has been changed since signing the Minsk Protocol. So:
First, Russia is trying to legitimate the total control of separatists over the East Ukraine through "reversal of matter" (as a tactic).
What is (still) the main matter of Ukraine crisis?
Land and territory, not only a ceasefire or peace.
What is the main problem of Ukraine crisis according to standpoint of Moscow?
Unconditional ceasefire. (It should be noted that such a ceasefire will give Moscow this opportunity to create its third victory in East Ukraine after South Ossetia and Crimea; of course a total war is a best situation to promote the idea of ceasefire in order to divert public opinion and media from the main subject to the ceasefire.)
Therefore, Ukraine needs to know Russia and the separatists want Minsk Protocol to be abolished by Kiev more than anything else. Because the agreement imposed a legal regime based on the law of treaties on the Donetsk and Lugansk areas. Under the agreement, Donetsk and Lugansk are identified as local (self) governments. This legal description determines the areas (legal) capacity and definitely the capacity do not allow Donetsk and Lugansk regions to have independence. So, the total control of separatists over the areas is invalid. Indeed, DPR and LPR representatives as well as Russian Federation representative have recognized the mentioned capacity (not more than that) to Donetsk and Lugansk and the signatory parties are bound to the agreement.
So it is better to consider use of military force by Kiev against the militants as an effort of the country to force the separatists to implement the agreement or even known as Ukrainian armed defense from the Minsk Protocol. Thus, on the one hand armed action of government (based on a limited war) should not be considered an abolition and repeal of the protocol, but on the other hand the Kiev should not enter to a total war.
Second, China is not in favor of Putin's regime debacle and fall, therefore China certainly will push to Moscow to end this crisis if it ensures that Ukraine crisis could cause the Putin's regime to be fallen.
First, Russia is trying to legitimate the total control of separatists over the East Ukraine through "reversal of matter" (as a tactic).
What is (still) the main matter of Ukraine crisis?
Land and territory, not only a ceasefire or peace.
What is the main problem of Ukraine crisis according to standpoint of Moscow?
Unconditional ceasefire. (It should be noted that such a ceasefire will give Moscow this opportunity to create its third victory in East Ukraine after South Ossetia and Crimea; of course a total war is a best situation to promote the idea of ceasefire in order to divert public opinion and media from the main subject to the ceasefire.)
Therefore, Ukraine needs to know Russia and the separatists want Minsk Protocol to be abolished by Kiev more than anything else. Because the agreement imposed a legal regime based on the law of treaties on the Donetsk and Lugansk areas. Under the agreement, Donetsk and Lugansk are identified as local (self) governments. This legal description determines the areas (legal) capacity and definitely the capacity do not allow Donetsk and Lugansk regions to have independence. So, the total control of separatists over the areas is invalid. Indeed, DPR and LPR representatives as well as Russian Federation representative have recognized the mentioned capacity (not more than that) to Donetsk and Lugansk and the signatory parties are bound to the agreement.
So it is better to consider use of military force by Kiev against the militants as an effort of the country to force the separatists to implement the agreement or even known as Ukrainian armed defense from the Minsk Protocol. Thus, on the one hand armed action of government (based on a limited war) should not be considered an abolition and repeal of the protocol, but on the other hand the Kiev should not enter to a total war.
Second, China is not in favor of Putin's regime debacle and fall, therefore China certainly will push to Moscow to end this crisis if it ensures that Ukraine crisis could cause the Putin's regime to be fallen.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
US-China: Distribution of Power
The proper distribution of power is the supreme goal that the balance of power seeks. This means that the power is distributed so that there is no country or groups of superpower. Sometimes groups or nations are united with each other and form a coalition against the group or the country that has lots of power in order to accomplish the goal.
Why World War II was happened?
Because the Germans have broken the Europe balance of power while other European countries have not been united with each other before the war began. In other words, they didn't fix the distribution of power by a balance of power before the war.
Why World War III did not happen?
Because many western countries of the world have formed a military alliance against Soviet, called NATO; NATO which is consists of Western powers, could establish the balance of power. This promoted a group has the same power of Soviet, and the chance of Soviet has sharply and greatly reduced if the World War III possibly happens. Naturally, the Soviet had no tendency and willing to start World War III in such a circumstance.
Now it should be asked, what had happened to the political points that were given by Nixon to China?
Is the United States known as the winner of the Vietnam War or China become a superpower in Asia?!
Uncontrollable political and economic powers are free from the balance of power circle only if they are reliable (like United States). This is a principle of security.
How much can be trusted on Beijing?
Why World War II was happened?
Because the Germans have broken the Europe balance of power while other European countries have not been united with each other before the war began. In other words, they didn't fix the distribution of power by a balance of power before the war.
Why World War III did not happen?
Because many western countries of the world have formed a military alliance against Soviet, called NATO; NATO which is consists of Western powers, could establish the balance of power. This promoted a group has the same power of Soviet, and the chance of Soviet has sharply and greatly reduced if the World War III possibly happens. Naturally, the Soviet had no tendency and willing to start World War III in such a circumstance.
Now it should be asked, what had happened to the political points that were given by Nixon to China?
Is the United States known as the winner of the Vietnam War or China become a superpower in Asia?!
Uncontrollable political and economic powers are free from the balance of power circle only if they are reliable (like United States). This is a principle of security.
How much can be trusted on Beijing?
Friday, November 14, 2014
Los Angles: The report of a mass grave
Maximilien Robespierr said: "Place Terror on the order of the day!"
American mafias and some great companies and corporations are trying to realize their goals through violent crimes.
But no parallel power is acceptable. And certainly no partner is needed.
Entertainment industry is known and identified as a place for organized crimes. Crimes are possible through this channel such as murder, drug trafficking, human trafficking, sale and exchange of classified information and etc. The need to limit the industry is inevitable and the pattern of "entertainment market" will be superseded the entertainment industry.
The house number 12:
Probably some may know the house near Pacific Ocean in Los Angles; this elegant house has not bathroom (and why didn't anyone ask for its reason?) and no one live in there, but "Hollywood Party" is held there some nights. The bodies of some/about 70 victims were buried in the yard of the house that had been murdered by the same way. At least two of the bodies of victims' investigation have shown that they were killed by syringe injection into their lips.
In addition, +some of the corpses were buried in the morning.
Needless to say, videos and photos are taken from the house and the crimes.
Finally, clean up the mess can only be removed by cleaning the perpetrators.
American mafias and some great companies and corporations are trying to realize their goals through violent crimes.
But no parallel power is acceptable. And certainly no partner is needed.
Entertainment industry is known and identified as a place for organized crimes. Crimes are possible through this channel such as murder, drug trafficking, human trafficking, sale and exchange of classified information and etc. The need to limit the industry is inevitable and the pattern of "entertainment market" will be superseded the entertainment industry.
The house number 12:
Probably some may know the house near Pacific Ocean in Los Angles; this elegant house has not bathroom (and why didn't anyone ask for its reason?) and no one live in there, but "Hollywood Party" is held there some nights. The bodies of some/about 70 victims were buried in the yard of the house that had been murdered by the same way. At least two of the bodies of victims' investigation have shown that they were killed by syringe injection into their lips.
In addition, +some of the corpses were buried in the morning.
Needless to say, videos and photos are taken from the house and the crimes.
Finally, clean up the mess can only be removed by cleaning the perpetrators.
Sunday, November 9, 2014
Political Islam and the Middle East's Revolutions
Since the 1979 Iranian revolution and hostage crisis, political Islam from the point of view of many Western powers is known with the label "threat". After the events of September 11 global struggle began against political Islam camp. Thus, political Islam in the twenty-first century replaced with communism in the Cold War.
But the beginning of presidency of Barack Obama and his efforts to realize the motto of "change”, the necessity of change the power's balance in the Middle East and Moscow's warning strategy in South Ossetia War that indicated a resurgence of Russian threats, all caused the United States strategy to be revised toward political Islam. The result of the revision was revealed in the "Arab Spring".
It was clear that the Arabic revolutions in many countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and etc. have accompanied by Islamic thoughts and charter. Thus, it was predictable that political Islam emerged as a result of the "Arab Spring" and escalated across the Middle East.
United States position regarding political Islam became apparent when it did nothing to halt the series of revolutions. While, during the Cold War, Washington cooperating with the CIA tried to break the dominoes of left-wing politics and communism in Latin America. Coups in Guatemala, Brazil and Chile are examples of these efforts.
Apart from Bahrain, why, despite the concerns of Tel Aviv and Riyadh, nothing actual and practical happened to stop these revolutions?!
But the beginning of presidency of Barack Obama and his efforts to realize the motto of "change”, the necessity of change the power's balance in the Middle East and Moscow's warning strategy in South Ossetia War that indicated a resurgence of Russian threats, all caused the United States strategy to be revised toward political Islam. The result of the revision was revealed in the "Arab Spring".
It was clear that the Arabic revolutions in many countries such as Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen and etc. have accompanied by Islamic thoughts and charter. Thus, it was predictable that political Islam emerged as a result of the "Arab Spring" and escalated across the Middle East.
United States position regarding political Islam became apparent when it did nothing to halt the series of revolutions. While, during the Cold War, Washington cooperating with the CIA tried to break the dominoes of left-wing politics and communism in Latin America. Coups in Guatemala, Brazil and Chile are examples of these efforts.
Apart from Bahrain, why, despite the concerns of Tel Aviv and Riyadh, nothing actual and practical happened to stop these revolutions?!
Tuesday, November 4, 2014
Republicans: Classified Files
During the different eras there are many Politicians who have begun to engage in criminal activities to realize their personal and private aspirations. Although these words are about criminal and clandestine activities of Republicans, but this does not mean that the class defends Democrat's party, this class is certainly free of any political orientation. For example we can indicate to disclosure of the White House Democrat politician case who sold the classified information of White House to Bashar al-Assad and Russian media; the disclosure which was done by the class.
In recent year a large number of Republicans have done many criminal activities in order to weaken the current president position and to isolate and seclude the Democrat camp.
Romney, the well-known Republican Politician has talked with Bashar al-Assad's team and promised them. Some of the Republicans were participated in "ISIS" project and other Republicans attempted to create immigration and refugee crisis in the United States collaborating with some of America's largest corporations.
It should be said that the classified documents listed above will be on the agenda from today onwards. These documents will not be archived but will be used as a lever of pressure on the conservatism center. Therefore, following the right-wing of the "secure order" means to support their political credibility and survival.
The class perspective to its surrounding is not similar to mass media's perspective. From the view point of the class, the fifty years old known American actor is recognized as an agent who had successfully performed several execution operations (or physical cleanings); but now and after his spouse disgrace, is not considered a "trustworthy number".
In recent year a large number of Republicans have done many criminal activities in order to weaken the current president position and to isolate and seclude the Democrat camp.
Romney, the well-known Republican Politician has talked with Bashar al-Assad's team and promised them. Some of the Republicans were participated in "ISIS" project and other Republicans attempted to create immigration and refugee crisis in the United States collaborating with some of America's largest corporations.
It should be said that the classified documents listed above will be on the agenda from today onwards. These documents will not be archived but will be used as a lever of pressure on the conservatism center. Therefore, following the right-wing of the "secure order" means to support their political credibility and survival.
The class perspective to its surrounding is not similar to mass media's perspective. From the view point of the class, the fifty years old known American actor is recognized as an agent who had successfully performed several execution operations (or physical cleanings); but now and after his spouse disgrace, is not considered a "trustworthy number".
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Tehran Visit Notes
Tehran, the city that has presented an unpredictable life to its citizens which its social construction has impelled people to have a surreal life, is the place for appearing new Middle East.
One of the most important topics in Iran is the file of 2009 presidential election, the file which is necessary to be reconsidered on the base of new available facts. In the election unlike the statements and claims of opponents to its result, there was not any main fraud. Putting the scenario "wide spread fraud in election" believable in the public opinion is not an amazing thing. Certainly, putting this scenario in the public opinion had followed the same scheme that choosing a 40 years old actress as the most beautiful woman in the year had followed it!
The theory of Iranian "Green" movement had been written as the same "Hundred Flowers" movement of China, filtering prominent reformist politicians and imposing isolation to moderate factions. But the "Green" movement theory was certainly more complex than "Hundred Flowers" movement and already can be known as the most evolved version of the inverse engineering.
Since, some groups support radicalisms and extremism in Middle East, it is necessary to support the powers following the moderate attitudes in order to achieving desired Middle East.
In the end, "R" is introduced as representative of the class related to Israel. "Conversation and not interposition" would be the basic principle of this channel.
One of the most important topics in Iran is the file of 2009 presidential election, the file which is necessary to be reconsidered on the base of new available facts. In the election unlike the statements and claims of opponents to its result, there was not any main fraud. Putting the scenario "wide spread fraud in election" believable in the public opinion is not an amazing thing. Certainly, putting this scenario in the public opinion had followed the same scheme that choosing a 40 years old actress as the most beautiful woman in the year had followed it!
The theory of Iranian "Green" movement had been written as the same "Hundred Flowers" movement of China, filtering prominent reformist politicians and imposing isolation to moderate factions. But the "Green" movement theory was certainly more complex than "Hundred Flowers" movement and already can be known as the most evolved version of the inverse engineering.
Since, some groups support radicalisms and extremism in Middle East, it is necessary to support the powers following the moderate attitudes in order to achieving desired Middle East.
In the end, "R" is introduced as representative of the class related to Israel. "Conversation and not interposition" would be the basic principle of this channel.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
The Private Intelligence Service: A report
A new organization has recently emerged that has identified itself with the attributes of: "autonomous and out of the system". This organization set the "research" as its goal. Needless to say, access to the classified information is equal to the term "research".
Obviously, the mentioned organization is derived from giant American companies and corporations class and follows the same old and known targets in a new structure and form.
Access to classified information and selling them to different countries and groups is one of the organization's most predictable threats to the system. So even if we assume that the organization will never be developed, it is still considered as the "snake in the grass".
It is necessary to investigate complete information about the mentioned organization as soon as possible in order to establish the "secure order". Unlocking the paragraph titled "violation" is also permitted and allowed against all the members and those who are known as element of "threat". Meanwhile the repeal of enjoy the insurance option is essential for all of those who could not prove their good faith. And taking the most important (/expensive) "tourisms" by more accurate numbers of the class is useful in order to ensure more.
But, according to the current custom, a deadline is given to the organization to end its illegal activities.
Obviously, the mentioned organization is derived from giant American companies and corporations class and follows the same old and known targets in a new structure and form.
Access to classified information and selling them to different countries and groups is one of the organization's most predictable threats to the system. So even if we assume that the organization will never be developed, it is still considered as the "snake in the grass".
It is necessary to investigate complete information about the mentioned organization as soon as possible in order to establish the "secure order". Unlocking the paragraph titled "violation" is also permitted and allowed against all the members and those who are known as element of "threat". Meanwhile the repeal of enjoy the insurance option is essential for all of those who could not prove their good faith. And taking the most important (/expensive) "tourisms" by more accurate numbers of the class is useful in order to ensure more.
But, according to the current custom, a deadline is given to the organization to end its illegal activities.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Iran: The Green Light to the Change
According to one of recently received report, Iran has purchased and imported a large amount of too expensive pesticides from China and Russia. These are supposed to be used for agricultural purposes but as they are extremely dangerous and too destructive for the environment, it is possible for Iran to have some purposes and intents other than agricultural ones in its mind for these materials.
Since a significant portion of effective power in Iran is still in hands of untrustable parties, it is necessary to change power balance in Iran in order to be able to settle a desirable and acceptable balance of power throughout the world.
New model of Iranian petroleum industry which has been registered by the Iranian ministry of petroleum will create an opportunity to make such a change. This model has three important features as follows:
First, to allow foreign investors to invest widely on Iranian upstream petroleum industry.
Second, long span of new contracts (15 to 20 years).
Third, to match amount of payments with the amount of profit that investors will receive.
Since Iran's economy is dependent on its petroleum industry, it can be showed that to take control of Iranian petroleum industry could be interpreted as to dominate over economy leverage of this country. From this point on, it will not be a difficult task to settle the desired balance of power in Iran.
Considering the fact that Iran has chosen London and not a city in Russia or China (or any other eastern country) to introduce this new model, it must be admitted that this tactical policy can be accounted as a green light from Tehran to the “change”.
Since a significant portion of effective power in Iran is still in hands of untrustable parties, it is necessary to change power balance in Iran in order to be able to settle a desirable and acceptable balance of power throughout the world.
New model of Iranian petroleum industry which has been registered by the Iranian ministry of petroleum will create an opportunity to make such a change. This model has three important features as follows:
First, to allow foreign investors to invest widely on Iranian upstream petroleum industry.
Second, long span of new contracts (15 to 20 years).
Third, to match amount of payments with the amount of profit that investors will receive.
Since Iran's economy is dependent on its petroleum industry, it can be showed that to take control of Iranian petroleum industry could be interpreted as to dominate over economy leverage of this country. From this point on, it will not be a difficult task to settle the desired balance of power in Iran.
Considering the fact that Iran has chosen London and not a city in Russia or China (or any other eastern country) to introduce this new model, it must be admitted that this tactical policy can be accounted as a green light from Tehran to the “change”.
Monday, October 20, 2014
Russia: The Rise of Economic Opportunity behind the Appearance of Sanctions
The functionality of sanctions against Russia has found to be different from that of the same sanctions against Iran. Western sanction against Russia not only caused a reduction in the Moscow's power and its capabilities, but also has made a new business opportunity.
The Russian economic crisis caused by regime of sanctions resulted in outflow of Russian capitals and Russian investors out of Russia's territory. This situation can be counted as an economic opportunity for the European economic powers and the U.S. as well. But this situation can only be viewed as an opportunity if and only if these two policies applied at the same time: first, to allow Russian investors to invest in these countries while securing their capitals, and second, to set some investment limitations for Russian investors. Those states who apply such policies can enjoy benefits of inflow of such foreign investments while avoiding risks involved in theme.
As an example: Russia has never allowed western investors to invest widely on Russian upstream petroleum industry.This policy is applied to prevent foreigners to dominate in Russian economy (or Russian economic leverages).
Therefore, western powers are able to create new opportunities for their own states via modification of bureaucracy of sanctions regime system.
The Russian economic crisis caused by regime of sanctions resulted in outflow of Russian capitals and Russian investors out of Russia's territory. This situation can be counted as an economic opportunity for the European economic powers and the U.S. as well. But this situation can only be viewed as an opportunity if and only if these two policies applied at the same time: first, to allow Russian investors to invest in these countries while securing their capitals, and second, to set some investment limitations for Russian investors. Those states who apply such policies can enjoy benefits of inflow of such foreign investments while avoiding risks involved in theme.
As an example: Russia has never allowed western investors to invest widely on Russian upstream petroleum industry.This policy is applied to prevent foreigners to dominate in Russian economy (or Russian economic leverages).
Therefore, western powers are able to create new opportunities for their own states via modification of bureaucracy of sanctions regime system.
Wednesday, October 15, 2014
Crimea, Turkey, Moscow: The report of a breach
Following the Moscow's attempt to attach Crimea to the territory of Russia, western countries have approved some sanctions against Russia. The western countries' action caused to place a part of their political credibility on a gambling table, entitled "Crimea". So, when no change is happened in the Crimea's situation, cancellation of these sanctions regime will be considered as a political failure for western countries. This failure not only will make Kremlin more assertive in pursuing its global policies, but also will make some allies of Russia that receded from the country due to these sanctions, closer to Russia; because these sanctions have damaged not only the political credibility of Moscow, but also the political credibility of Moscow's allies.
Before continuation of the tensions, it had been declared that secret cooperation with Russia is invalid. But according to the received reports, (report-1,) some Europeans want to give away Crimea's affair to Moscow in exchange for creating disturbance and damaging Turkey via Russia.
First, this behavior is considered as a violation and it will bring proper responses.
Secondly, submitting required information to Turkey is known as a possible option.
Thirdly, the order in Turkey as the only country that attempts to provide a moderate model about political Islam is required; and such a pattern in the present era is as important as the ideology of social democracy during Cold War.
Before continuation of the tensions, it had been declared that secret cooperation with Russia is invalid. But according to the received reports, (report-1,) some Europeans want to give away Crimea's affair to Moscow in exchange for creating disturbance and damaging Turkey via Russia.
First, this behavior is considered as a violation and it will bring proper responses.
Secondly, submitting required information to Turkey is known as a possible option.
Thirdly, the order in Turkey as the only country that attempts to provide a moderate model about political Islam is required; and such a pattern in the present era is as important as the ideology of social democracy during Cold War.
Monday, October 13, 2014
ISIS: The Separation
Some believe that ISIS was given a time. The basis for such a belief and claim is that the threat of ISIS terrorists was taken seriously only when the militants of this group occupied Mosul in Iraq.
In response to this claim, it should be said that until the past one year and a half ISIS has just been a terrorist group like any other terrorist groups (which was exclusively indirectly supported by Damascus in the Syrian Civil War).
Therefore, ISIS's power did not increase gradually but was suddenly boosted. In fact, ISIS could regain much strength when it was selected as a candidate for the project "heating of the geography" in the Middle East; a project which was directed by several groups around the world.
The Iraq war has clearly indicated that the terrorists are not fighting for victory but for the destruction. Terrorist is like someone who attempts a murder-suicide; he kills both himself and the others. So, hasty selection of military option in dealing with terrorist groups would not result in any outcome but failure.
The clandestine strategy to destroy ISIS was based on two basis: First, to defeat the projects that ISIS was known as a major player (in order to remove the elements which was making sense of selecting ISIS for playing the game) and Second, the secret prosecution and removal of those who have been involved in the ISIS project (to eliminate external support from this group).
These operations caused ISIS to reform an independent terrorist group, like other terrorist groups, so the design of destruction or deterrence would finally become possible.
In addition of these, the resent message from one of Taliban branches to the ISIS contains some covert as well as overt points which are necessary to be reviewed:
There is no need to analyze overt contents, but it is important to explore the secret one.
If you concentrate on this part of the message which states to ISIS "set the competitions against each other aside", it is possible to reveal the content of the undercover message. The word "competition" has a negative meaning in this context and refers to some sort of dissension among high ranked ISIS members. Therefore it can be concluded that Taliban is playing a role as a double agent who reveals ISIS' confidential information and is not a real ally for this terrorist group. So, the threat of integration of ISIS into the Taliban has been already vanished.
In response to this claim, it should be said that until the past one year and a half ISIS has just been a terrorist group like any other terrorist groups (which was exclusively indirectly supported by Damascus in the Syrian Civil War).
Therefore, ISIS's power did not increase gradually but was suddenly boosted. In fact, ISIS could regain much strength when it was selected as a candidate for the project "heating of the geography" in the Middle East; a project which was directed by several groups around the world.
The Iraq war has clearly indicated that the terrorists are not fighting for victory but for the destruction. Terrorist is like someone who attempts a murder-suicide; he kills both himself and the others. So, hasty selection of military option in dealing with terrorist groups would not result in any outcome but failure.
The clandestine strategy to destroy ISIS was based on two basis: First, to defeat the projects that ISIS was known as a major player (in order to remove the elements which was making sense of selecting ISIS for playing the game) and Second, the secret prosecution and removal of those who have been involved in the ISIS project (to eliminate external support from this group).
These operations caused ISIS to reform an independent terrorist group, like other terrorist groups, so the design of destruction or deterrence would finally become possible.
In addition of these, the resent message from one of Taliban branches to the ISIS contains some covert as well as overt points which are necessary to be reviewed:
There is no need to analyze overt contents, but it is important to explore the secret one.
If you concentrate on this part of the message which states to ISIS "set the competitions against each other aside", it is possible to reveal the content of the undercover message. The word "competition" has a negative meaning in this context and refers to some sort of dissension among high ranked ISIS members. Therefore it can be concluded that Taliban is playing a role as a double agent who reveals ISIS' confidential information and is not a real ally for this terrorist group. So, the threat of integration of ISIS into the Taliban has been already vanished.
Sunday, October 5, 2014
Palestine: The Issue of Political Stability
The recent proposal of recognizing Palestine as a state raised by Sweden can be regarded as a wise initiative to put pressure on Israel within the Israeli-Palestinian peace process through providing an alternative option for considering peace talks. This option can be selected in the case that negotiations fail.
The most important issue currently facing the Palestinian Authorities is the issue of political stability. At this time, Hamas' relationship with the Palestinian National Authorities and Mahmoud Abbas is similar to United States-Russia relationship.
Despite the fact that, Palestinian unity government of Fatah and Hamas raised high hopes about the future of Palestine, we must claim that what is running inside the body of Palestinian politics and behind the fence of news is the nature of "dissension" among Palestinian leaders. Such a dissension would certainly ruin the current promising potentials. Considering this fact, it must be claimed if the efforts on the issue of Palestinian and its future limited to the international stage, "hope" is the optimistic element about the future of Palestine.
The membership of one of the Palestinian groups in the community and particularly in the class can be considered as an easy and traditional prescription of treating "the issue of political stability" among the Palestinian population.
Accepting one of the Palestinian factions makes it possible to provide political advises for Palestinian party or use international leverages if needed, through getting informed of local events of Palestine.
The most important issue currently facing the Palestinian Authorities is the issue of political stability. At this time, Hamas' relationship with the Palestinian National Authorities and Mahmoud Abbas is similar to United States-Russia relationship.
Despite the fact that, Palestinian unity government of Fatah and Hamas raised high hopes about the future of Palestine, we must claim that what is running inside the body of Palestinian politics and behind the fence of news is the nature of "dissension" among Palestinian leaders. Such a dissension would certainly ruin the current promising potentials. Considering this fact, it must be claimed if the efforts on the issue of Palestinian and its future limited to the international stage, "hope" is the optimistic element about the future of Palestine.
The membership of one of the Palestinian groups in the community and particularly in the class can be considered as an easy and traditional prescription of treating "the issue of political stability" among the Palestinian population.
Accepting one of the Palestinian factions makes it possible to provide political advises for Palestinian party or use international leverages if needed, through getting informed of local events of Palestine.
Wednesday, October 1, 2014
The Tragedy of Wars
The fall of the two Arab dictators, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, were both victories that were achieved as a result of the successful application of military force. But both these successes became changed into failure after a while. Although todays' political changes in Iraq has raised the hope that the United States would once again return its victory in Iraq.
But the study of these failures can help to improve and modify future strategies.
Shortly after the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, a new threat of "terrorism" threatened Iraq. The Bush administration correctly identified the threat that Sunni militias and Shia insurgents had caused in Iraq, therefore, in order to keep its victory in Iraq, the president George Bush decided to apply the military option, a costly options which could only buy time for the Bush administration, but could not solve any problem.
The unfortunate memories of the Iraq war and the frustration from the use of militarism to resolve global issues caused the act of "negligence" of Obama administration to the potential dangers that were threatening the Libyan revolution after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. The lack of identifying these threats (, the threat of the emergence of extremist militias) caused a huge waste of the potential resources from which the United States and its allies could take advantage.
But the study of these failures can help to improve and modify future strategies.
Shortly after the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, a new threat of "terrorism" threatened Iraq. The Bush administration correctly identified the threat that Sunni militias and Shia insurgents had caused in Iraq, therefore, in order to keep its victory in Iraq, the president George Bush decided to apply the military option, a costly options which could only buy time for the Bush administration, but could not solve any problem.
The unfortunate memories of the Iraq war and the frustration from the use of militarism to resolve global issues caused the act of "negligence" of Obama administration to the potential dangers that were threatening the Libyan revolution after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. The lack of identifying these threats (, the threat of the emergence of extremist militias) caused a huge waste of the potential resources from which the United States and its allies could take advantage.
Tuesday, September 30, 2014
The Issue of Merchants: Russia and Sanctions
In order to realize the process of the continuation of sanctions against Moscow, both Washington and Brussels require the vote of confidence from merchants and commercial companies. Therefore holding continuing meetings with them is necessary because the recent sanctions have affected short- and long-term interests of merchants and trading companies of the West.
It is obvious that each of their individual vote to continue the sanctions regime will be negative (which also includes business companies that have identified Russia as a potential business partner in their own business future) but undoubtedly, their collective vote will be positive to continue these conditions. In other words, if a large number of businessmen and heads of corporations be invited to a meeting, you can easily attract their trust and agreement to the continuation of sanctions against Moscow.
We will get more familiar with the business approach, through a question:
Why merchants or businesses companies financially support political candidates in elections?
The goal of the formation of such support from the merchants is to get the helm of "political economy" in favor of their economic interests.
In the assumed meeting, an invisible competition would be made to get a share of the helm of political economy between the invited merchants in the meeting and the loser of this competition will be the one who objects to the policies of the country. Thus, the mechanism of competition will automatically lead to the merchants' agreement with the continuation of sanctions against Russia.
It is obvious that each of their individual vote to continue the sanctions regime will be negative (which also includes business companies that have identified Russia as a potential business partner in their own business future) but undoubtedly, their collective vote will be positive to continue these conditions. In other words, if a large number of businessmen and heads of corporations be invited to a meeting, you can easily attract their trust and agreement to the continuation of sanctions against Moscow.
We will get more familiar with the business approach, through a question:
Why merchants or businesses companies financially support political candidates in elections?
The goal of the formation of such support from the merchants is to get the helm of "political economy" in favor of their economic interests.
In the assumed meeting, an invisible competition would be made to get a share of the helm of political economy between the invited merchants in the meeting and the loser of this competition will be the one who objects to the policies of the country. Thus, the mechanism of competition will automatically lead to the merchants' agreement with the continuation of sanctions against Russia.
Saturday, September 27, 2014
Who is feeding you? (Resignation of the Chief Justice of the U.S.)
The establishment of secure order in the society has been announced as a necessary foundation. The removal of the key levers of information and violence from the sites and power centers of the society in order to the establishment of all the power in a point and in a site is a mechanism which is necessary to achieve "secure order".
Recently Eric Holder, the Chief Justice of the United States resigned under the pressure that he had gotten from the system; the pressure that caused by his access to large volumes of information and documents.
Certainly those who are appointed to the Department of Justice after him will have access to lots of information and documents as well as him and this certainly cannot be considered a threat by itself, but access to the documents is deemed to be threatening when that is determined that a supply channel feeds the person financially and politically.
Of course the mentioned feed channel is a channel that is not approved.
The receptor of the supply channels have things that the feeder is supposed to acquire them through establishing a feed channel.
Therefore, the feeding of all political parties of the country must be done through the channels approved by the system. Certainly, through the control of supply channels in the future, all the country's power share (directly or indirectly) will represent the system.
Recently Eric Holder, the Chief Justice of the United States resigned under the pressure that he had gotten from the system; the pressure that caused by his access to large volumes of information and documents.
Certainly those who are appointed to the Department of Justice after him will have access to lots of information and documents as well as him and this certainly cannot be considered a threat by itself, but access to the documents is deemed to be threatening when that is determined that a supply channel feeds the person financially and politically.
Of course the mentioned feed channel is a channel that is not approved.
The receptor of the supply channels have things that the feeder is supposed to acquire them through establishing a feed channel.
Therefore, the feeding of all political parties of the country must be done through the channels approved by the system. Certainly, through the control of supply channels in the future, all the country's power share (directly or indirectly) will represent the system.
Thursday, September 25, 2014
The Last "G" of the Cat
On the contrary to the expectations, the accident of Mosul has not been a good opening of a story for its writers. Where are those who wrote the game theory of "ISIS"; those who designed the project of the “heating of the geography” in the Middle East?!
Where are those who were so powerful until six months ago, that, world powers did not even dare to question them?!
Some are still alive. The cause of their survival is not their former power, but they have become so feeble that they have lost their real existence.
Yesterday, the American friends in territory of the U.S. and today the Great Britain attempts, to filtrate them. Surely tomorrow, the Germany that has been hesitant about the decision will join its two partners in order to filtrate and purge the mob shadow cabinet.
Cat's companies and even his restaurants (which also include restaurants that Cat did not have the official ownership) were a place to commit organized crimes. A significant number of employees of these companies and restaurants that were involved in these organized crimes and could certainly provide comprehensive information for the British agents specially about the involvement in "Mosul" project with the cooperation of the club (; the French club), were Cat's Polish employees.
Today, the largest and richest private intelligence agency of the West has been disintegrated and stopped and the signs that were used by its members to communicate with each other has been invalid, but attempts to purge personas non grata is continuing and will continue until the full deployment of the secure order.
Where are those who were so powerful until six months ago, that, world powers did not even dare to question them?!
Some are still alive. The cause of their survival is not their former power, but they have become so feeble that they have lost their real existence.
Yesterday, the American friends in territory of the U.S. and today the Great Britain attempts, to filtrate them. Surely tomorrow, the Germany that has been hesitant about the decision will join its two partners in order to filtrate and purge the mob shadow cabinet.
Cat's companies and even his restaurants (which also include restaurants that Cat did not have the official ownership) were a place to commit organized crimes. A significant number of employees of these companies and restaurants that were involved in these organized crimes and could certainly provide comprehensive information for the British agents specially about the involvement in "Mosul" project with the cooperation of the club (; the French club), were Cat's Polish employees.
Today, the largest and richest private intelligence agency of the West has been disintegrated and stopped and the signs that were used by its members to communicate with each other has been invalid, but attempts to purge personas non grata is continuing and will continue until the full deployment of the secure order.
Tuesday, September 23, 2014
Iran, Sustainable Security and the World Order
The Islamic Republic of Iran as a government that is now proud of the United States' embassy takeover incident in Tehran, after a couple of decades of 1979 Revolution can not be considered as a reliable government in the international arena. United States' Embassy takeover and the hostage crisis in Iran was a clear violation of international law in order to realize the international objectives of the revolutionary government of Iran and thus celebrating the anniversary of this event in Iran means that Iranians continue to believe in the violation of the international law as a strategy in order to realize the national and international purposes.
However, one cannot deny the fact that the international community has been successful in its efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. But this success alone would not rebuild the trust towards the Islamic Republic of Iran and this also does not make the label “potential threat” to be removed from Iran.
A part of the intelligence obtained about "ISIS" project was particularly based on data obtained from the sites located in Iran and it is obvious that the secret cooperation of some Iranian groups including some influential politicians in Tehran such as Hashemi Rafsanjani and Iranian Revolutionary Guards with some groups in the United States and Europe is worrying.
And what is certain is that not only the nuclear weapon is dangerous for the world, but microbial attacks are dangerous, too; the laboratory in one of the small European countries which produces viruses, is also threatening.
However, one cannot deny the fact that the international community has been successful in its efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. But this success alone would not rebuild the trust towards the Islamic Republic of Iran and this also does not make the label “potential threat” to be removed from Iran.
A part of the intelligence obtained about "ISIS" project was particularly based on data obtained from the sites located in Iran and it is obvious that the secret cooperation of some Iranian groups including some influential politicians in Tehran such as Hashemi Rafsanjani and Iranian Revolutionary Guards with some groups in the United States and Europe is worrying.
And what is certain is that not only the nuclear weapon is dangerous for the world, but microbial attacks are dangerous, too; the laboratory in one of the small European countries which produces viruses, is also threatening.
Monday, September 22, 2014
The Young Generation and the Rise of New Culture
The young generation certainly has not spent its childhood and adolescence in the 1970s-1980s. Although they have heard about that period from girls of the 80s who are now forty- or fifty year-old-mothers. The generation in which I spent my childhood and adolescence was definitely not a rebellious generation. Both the Bible and a Playboy magazine would never have been together on the desk. This generation does not dream of breaking social taboos because it has been released from taboos and therefore does not re-break taboos in order to achieve the right to choose. Since we have been free, we were able to choose and what we have chosen is to be "ordinariness”.
In order to have all what we want to have of the power, wealth and fame, we do not need to depend on the parameter of being "extraordinariness". Even the present dreams and hobbies of the youths in this generation are not the same of young girls and boys of the 80s.
However, if there is a similarity between our generation and the past generations, it is that we're all fighting against the generations before us.
We do not need the boring standards of the 80s to show our freedom. We live in freedom and what we want now is that the society's media center gives enough respect to this choice; to what we are.
In order to have all what we want to have of the power, wealth and fame, we do not need to depend on the parameter of being "extraordinariness". Even the present dreams and hobbies of the youths in this generation are not the same of young girls and boys of the 80s.
However, if there is a similarity between our generation and the past generations, it is that we're all fighting against the generations before us.
We do not need the boring standards of the 80s to show our freedom. We live in freedom and what we want now is that the society's media center gives enough respect to this choice; to what we are.
Saturday, September 20, 2014
Entertainment Industry: The Secure Order
Joining a considerable number of celebrities to mob groups and abetting criminal activities such as women and children trafficking as well as drug trafficking has led to the advent of a strange and unacceptable element into the entertainment industry. According to the reports received, these activities are not committed by the industry members to earn money. For example: an Oscar nominated actor assisting the women and children trafficking has not certainly been due to the economic gain but the goal of access to the services of a mob group such as the violence lever; a lever that allows its holder to use it against his/her competitors.
Homicide (which is often remains hidden under the titles such as overdose, suicide, etc.), sexual assault, frequent threats (sometimes even lead to the suicide of the victim), the disclosure of personal life information, creating criminal (judicial) traps against the victims such as the availability to have sex with persons who have not attained the legal age are the ways through which not only the established order of the competition arena of the entertainment industry becomes disturbed but sometimes it would deter the industry from launching and commissioning projects as well.
There is no doubt that two or more governments are not acceptable in any territory at a same time. The entertainment industry would not be an exception from this reality so far. Two or more distinct power base which have access to the leverages of violence and information would not be accepted and would not be allowed.
In this regard, in the first phase, following and prosecuting those criminal activities of mob groups that pass through the entertainment industry channel will be to raise the risk of using the members of the industry (in these activities) and in the next phases, this process will be completed as a result of identifying dangerous elements of the industry and limiting them by coding all their activities.
Homicide (which is often remains hidden under the titles such as overdose, suicide, etc.), sexual assault, frequent threats (sometimes even lead to the suicide of the victim), the disclosure of personal life information, creating criminal (judicial) traps against the victims such as the availability to have sex with persons who have not attained the legal age are the ways through which not only the established order of the competition arena of the entertainment industry becomes disturbed but sometimes it would deter the industry from launching and commissioning projects as well.
There is no doubt that two or more governments are not acceptable in any territory at a same time. The entertainment industry would not be an exception from this reality so far. Two or more distinct power base which have access to the leverages of violence and information would not be accepted and would not be allowed.
In this regard, in the first phase, following and prosecuting those criminal activities of mob groups that pass through the entertainment industry channel will be to raise the risk of using the members of the industry (in these activities) and in the next phases, this process will be completed as a result of identifying dangerous elements of the industry and limiting them by coding all their activities.
Tuesday, September 16, 2014
ISIS: A Note
The dust of congress has rule but not after the books are closed. While many supporters of ISIS in the Middle East and Europe have stopped (actual) supporting this terrorist group, it was expected their partners in the U.S. to do the same. But unlike them, these Americans added to their supports of ISIS.
There is no doubt that ISIS is a defunct player but a few old men who are already excluded from the cadre of power, want to take revenge on Washington and London through ISIS.
What could the recent video of murdering a Scottish victim by the terrorist group of ISIS in a very close time to the independence referendum of Scotland mean?
It is clear that the only implication that the video might have had for the Scottish people in the Britain, is that, the foreign policy of the UK in the fight against ISIS may lead to the death of the Scots. Therefore the independence of Scotland from the UK would be a better option.
Those who had been eliminated from the cadre of power were given a rating so far and it was the resist against the disclosure of the documents that could destroy the reputation they had earned over the decades. Therefore, continuing such a revengeful behavior will definitely cause the loss of the points that have not legally and morally been their rights.
But if they insist on backing up ISIS despite all of these, so it's necessary for them to do a brief search about Ali's status; the 55 years old Iraqi man, who is still living in Iraq, very wealthy, dangerous and one of the most important agents of Saudi Arabia.
Today none of wealth, circle of friends or even his background could save him from the deadlock and terror.
There is no doubt that ISIS is a defunct player but a few old men who are already excluded from the cadre of power, want to take revenge on Washington and London through ISIS.
What could the recent video of murdering a Scottish victim by the terrorist group of ISIS in a very close time to the independence referendum of Scotland mean?
It is clear that the only implication that the video might have had for the Scottish people in the Britain, is that, the foreign policy of the UK in the fight against ISIS may lead to the death of the Scots. Therefore the independence of Scotland from the UK would be a better option.
Those who had been eliminated from the cadre of power were given a rating so far and it was the resist against the disclosure of the documents that could destroy the reputation they had earned over the decades. Therefore, continuing such a revengeful behavior will definitely cause the loss of the points that have not legally and morally been their rights.
But if they insist on backing up ISIS despite all of these, so it's necessary for them to do a brief search about Ali's status; the 55 years old Iraqi man, who is still living in Iraq, very wealthy, dangerous and one of the most important agents of Saudi Arabia.
Today none of wealth, circle of friends or even his background could save him from the deadlock and terror.
Monday, September 15, 2014
The Issue of Islam: What Are Muslims Looking For?
Islam as a religion, thought or ideology, is not regarded in any way as an issue unless it is only the provider of the private life standards of Muslims. But the concerns begin when a minority of the population of the Muslims wants to use Islam as a pattern to regulate the objectives, standards and their public lifestyle. The cause of these concerns is that the groups which have attempted to provide a public lifestyle (social - political) model of Islam are usually considered as extremist groups.
ISIS, Hezbollah and the Taliban, are among the groups that have attempted to provide a social and political model of Islam.
It is clear that the models of the moderate Islam are presented in countries such as Turkey and Indonesia. But all the moderate models that have been presented for Islam are only limited to the private lives of individuals. Whereas a minority of Muslims (which the numbers are not low) are always are looking for a model of Islam to encompass the whole of their private and public lives. Certainly, if no one provides them a moderate version of Islam for the public lifestyle, they will consequently join groups such as Hezbollah, ISIS and etc.
An issue similar to this was during the Cold War, entitled as "the issue of Marxism". European and American Marxists had to search for Marxism in Soviet and China and thus the fate of their political orientation leads to any of these two countries, and thus the threat begins at this stage. Whereas if the West, like Lenin or Mao was attempting to formulate a theory for Marxism, probably a large part of European and American political interest was not growing towards China or the Soviet Union.
It should not be forgotten that most of the Marxist movements in the 1960s in Europe and mostly in France, were politically tending towards China. It certainly was not because they were preferring Maoism to Leninism, but rather was because even they themselves were searching for an ideological base except of Moscow.
ISIS, Hezbollah and the Taliban, are among the groups that have attempted to provide a social and political model of Islam.
It is clear that the models of the moderate Islam are presented in countries such as Turkey and Indonesia. But all the moderate models that have been presented for Islam are only limited to the private lives of individuals. Whereas a minority of Muslims (which the numbers are not low) are always are looking for a model of Islam to encompass the whole of their private and public lives. Certainly, if no one provides them a moderate version of Islam for the public lifestyle, they will consequently join groups such as Hezbollah, ISIS and etc.
An issue similar to this was during the Cold War, entitled as "the issue of Marxism". European and American Marxists had to search for Marxism in Soviet and China and thus the fate of their political orientation leads to any of these two countries, and thus the threat begins at this stage. Whereas if the West, like Lenin or Mao was attempting to formulate a theory for Marxism, probably a large part of European and American political interest was not growing towards China or the Soviet Union.
It should not be forgotten that most of the Marxist movements in the 1960s in Europe and mostly in France, were politically tending towards China. It certainly was not because they were preferring Maoism to Leninism, but rather was because even they themselves were searching for an ideological base except of Moscow.
Wednesday, September 10, 2014
ISIS: The report of the changes in the strategists' cadre
Following the identification of communication channels of ISIS and the failure of this group to realize the goals that they were appointed to, led ISIS to be known as a burned player. There is no doubt that the leader of ISIS is also aware of the end of its mission in Iraq. Because the two recent videos of murdering American journalists contain a secret threatening signal that is send to its own strategist. And all these mean that ISIS is ready to fight against its main strategists, who are now ISIS enemies, to survive.
Recent reports indicate that ISIS's separation from its strategist's team and also the interest of this militia group to join the Taliban.
Obviously, ISIS has largely lost its financial, informational and scientific power (including modern strategies and tactics of war) and joining the Taliban is considered as the predictability of the strategies of this terrorist group. So it can be argued that the possibility of restraining ISIS is available.
However, although we may not use the term "certainty", but it seems that the former friends of ISIS who have now become enemies of it have revealed their own cooperation in fight against ISIS. Therefore, as if they could present a game for ISIS and try to prevent them from joining the Taliban through providing false information, supplying poor strategies and even preparing (new) spurious targets for its leader, it can be predicted that ISIS has the potential to be eliminated completely.
Recent reports indicate that ISIS's separation from its strategist's team and also the interest of this militia group to join the Taliban.
Obviously, ISIS has largely lost its financial, informational and scientific power (including modern strategies and tactics of war) and joining the Taliban is considered as the predictability of the strategies of this terrorist group. So it can be argued that the possibility of restraining ISIS is available.
However, although we may not use the term "certainty", but it seems that the former friends of ISIS who have now become enemies of it have revealed their own cooperation in fight against ISIS. Therefore, as if they could present a game for ISIS and try to prevent them from joining the Taliban through providing false information, supplying poor strategies and even preparing (new) spurious targets for its leader, it can be predicted that ISIS has the potential to be eliminated completely.
Monday, September 8, 2014
Ukraine: The Crisis Diplomacy Performance
Political and military options that Russia chose in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, provided the ability to predict the Russian choices in the Ukraine's crisis for the other parties.The two options of recognizing the result of the referendum in East Ukraine as well as the option of entering Russian forces to the territories occupied by the pro-Russian militants were available after recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk by Moscow. Both of these options were implemented on Georgia, and Russia has been able to skillfully separate Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia. But now, as the leader of the militants in East Ukraine is not calling for the secession from the territory of Ukraine, it can be concluded that Moscow has entirely lost its chance to recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk and therefore any entrance of Russian military to this area means the same as military aggression against Ukraine.
But what changed the result of the game in Ukraine has probably been the priority of the issue of Syria for Moscow. Since the Presidential elections in Syria was taking place in a close distance to the referendum in East Ukraine, the possibility of forming a deal with Russia over the Syria was create at that point of time.
The deal was simple: military branch of the opponents of Bashar al-Assad leave the city of Homs and in return Russia stops supporting the pro-Russians militants.
At first, the opponents of Bashar al-Assad left Homs and John Kerry rejected the leader of Bashar al-Assad's opponents request to send weapons to them, and then the Russian military forces withdrew from the Ukraine borders and Vladimir Putin urged the East Ukrainian separatists to delay the referendum.
But about the destiny of gambling on Syria, we must admit that the White House has been the hidden winner of the game. Lack of reaction by Damascus on the recent Israel-Gaza conflict and even the lack of Bashar al-Assad's verbal support for Gaza despite his former anti-Israel stances and despite supports of Iran and Hezbollah in the Syrian Civil War in favor of Bashar al-Assad indicate that new Syria is created.
But what changed the result of the game in Ukraine has probably been the priority of the issue of Syria for Moscow. Since the Presidential elections in Syria was taking place in a close distance to the referendum in East Ukraine, the possibility of forming a deal with Russia over the Syria was create at that point of time.
The deal was simple: military branch of the opponents of Bashar al-Assad leave the city of Homs and in return Russia stops supporting the pro-Russians militants.
At first, the opponents of Bashar al-Assad left Homs and John Kerry rejected the leader of Bashar al-Assad's opponents request to send weapons to them, and then the Russian military forces withdrew from the Ukraine borders and Vladimir Putin urged the East Ukrainian separatists to delay the referendum.
But about the destiny of gambling on Syria, we must admit that the White House has been the hidden winner of the game. Lack of reaction by Damascus on the recent Israel-Gaza conflict and even the lack of Bashar al-Assad's verbal support for Gaza despite his former anti-Israel stances and despite supports of Iran and Hezbollah in the Syrian Civil War in favor of Bashar al-Assad indicate that new Syria is created.
Sunday, September 7, 2014
Ukraine's Issue: Ceasefire and Political Credibility of the West
Certainly, the number of people who were in favor of the truce in Ukraine were almost equal to the number of those who were in favor of continuing the conflicts in the country. European and American supporters of continuing the conflicts were often those who wanted to continue conflicts against the Russia through continuing the disaster in Ukraine. Probably a similar reason to this logic in Russia causes the continuous supports of Moscow for the pro-Russians in East Ukraine.
However, even if we want to look at this case in a pure mechanical way we notice that there are obstacles on using the Civil War as a way to fight against Russia. And the most important barrier is Kiev. Since the West is involved in Ukraine's issue, therefore we must admit that a part of the West's political credibility is now in the possession of the decisions by Kiev. Incorrect decisions by Kiev not only will lead the failure of Ukraine but also the elimination of a part of the West's political credibility.
Kiev has certainly the chance to achieve good advantages as the result of a secret deal with Moscow and finally will bring peace to the country by giving special privileges to Donetsk and Luhansk.
Who will lose in such a deal except the West?!
But the real threat is revealed when Kiev blackmails the West. In other words, by having such an opportunity, Ukraine can decide to persuade the West to gain some especial privileges.
So, as if the West is following to keep tensions with Russia like that of Moscow which is looking for something like this, it is necessary to give no major role to Kiev, in the conflict, in order to guarantee the preservation of the political credibility of the West.
However, even if we want to look at this case in a pure mechanical way we notice that there are obstacles on using the Civil War as a way to fight against Russia. And the most important barrier is Kiev. Since the West is involved in Ukraine's issue, therefore we must admit that a part of the West's political credibility is now in the possession of the decisions by Kiev. Incorrect decisions by Kiev not only will lead the failure of Ukraine but also the elimination of a part of the West's political credibility.
Kiev has certainly the chance to achieve good advantages as the result of a secret deal with Moscow and finally will bring peace to the country by giving special privileges to Donetsk and Luhansk.
Who will lose in such a deal except the West?!
But the real threat is revealed when Kiev blackmails the West. In other words, by having such an opportunity, Ukraine can decide to persuade the West to gain some especial privileges.
So, as if the West is following to keep tensions with Russia like that of Moscow which is looking for something like this, it is necessary to give no major role to Kiev, in the conflict, in order to guarantee the preservation of the political credibility of the West.
Thursday, September 4, 2014
Russian Oligarchy VS Russian Oligarchy
In order to reach victory in the Ukraine's crisis, the West should prevent emotional decisions on the one hand and avoid giving political points to Russia that wants to take advantages through creating a false psychological warfare. Therefore, those allies of the United States who attend with a good faith in the disputation with Russia over the Ukraine's issue now need to strike the Achilles heel of Russia's leadership. It is clear that adopting the ineffective tactic against Moscow at this point of time is equal and equivalent to support the policies of the Kremlin.
Since the privatization in Russia that led to the emergence of the powerful class of oligarchy in the country, there has always been a conflict and competition between the members of this class. Competitions that sometimes led to the use of violence lever as well. The "Yukos" case is one of the best-known examples of these competitions. However, there are other cases that represent the conflict between the oligarchy depending to Vladimir Putin and the independent oligarchy from him (which sometimes includes the former friends of Vladimir Putin, too).
Therefore, if Russia is turning to use the civil war as a weapon in Ukraine, the West can take up the option of a counter war against Moscow by creating a conflict within circle of the Russian oligarchy to in response to Kremlin's act.
Regarding that today's Russian leadership is caught in the quagmire of Ukraine as Boris Yeltsin was caught before in Chechen War, and also a group of Putin's oligarchy affiliates consider some of their long-term interests at risk under Putin's team, it can be concluded that the potential to initiate a new dispute between the Russian oligarchs class is formed with each other because the conditions for the return of a group of Russian oligarchs to body of the Russian power is provided. Needless to say that through supporting and protecting a group of them, the West can pushes the Russian oligarchs into a new rival. Thus, Russia re-enters a conflict that had experienced earlier in the course of the first Russian President and finally: a Russia incapable of entering into the international issues.
We should not also neglect the fact that the political structure of Russia is not similar to the political structure of Western and also the European countries which area member of EU; an economic crisis could easily create a major political crisis in Russia. The “Ruble crisis” is a precise instance to prove this claim.
There is no doubt that the West has been able to strike both Moscow's sphere of political influence in the international arena and attracting investor into Russia through reducing Russia's political and economic reputation. These strains in addition to the pressure from inside to the body of the Russian oligarchy can leave a devastating effect on Moscow's future.
Since the privatization in Russia that led to the emergence of the powerful class of oligarchy in the country, there has always been a conflict and competition between the members of this class. Competitions that sometimes led to the use of violence lever as well. The "Yukos" case is one of the best-known examples of these competitions. However, there are other cases that represent the conflict between the oligarchy depending to Vladimir Putin and the independent oligarchy from him (which sometimes includes the former friends of Vladimir Putin, too).
Therefore, if Russia is turning to use the civil war as a weapon in Ukraine, the West can take up the option of a counter war against Moscow by creating a conflict within circle of the Russian oligarchy to in response to Kremlin's act.
Regarding that today's Russian leadership is caught in the quagmire of Ukraine as Boris Yeltsin was caught before in Chechen War, and also a group of Putin's oligarchy affiliates consider some of their long-term interests at risk under Putin's team, it can be concluded that the potential to initiate a new dispute between the Russian oligarchs class is formed with each other because the conditions for the return of a group of Russian oligarchs to body of the Russian power is provided. Needless to say that through supporting and protecting a group of them, the West can pushes the Russian oligarchs into a new rival. Thus, Russia re-enters a conflict that had experienced earlier in the course of the first Russian President and finally: a Russia incapable of entering into the international issues.
We should not also neglect the fact that the political structure of Russia is not similar to the political structure of Western and also the European countries which area member of EU; an economic crisis could easily create a major political crisis in Russia. The “Ruble crisis” is a precise instance to prove this claim.
There is no doubt that the West has been able to strike both Moscow's sphere of political influence in the international arena and attracting investor into Russia through reducing Russia's political and economic reputation. These strains in addition to the pressure from inside to the body of the Russian oligarchy can leave a devastating effect on Moscow's future.
Thursday, August 21, 2014
Decision Pyramid of Russia and the Issue of Ukraine
West has been trying to force Moscow to change its policies on Ukraine through sanctioning Russia. However, these sanctions could not stop Russia supporting the pro-Russian militias in Ukraine. Thus, we can conclude that the only concern of the present decision pyramid in Russia as in the Cold War and the former Soviet era is to maintain their own personal interests (and not the rights and privileges of the people and Russia).
That is why the strengthening of Gazprom as the most important economic center in Russia and also promoting the political position of Moscow during post Boris Yeltsin years does not led to a tangible improvement in the quality of Russians' life.
So it is convenient for the West to determine private and personal interests of the decision pyramid's members as the target of sanctions in order to realize the pressures against Moscow or in other words to make these pressures efficient.
Certainly, when the members of Russian decision pyramid separated their own interests from the interests of Russia, it is expected that the West identifies the mentioned separation to avoid wasting the resources and quickly achieve its goals.
An important point in this respect is that Moscow's dangerous decisions on Ukraine, which eventually led to the sanctions against Russia, have definitely been against the long term interests of big economical companies of Russia such as Gazprom. But despite this fact, these companies have continued their support of the Russian leadership, so doesn't this mean that these companies confirm the Kremlin's policies?!
So it is convenient for the West to determine private and personal interests of the decision pyramid's members as the target of sanctions in order to realize the pressures against Moscow or in other words to make these pressures efficient.
Certainly, when the members of Russian decision pyramid separated their own interests from the interests of Russia, it is expected that the West identifies the mentioned separation to avoid wasting the resources and quickly achieve its goals.
An important point in this respect is that Moscow's dangerous decisions on Ukraine, which eventually led to the sanctions against Russia, have definitely been against the long term interests of big economical companies of Russia such as Gazprom. But despite this fact, these companies have continued their support of the Russian leadership, so doesn't this mean that these companies confirm the Kremlin's policies?!
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Islamic State and Syria-Iraq Puzzle
One of the goals that ISIS was following was to control oil in Iraq and selling it to Syria despite the fact that Syria was not the main purchaser but was supposed to play the role of a transferor. Since the Syrian armed forces were at war with ISIS, no one was suspicious of Damascus. But this game ended by the revelation of the communication channel between Syria and ISIS and consequently ISIS has lost a part of the investors and financiers. There were also other games that ISIS was considered as its player but were also burned by the decisions made by the White House.
However, Syria can still be considered as one of the main supporters of the Islamic State (ISIS). Therefore, as the Islamic State requires a new supporter, it is possible to control its militants through supporting ISIS and Damascus is certainly aware of the fact. Thus, there is a chance to send the threatening message of diverting the war from Iraq to Syria to Damascus. (Possibility means as the reality of the threat.) And through has forced Syria to stop its support from the Islamic State.
Also, world powers even those who had previously supported the ISIS secretly, if they predict the United States as the probable winner in Iraq, they will possibly join Washington queue in Iraq. Although accepting their support means as dividing victory in Iraq, it certainly makes the violence end faster.
However, Syria can still be considered as one of the main supporters of the Islamic State (ISIS). Therefore, as the Islamic State requires a new supporter, it is possible to control its militants through supporting ISIS and Damascus is certainly aware of the fact. Thus, there is a chance to send the threatening message of diverting the war from Iraq to Syria to Damascus. (Possibility means as the reality of the threat.) And through has forced Syria to stop its support from the Islamic State.
Also, world powers even those who had previously supported the ISIS secretly, if they predict the United States as the probable winner in Iraq, they will possibly join Washington queue in Iraq. Although accepting their support means as dividing victory in Iraq, it certainly makes the violence end faster.
Monday, August 11, 2014
About the Russian Sanctions
Russian sanctions against Western countries on one hand means as Russia's readiness to continue tensions, even if by ending the crisis in Ukraine and on the other hand it can be identified as Russia's last effort to bring Western powers back to the negotiation channel with Moscow.
But two points are so important here. Firstly, Syria, or according to the British friends "Syria's permission" is not negotiable. Therefore, it is necessary for Moscow to know that what has been achieved in Syria will not be returned to Russia. Secondly, it is important to know that Russia's carrot is certainly tempting, especially on Gazprom. So if the regime of tensions tends to continue in order to realize the great aim of weakening Russia, it is needful to ensure the interests of the Western powers.
Also, powers such as the UK and Japan, both of whom are unsure about continuing tensions with Russia, before continuing conflicts with the country it is necessary to raise their true desires and expectations. Because the regime of tensions that will have a function like an order in case of continuing and will be successful if all the countries allied with Washington move in concert with each other.
It is clear that the tensions' regime should not lead to expensive opportunities such as establishing a secret channel with Russia for friends of Washington; otherwise, the regime of tensions would fail in achieving its primary goal.
But two points are so important here. Firstly, Syria, or according to the British friends "Syria's permission" is not negotiable. Therefore, it is necessary for Moscow to know that what has been achieved in Syria will not be returned to Russia. Secondly, it is important to know that Russia's carrot is certainly tempting, especially on Gazprom. So if the regime of tensions tends to continue in order to realize the great aim of weakening Russia, it is needful to ensure the interests of the Western powers.
Also, powers such as the UK and Japan, both of whom are unsure about continuing tensions with Russia, before continuing conflicts with the country it is necessary to raise their true desires and expectations. Because the regime of tensions that will have a function like an order in case of continuing and will be successful if all the countries allied with Washington move in concert with each other.
It is clear that the tensions' regime should not lead to expensive opportunities such as establishing a secret channel with Russia for friends of Washington; otherwise, the regime of tensions would fail in achieving its primary goal.
Saturday, August 9, 2014
The Missing Piece: ‘The Winner is Loser’
As was mentioned earlier, the aim of the Israel-Gaza war was to vivify the risk element in Hamas and as the result of releasing the potential extremism of the movement. A goal which could prevent Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, in case of realization.
Therefore it can be guessed that the ending point of the battle must take place as soon as the revival of Hamas' extremism. Because ending the war at this point of time has meant as the encouragement of Hamas to continue extremism. But as it was seen, war crossed the red line of time and eventually Hamas became so weak that it can be predicted that it will continue to cooperate with the Palestinian National Authority. This collaboration is probably an essential requirement for the survival of Hamas. Therefore, the public opinion is not in favor of Israel and this will increase the bargaining power of the Palestinian National Authority in peace talks.
The most important missing piece of the game is "the winner is loser". Therefore, Netanyahu's inability to control the game, whether as the result of the wrong advice to him or the result of Netanyahu's fears from the loss of his political credibility, would not cause any changes in the outcome of the war anymore.
But the purpose of publishing this paper is firstly to reveal the outcome of this war and secondly to implicitly compare the "Snowden" game with the "Israel-Gaza war”. In “Snowden”, CIA agrees on taking the role of accuser and here the credibility of the system is reduced as a result of the implementation of the game, but Netanyahu...
Therefore it can be guessed that the ending point of the battle must take place as soon as the revival of Hamas' extremism. Because ending the war at this point of time has meant as the encouragement of Hamas to continue extremism. But as it was seen, war crossed the red line of time and eventually Hamas became so weak that it can be predicted that it will continue to cooperate with the Palestinian National Authority. This collaboration is probably an essential requirement for the survival of Hamas. Therefore, the public opinion is not in favor of Israel and this will increase the bargaining power of the Palestinian National Authority in peace talks.
The most important missing piece of the game is "the winner is loser". Therefore, Netanyahu's inability to control the game, whether as the result of the wrong advice to him or the result of Netanyahu's fears from the loss of his political credibility, would not cause any changes in the outcome of the war anymore.
But the purpose of publishing this paper is firstly to reveal the outcome of this war and secondly to implicitly compare the "Snowden" game with the "Israel-Gaza war”. In “Snowden”, CIA agrees on taking the role of accuser and here the credibility of the system is reduced as a result of the implementation of the game, but Netanyahu...
Thursday, August 7, 2014
How Did the 68 Movement Fail?
Before we discuss about the failure of the 68 movement, it is necessary to investigate some points to the importance of this study:
First, identifying the threatening element of this movement may facilitate identifying similar movements in the future. Secondly, the pattern used to inflict failure to this movement is still practical.
The worldwide protest of 1968 was formed based on the idea of opposing the existing order of that time. But opposing the existing order does not label any threats or danger on this movement because at that point of time, the 'free love' movement which was approved by the mass media has been against the society order of the time. The threatening element that was in the global movement of 1968 was opposing the purposes of the order of the time (and not only opposing the ruling order.)
What could stand against the 68 movement and could finally impose failure to this movement is first predicting the formation of this movement. The second one has been a realistic prediction of power and the ability of this movement, and the other is the awareness of the fact that the present order cannot compete or fight the new order model of the 68 movement.
All three of these predictions were right. The 68 movement was so powerful to eliminate its current order. Post modernism in the cultural arena, which means a period in which the cultural pattern of "modernism" is shelved but no new model, that includes certain rules and standards is substituted, started at the same time.
Thus, cultural and social decision-makers of that time have supported the idea of forming parallel movements with the 68 movement rather than supporting and defending the ruling order. Thus, the movements such as 'free love' found new supporters; the movement that despite its opposing against public order was not against its goals.
The most important feature of the 68 movement that led to attracting support for the movement was the slogan to oppose the ruling order. Thus, the parallel movements with the 68 movement by taking same slogan could grab the most important and attractive element of the 68 movement and finally win in the competition against it.
Finally it can be concluded that the pattern of use of the "parallel" theory or movements to eliminate any theory or movement that its emergence is unacceptable is practical.
First, identifying the threatening element of this movement may facilitate identifying similar movements in the future. Secondly, the pattern used to inflict failure to this movement is still practical.
The worldwide protest of 1968 was formed based on the idea of opposing the existing order of that time. But opposing the existing order does not label any threats or danger on this movement because at that point of time, the 'free love' movement which was approved by the mass media has been against the society order of the time. The threatening element that was in the global movement of 1968 was opposing the purposes of the order of the time (and not only opposing the ruling order.)
What could stand against the 68 movement and could finally impose failure to this movement is first predicting the formation of this movement. The second one has been a realistic prediction of power and the ability of this movement, and the other is the awareness of the fact that the present order cannot compete or fight the new order model of the 68 movement.
All three of these predictions were right. The 68 movement was so powerful to eliminate its current order. Post modernism in the cultural arena, which means a period in which the cultural pattern of "modernism" is shelved but no new model, that includes certain rules and standards is substituted, started at the same time.
Thus, cultural and social decision-makers of that time have supported the idea of forming parallel movements with the 68 movement rather than supporting and defending the ruling order. Thus, the movements such as 'free love' found new supporters; the movement that despite its opposing against public order was not against its goals.
The most important feature of the 68 movement that led to attracting support for the movement was the slogan to oppose the ruling order. Thus, the parallel movements with the 68 movement by taking same slogan could grab the most important and attractive element of the 68 movement and finally win in the competition against it.
Finally it can be concluded that the pattern of use of the "parallel" theory or movements to eliminate any theory or movement that its emergence is unacceptable is practical.
Monday, August 4, 2014
The Iceberg War
Those who only rely on the archived information identify the beginning of a new conflict between Russia and the United States to be November 2013 but the fact is that the fall of the Soviet Union did not cause any radical change in Moscow's foreign policy and this means that the existence of the dispute had never gone, but has only been frozen for a short time.
What ended the period of frozen conflict has certainly been Russia's extensive intelligence espionage against the United States. The espionage happened before the Ukraine's crisis and has certainly been the most disturbing signal that has been sent by Russia to the United States since three decades ago. Although the extent of this espionage was only limited to the United States of America and Microsoft operating systems, the depth and breadth of this intelligence was such that has not only deeply concerned Washington but also the European powers.
Certainly, as long as Moscow does not deter from pursuing its current and traditional global policies, the only thing that can guarantee the irrevocability of Russia to a dangerous status is that of undermining Moscow. But we cannot deny the fact that there is not the capacity for a long Cold War against the Russians. Therefore, a covert war against the Russian power bases that can be called the 'Iceberg War' because nine-tenths of the icebergs are under water and only one-tenth of them are visible can be a good alternative, and an always-available possibility.
What ended the period of frozen conflict has certainly been Russia's extensive intelligence espionage against the United States. The espionage happened before the Ukraine's crisis and has certainly been the most disturbing signal that has been sent by Russia to the United States since three decades ago. Although the extent of this espionage was only limited to the United States of America and Microsoft operating systems, the depth and breadth of this intelligence was such that has not only deeply concerned Washington but also the European powers.
Certainly, as long as Moscow does not deter from pursuing its current and traditional global policies, the only thing that can guarantee the irrevocability of Russia to a dangerous status is that of undermining Moscow. But we cannot deny the fact that there is not the capacity for a long Cold War against the Russians. Therefore, a covert war against the Russian power bases that can be called the 'Iceberg War' because nine-tenths of the icebergs are under water and only one-tenth of them are visible can be a good alternative, and an always-available possibility.
Sunday, July 27, 2014
Brazil: Report of a Russian operation
It has recently reported that Russia is running a plan to conduct a terrorist operation. It should be noted that this project was going to be implemented at the time of the World Cup that was stopped but is placed on the agenda again at this point of time. Based on what has been claimed three main objectives have been considered for this project:
First, diverting world public opinion from the Ukraine; second, threatening west and forcing United States to retreat from their present positions on Moscow; third, the involvement of Russian interests in terrorist acts to enter and involve Moscow in this issue. (Russian nationals and commercial centers are recognized as Russia's interests; therefore any damage to them means to allow Russia to enter this issue.)
There is no doubt that neutralizing this plan is not all that we are looking for because there is always the possibility of implementing similar projects in another time and place. Rapid identification of Brazilian agents and raising the risk of any secret cooperation with Russia could currently be the best method to weaken Russian bank.
The full report of this project was given to me a week ago but since I was aware of the approximate time of the project and was also aware that few Americans have received this report, I remained silent.
The question is that why these Americans, who have received same report as I have, were silent?
First, diverting world public opinion from the Ukraine; second, threatening west and forcing United States to retreat from their present positions on Moscow; third, the involvement of Russian interests in terrorist acts to enter and involve Moscow in this issue. (Russian nationals and commercial centers are recognized as Russia's interests; therefore any damage to them means to allow Russia to enter this issue.)
There is no doubt that neutralizing this plan is not all that we are looking for because there is always the possibility of implementing similar projects in another time and place. Rapid identification of Brazilian agents and raising the risk of any secret cooperation with Russia could currently be the best method to weaken Russian bank.
The full report of this project was given to me a week ago but since I was aware of the approximate time of the project and was also aware that few Americans have received this report, I remained silent.
The question is that why these Americans, who have received same report as I have, were silent?
Wednesday, July 23, 2014
Israel: Report of a plan on Security Council
Israel has created a new plan on the Security Council and they are going to use it. Due to this plan Israel is going to carry out serious efforts to do informal negotiations with those of non-permanent members of the Security Council whose period of membership in the Council is left less than a year (i.e., Guatemala, Morocco, Togo, etc.). The purpose that these negotiations will follow is obtaining the votes from the countries listed in the Security Council and therefore, is achieving numerical superiority in the Security Council. Thus there is no doubt that the chance of any resolution against Israel as leverage to end this war is reduced.
No need to say that merely a resolution even though by "veto" will be inefficient, will have power to force Israel too because by issuing the draft resolution, the political credibility of Tel Aviv is reduced and it's not something anyone would veto it and it is certainly an issue that is currently causing the concern of Israel. (Functioning of this political option is like the recently imposed sanctions by the US against Russia, so that the political credibility of Moscow is damaged more than the economic efficiency. Because the economic efficiency can be fixed by adopting some measures but political credibility could never!)
Finally, if Israel is seeking peace it surely does not need to make use of such plans that focusing on such a scheme certainly does not mean to need peace.
No need to say that merely a resolution even though by "veto" will be inefficient, will have power to force Israel too because by issuing the draft resolution, the political credibility of Tel Aviv is reduced and it's not something anyone would veto it and it is certainly an issue that is currently causing the concern of Israel. (Functioning of this political option is like the recently imposed sanctions by the US against Russia, so that the political credibility of Moscow is damaged more than the economic efficiency. Because the economic efficiency can be fixed by adopting some measures but political credibility could never!)
Finally, if Israel is seeking peace it surely does not need to make use of such plans that focusing on such a scheme certainly does not mean to need peace.
Thursday, July 17, 2014
Israel: The Covert War Behind the Overt War
For outside observers, the origin of the Israel-Gaza war, was the murder of three teenagers, but for those who were aware of the plan "using the war as a fraud", the mentioned scenario is not recognized as the origin of this war. There is no need to mention that this plan which was designed out of Netanyahu's cabinet, was disclosed few months ago.
Provoking Hamas by launching a wae and finally re-releasing the potential radicalization of the movement by this provocation was the aim that this war achieved it. Certainly those who did not have any interest in peace, and yet they failed to create any obstacle to peace were resorted to fraud, it was such that war was used as a fraud.
There is no doubt that the most important obstacle to peace between Israel and Palestine, is the result of the alliance between Hamas and Fatah in a way that the structure of this unison is in favor of Mahmoud Abbas' moderate positions (and not the extreme and traditional positions of Hamas). Therefore, Israel and Palestinian were closer to peace than ever.
It is obvious that the purpose of this war was neither struggling with Hamas nor defending the rights of Israeli citizens, but its purpose was to prevent the change of orders which was likely to be deployed in peace; changes of order that will surely make change of power in Israel's decision making system inevitable.
Provoking Hamas by launching a wae and finally re-releasing the potential radicalization of the movement by this provocation was the aim that this war achieved it. Certainly those who did not have any interest in peace, and yet they failed to create any obstacle to peace were resorted to fraud, it was such that war was used as a fraud.
There is no doubt that the most important obstacle to peace between Israel and Palestine, is the result of the alliance between Hamas and Fatah in a way that the structure of this unison is in favor of Mahmoud Abbas' moderate positions (and not the extreme and traditional positions of Hamas). Therefore, Israel and Palestinian were closer to peace than ever.
It is obvious that the purpose of this war was neither struggling with Hamas nor defending the rights of Israeli citizens, but its purpose was to prevent the change of orders which was likely to be deployed in peace; changes of order that will surely make change of power in Israel's decision making system inevitable.
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
The report on "It's Her"
The fiction "It's Her" is written based on a true story, but was not a true report. In the article ahead, the reports of the blunt fact become clear.
Overall, two rape and a sexual abuse has been done on the victim. The first assault goes back to distant years, although the victim was older than eighteen. The sexual assault is done by the rapist's resorting to physical force. It is said that the rapist had lost his control due to excess alcohol consumption.
The second rape was committed in December 2012 against the victim. Rape was done in the victim's house and by her friend (which was her guest at the time), Santos, an American model and actor. It has been argued that assault took place when the victim was sleeping in her bed. There are undeniable evidences such as bruise in the area of penetration was which indicates that violation was along with the violence of the rapist and natural prevention (physiological) of the victim. However, the relationship of these two was not completely cut off from each other. It should be noted that the victim was pregnant at that point of time.
The third abuse as a third case of the study took place in the summer 2013 in a Cruise Ship. The person committed the action without touching the victim and through creating fear and not threatening her makes the victim to get naked (which is similar to the order.) He makes a 'dirty' video of her and rubs the documents the victim had. (It should be noted that the video is of high quality.) Needless to say that this mission was preplanned and the person committing the act has been an agent. (A copy of the obtained documents was present in the system.)
The purpose of publishing this report has not certainly been an infantile exposure from the private live a girl who became pregnant but never gave birth to a baby but the aim was to show the weakness of the club in the defending the members. Therefore it is recommended that the club sooner ignores the motivation of gathering groups of young people, mostly girls, who are collected in order to be addicted and training them.
Also for those who are interested and curious about identifying the origins of the club, probably this much information is enough to be revealed, these organizations were first emerged during the Cold War and were cleared in three stages during years 1957, 1966 and 1972. (This information should not be removed, altered or missed from the archive.)
Overall, two rape and a sexual abuse has been done on the victim. The first assault goes back to distant years, although the victim was older than eighteen. The sexual assault is done by the rapist's resorting to physical force. It is said that the rapist had lost his control due to excess alcohol consumption.
The second rape was committed in December 2012 against the victim. Rape was done in the victim's house and by her friend (which was her guest at the time), Santos, an American model and actor. It has been argued that assault took place when the victim was sleeping in her bed. There are undeniable evidences such as bruise in the area of penetration was which indicates that violation was along with the violence of the rapist and natural prevention (physiological) of the victim. However, the relationship of these two was not completely cut off from each other. It should be noted that the victim was pregnant at that point of time.
The third abuse as a third case of the study took place in the summer 2013 in a Cruise Ship. The person committed the action without touching the victim and through creating fear and not threatening her makes the victim to get naked (which is similar to the order.) He makes a 'dirty' video of her and rubs the documents the victim had. (It should be noted that the video is of high quality.) Needless to say that this mission was preplanned and the person committing the act has been an agent. (A copy of the obtained documents was present in the system.)
The purpose of publishing this report has not certainly been an infantile exposure from the private live a girl who became pregnant but never gave birth to a baby but the aim was to show the weakness of the club in the defending the members. Therefore it is recommended that the club sooner ignores the motivation of gathering groups of young people, mostly girls, who are collected in order to be addicted and training them.
Also for those who are interested and curious about identifying the origins of the club, probably this much information is enough to be revealed, these organizations were first emerged during the Cold War and were cleared in three stages during years 1957, 1966 and 1972. (This information should not be removed, altered or missed from the archive.)
Tuesday, July 15, 2014
Iraq: Report of a plan
The following report contains information about the new plan on Iraq that have recently been obtained.
Based on this plan, the project of 'Long-term civil war' in Syria which was supposed to make an important part of the theory of "heating of the geography of East (Middle East)," failed, is supposed to be implemented in Iraq.
The most important element that the executers of this plan require to implement is the element of incitement and fomenting nationalist and ethnicity sentiments of Iraqi people.
The important point is that, in this plan, both destinies that the Iraqi government can experience, that is the survival of the government of Nouri al-Maliki and the emergence of a new government, is planned and the necessary provision have been made. So, what is going to happen is to disappoint the government in following its goals. Certainly, since the change of government of Iraq is considered as the last trump in Baghdad, we can conclude that the government will be vulnerable in case of failure and provoking nationalist and ethnicity sentiments; thus, starting a civil war would not be too difficult.
The preliminary key to this plan is silence; therefore it is no surprise that the ISIS has recently started to be silent in a semi-active mode while threatening is a part of this terrorist group. There is no doubt that persuading Washington the international community to shut down is prerequisite for implementing this plan.
This project aims to look forward the coming goals: a long-term civil war in Iraq and using this war in creating psychological warfare. Therefore, the issues of the analysis of Iraq and the federal government to work in Iraq or the emergence of the Federalism regime are not among the objectives of this plan. (So, it is clear that the architect of this project has not been American.)
Based on this plan, the project of 'Long-term civil war' in Syria which was supposed to make an important part of the theory of "heating of the geography of East (Middle East)," failed, is supposed to be implemented in Iraq.
The most important element that the executers of this plan require to implement is the element of incitement and fomenting nationalist and ethnicity sentiments of Iraqi people.
The important point is that, in this plan, both destinies that the Iraqi government can experience, that is the survival of the government of Nouri al-Maliki and the emergence of a new government, is planned and the necessary provision have been made. So, what is going to happen is to disappoint the government in following its goals. Certainly, since the change of government of Iraq is considered as the last trump in Baghdad, we can conclude that the government will be vulnerable in case of failure and provoking nationalist and ethnicity sentiments; thus, starting a civil war would not be too difficult.
The preliminary key to this plan is silence; therefore it is no surprise that the ISIS has recently started to be silent in a semi-active mode while threatening is a part of this terrorist group. There is no doubt that persuading Washington the international community to shut down is prerequisite for implementing this plan.
This project aims to look forward the coming goals: a long-term civil war in Iraq and using this war in creating psychological warfare. Therefore, the issues of the analysis of Iraq and the federal government to work in Iraq or the emergence of the Federalism regime are not among the objectives of this plan. (So, it is clear that the architect of this project has not been American.)
Monday, July 14, 2014
Afghanistan: Dreamy Instability
The preliminary result of the recent elections in Afghanistan was accompanied with the protest of one of the election candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, the former foreign minister of Afghanistan. Therefore, what makes the protests of this period important than the similar period in the past, is that Abdullah has threatened to take options which disturbs the peace and political stability in Afghanistan. But the truth is that neither Abdullah nor his supporters have the potential to do a rebellious behavior to disturb disciplines in order to take political control of the capital and this is an issue that Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan's president is well aware of it because no reaction has been merged to Abdullah's statement as the Afghan parliament has not done such a thing. Certainly this political behavior of Kabul is the sign of Kabul's politicians recognizing Abdullah's personality, as well as citizens of Afghanistan.
However, the international community is unaware of what is actually happening in Afghanistan, but the other side of reality in Afghanistan is the reduction in the United States' spheres of influence in the country so that Karzai has defended Moscow even in the case of the Ukraine's crisis and the annexation of Crimea to Russia. So Washington now has the chance to adopt a behavior that represents the management of "crisis prevention" on Afghanistan on one hand, led to the attraction of Kabul and repairing its spheres of influence in the country.
Bearing in mind that Karzai expressed his willingness to accept financial aid from Moscow and the Russia's recent economic protection from the country has certainly transmitted new signals to Washington.
However, the international community is unaware of what is actually happening in Afghanistan, but the other side of reality in Afghanistan is the reduction in the United States' spheres of influence in the country so that Karzai has defended Moscow even in the case of the Ukraine's crisis and the annexation of Crimea to Russia. So Washington now has the chance to adopt a behavior that represents the management of "crisis prevention" on Afghanistan on one hand, led to the attraction of Kabul and repairing its spheres of influence in the country.
Bearing in mind that Karzai expressed his willingness to accept financial aid from Moscow and the Russia's recent economic protection from the country has certainly transmitted new signals to Washington.
Friday, July 11, 2014
The New Entertainment Industry of Indonesia
Indonesia has the largest number of Muslims in the world. But the huge Islamic potential which is doubled by being placed in East Asia and due to the lack of providing any cultural model of Islam, Indonesia could not win a part of the cultural balancing of powers in Asia as well as in Islamic world.
It is obvious that creating or modifying any order either in the internal arena of the country or the international arena requires a change in the balance of power or in other words, controlling the power balance.
Indonesia is one of the potential that can be used as a pressure lever in the weakest prediction and as a new model in the realistic assumption and the prediction appears to be in favor of modern new entertainment industry.
But before presenting this model, it is necessary to recognize the Indonesian society, as ling as the features and elements of the social, cultural and psychological elements of the Indonesian society are not recognized, we can never propose an appropriate model for the country.
Indonesian society is engaged in a paradox between secular modernism and religious traditionalism. Government, economic enterprises and the Media often behave based on non-religious modernism. For example, the government does not try to provide an appropriate education of Islam to the new generation through the education system. Economic enterprises and service companies usually hire women who have no Islamic appearance. Many Indonesian films contain sexual content which are often made by Indian. However, Islam is considered as the spirit of Indonesia and even the younger generation. The reason for this is that the Indonesian society is strongly traditionalist and the Islamic thought (or religion) is mixed and integrated in the traditions of this country. Integration of a religion with the traditions of the society lead to the increasing influence of that religion and its sustainability.
So as long as the desire for traditionalism is alive, every thought that are integrated with it will also survives. There is exist a sample like the Indonesian one in Somalia, where Islam is mixed with traditions so that it is impossible to clean and separate the Islamic doctrine from customs which are rooted in the traditions of Somalia.
Thus, the only cultural model can fulfill the cultural demands of the society in Indonesia which has been created and provided considering the parameter of religious traditionalism. But as the recognition of the Indonesian people, especially the younger generation in this country is enough, providing such a model would not be so difficult.
Indonesian people and especially the young generation have been exposed to the undeniable fact “lifestyle changes” in spite of traditionalism, and this means discovering new capacities for having or experiencing modern life in Indonesia. So the people of Indonesia are asking for a cultural model that allows them to experience tradition-modern life with parameters that they have accepted and not all the dimensions of cultural modernism; the criterion such as, adherence to religious worship, the sanctity of virginity before marriage, emphasis on the family unit in the society and freedom of youth in communicating with the opposite sex.
It should also be noted that the silence of Indonesian society against the entertainment industry of the country that opposes religious tradition of Indonesian society does not mean as accepting patterns by the Indonesian people. Indonesian society does not have an aggressive spirit and is not so revolutionary, therefore it becomes silent and does not fight towards patterns that it does not accept.
For example: majority of Indonesian including the young generation of the country have a positive view towards the country's former dictator, Suharto. One who gained power through a coup and committed military aggression and crimes in Timor-Leste. The reason which is often stated about him is that of right economic policies which were adopted at his time.
As a result, the group which can implement such a cultural model in Indonesia will surely confront accepting public opinion and it provides them the opportunity to obtain apart of the cultural balancing of powers in Islamic world by creating a new cultural model.
It is obvious that creating or modifying any order either in the internal arena of the country or the international arena requires a change in the balance of power or in other words, controlling the power balance.
Indonesia is one of the potential that can be used as a pressure lever in the weakest prediction and as a new model in the realistic assumption and the prediction appears to be in favor of modern new entertainment industry.
But before presenting this model, it is necessary to recognize the Indonesian society, as ling as the features and elements of the social, cultural and psychological elements of the Indonesian society are not recognized, we can never propose an appropriate model for the country.
Indonesian society is engaged in a paradox between secular modernism and religious traditionalism. Government, economic enterprises and the Media often behave based on non-religious modernism. For example, the government does not try to provide an appropriate education of Islam to the new generation through the education system. Economic enterprises and service companies usually hire women who have no Islamic appearance. Many Indonesian films contain sexual content which are often made by Indian. However, Islam is considered as the spirit of Indonesia and even the younger generation. The reason for this is that the Indonesian society is strongly traditionalist and the Islamic thought (or religion) is mixed and integrated in the traditions of this country. Integration of a religion with the traditions of the society lead to the increasing influence of that religion and its sustainability.
So as long as the desire for traditionalism is alive, every thought that are integrated with it will also survives. There is exist a sample like the Indonesian one in Somalia, where Islam is mixed with traditions so that it is impossible to clean and separate the Islamic doctrine from customs which are rooted in the traditions of Somalia.
Thus, the only cultural model can fulfill the cultural demands of the society in Indonesia which has been created and provided considering the parameter of religious traditionalism. But as the recognition of the Indonesian people, especially the younger generation in this country is enough, providing such a model would not be so difficult.
Indonesian people and especially the young generation have been exposed to the undeniable fact “lifestyle changes” in spite of traditionalism, and this means discovering new capacities for having or experiencing modern life in Indonesia. So the people of Indonesia are asking for a cultural model that allows them to experience tradition-modern life with parameters that they have accepted and not all the dimensions of cultural modernism; the criterion such as, adherence to religious worship, the sanctity of virginity before marriage, emphasis on the family unit in the society and freedom of youth in communicating with the opposite sex.
It should also be noted that the silence of Indonesian society against the entertainment industry of the country that opposes religious tradition of Indonesian society does not mean as accepting patterns by the Indonesian people. Indonesian society does not have an aggressive spirit and is not so revolutionary, therefore it becomes silent and does not fight towards patterns that it does not accept.
For example: majority of Indonesian including the young generation of the country have a positive view towards the country's former dictator, Suharto. One who gained power through a coup and committed military aggression and crimes in Timor-Leste. The reason which is often stated about him is that of right economic policies which were adopted at his time.
As a result, the group which can implement such a cultural model in Indonesia will surely confront accepting public opinion and it provides them the opportunity to obtain apart of the cultural balancing of powers in Islamic world by creating a new cultural model.
Thursday, July 10, 2014
Ukraine: The Energy’s Cards
Ukraine and Russia will soon enter negotiations about the sale of Russian gas but the difference in energy negotiations with the last time is that Kiev is able to undertake the Civil War and at the same time Moscow was not able to be acquitted from the charge of supporting the militants of East Ukraine and this means that the crisis of East Ukraine has become a winner card for Kiev, whereas in the last period, this crisis was considered as a victory for Moscow. But Kiev can be benefited by this card when Washington and its allies try to suppress Moscow in negotiations through considering failure factors of Moscow from vindicating the support of pro-Russians in East of Ukraine and victories of the president of Ukraine. It should be noted that Gazprom is the last trump card of Kremlin to change the game in favor of the Moscow, therefor; if West fails to apply pressure on Moscow, Russia will then be able to use Gazprom as a trump card.
Ultimately, of course, putting the card of East Ukraine crisis on energy negotiations would be able to persuade Kremlin to make realistic decisions based on realism.
Ultimately, of course, putting the card of East Ukraine crisis on energy negotiations would be able to persuade Kremlin to make realistic decisions based on realism.
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
ISIS: Executive of the Blood Oil Theory
ISIS's power derived from its vast financial resources and financing channels that it has achieved. So as long as funding continues, terrorist activities of ISIS will continue. Therefore, it can be argued that the battle against ISIS is the war against resources. In such a battle we can only win if we eliminate the financing channels.
Undoubtedly, it is illusory to imagine that financial channels can be destroyed directly and straight but it is necessary to identify the target groups that are attempting to finance ISIS and finally disappointing them in achieving their goals, cause the end of financing ISIS. Certainly, obtaining cheap oil is one of the great hopes of groups that are supporting ISIS today. Thus, the ISIS is defeated in its mission to gain control of oil and providing cheap oil, and that failure becomes inevitable, then we can hope that ISIS was seen as a burnt game and financial support of these groups must be cut.
One of the ways through which one can carry to stop ISIS from its mission, is the same action that French foreign minister has done recently; he recently announced that ISIS sell Iraqi oil to Syria. There is no doubt that groups which are supporting ISIS, try to maintain their credit despite their desire to achieve cheap oil, in other words, in the realm of politics and business, protecting and enhance the credibility and reputation will always take precedence over other goals, such as power and wealth. Therefore, to obtain documents and information undeniable to pressure the groups that are supporting ISIS will be a practical soft weapon against the hard war.
Undoubtedly, it is illusory to imagine that financial channels can be destroyed directly and straight but it is necessary to identify the target groups that are attempting to finance ISIS and finally disappointing them in achieving their goals, cause the end of financing ISIS. Certainly, obtaining cheap oil is one of the great hopes of groups that are supporting ISIS today. Thus, the ISIS is defeated in its mission to gain control of oil and providing cheap oil, and that failure becomes inevitable, then we can hope that ISIS was seen as a burnt game and financial support of these groups must be cut.
One of the ways through which one can carry to stop ISIS from its mission, is the same action that French foreign minister has done recently; he recently announced that ISIS sell Iraqi oil to Syria. There is no doubt that groups which are supporting ISIS, try to maintain their credit despite their desire to achieve cheap oil, in other words, in the realm of politics and business, protecting and enhance the credibility and reputation will always take precedence over other goals, such as power and wealth. Therefore, to obtain documents and information undeniable to pressure the groups that are supporting ISIS will be a practical soft weapon against the hard war.
Monday, July 7, 2014
Asia as the Opportunity for Delhi and India as the Opportunity for Washington
Political and strategic behaviors of the new leadership of India in the political arena, represents the high political expectations of Delhi. There is no doubt that India is facing two options. The first option which is in favor of the political nature and status of India, is raising the level of competition with China and implementing a new competitive dialogue to explore and achieve new goals and opportunities in Asia and the world. The second option is to break the political taboos in India and starting a new season with removing tensions in its relations with China and Pakistan.
Moscow soon noticed the changes in New Delhi and therefore tries to play with the Pakistan's card including signing a recent contract with this country on the energy and omitting the sanction on military sales to Islamabad tries to prevent the changes in Delhi's policies.
An important point is that Delhi would not be able to select the mentioned first option without the support of Washington.
India will definitely have enough potential to be able to replace China in the Asia and maybe the global arena in the future. But what is possible to make the Hindi potential attractive, is the relatively hostile competition between India and China. So the increase of this competition in Asia will lead Delhi to change as the balance wheel of Asia. Undoubtedly, the balance wheel theory, the aim of which is to distribute of power in a way that prevents a country from being a superpower and can be found as a means to curb the growing power of Beijing in Asia.
But what should be noted is that the relationship between Pakistan and India should not be worse than what it is, because the increased competition between Pakistan and India will increase the costs in Delhi and this reduces their ability to compete with China, therefore there is no doubt that the winner of a hostile rivalry between India and Pakistan would definitely be Beijing.
Moscow soon noticed the changes in New Delhi and therefore tries to play with the Pakistan's card including signing a recent contract with this country on the energy and omitting the sanction on military sales to Islamabad tries to prevent the changes in Delhi's policies.
An important point is that Delhi would not be able to select the mentioned first option without the support of Washington.
India will definitely have enough potential to be able to replace China in the Asia and maybe the global arena in the future. But what is possible to make the Hindi potential attractive, is the relatively hostile competition between India and China. So the increase of this competition in Asia will lead Delhi to change as the balance wheel of Asia. Undoubtedly, the balance wheel theory, the aim of which is to distribute of power in a way that prevents a country from being a superpower and can be found as a means to curb the growing power of Beijing in Asia.
But what should be noted is that the relationship between Pakistan and India should not be worse than what it is, because the increased competition between Pakistan and India will increase the costs in Delhi and this reduces their ability to compete with China, therefore there is no doubt that the winner of a hostile rivalry between India and Pakistan would definitely be Beijing.
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