Saturday, October 24, 2015

Palestine: For Revolution One Can Die

The political solution and specially negotiation was undoubtedly the only successful solution to the Ukraine Crisis and the misunderstanding crisis of Iranian nuclear program. But a political solution can only lead to resolve the issues when it is supported and guaranteed with leverages such as sanctions, lynch law and public opinion. 
Based on the historical experience, "revolution" is the most common method of decolonization for nations that are seeking independence. The method, from American Revolutionary War up to the 1960s, known as decolonization decade, is approved. It is apparent that Palestinians have chosen the right way to be independent and end to Israeli occupation; revolution! A revolution is a holy stage of the society that chooses "we" over "I". And it is the true power of a revolution. And so, revolution has the world support. But there is no support for blind assassination. There is no support for extremism which is not Islamic. Quran says "If anyone killed a person, unless it be for retaliation of murder or because of making mischief in the land, it would be regarded as if he killed mankind as a whole". (5:32)
It is worth mentioning that South Africa will never forget Mandela although he is not alive, but the country prefer to forget his partner, Winnie, although she is living in South Africa. 
Considering the fact that the war is destroying many lives, the system support effective political solution. The negotiation is a form of soft war. "Power" and not "academic arguments” is the determining factor of the political negotiations. Therefore, the system will use all methods to put pressure on Israel in order to Jerusalem to be recognized as the future capital of the Palestinian state on the basis of international law. 
And at the end, the system admires the smart behavior of Mahmoud Abbas and patience of Hamas in order to prevent another war.

Saturday, October 17, 2015

Middle East: "The Joy of Dealing with Russia"

Let us make all sure, the fourth "expansionism war" has begun and it will not end soon. One will win the war that does live with not inside it. 
Maybe some member of the system do not know that Donald Trump has been to Cuba twice in the current year. But most of the members must know this fact that Russia has recently released an old and unseen video of Mohammad bin Salman in order to hide the death of this Saudi prince. The acting of Putin in favor of Riyadh was surprising. 
According to the classified information, Moscow has agreed to play the role of mediator in the Yemen war in order to rescue the Saudi regime from the war. And Riyadh needs a neutral power to put an end to its failed strategy. 
Simply, Moscow is not qualified for this role. But the UN and Oman are proper options. The message of the system to Saudi Arabia is: "Win this war if you can." 
Also, since Britain and EU have no military intervention in Syrian crisis, so they can quickly change their positions on Bashar al-Assad. And those who have had direct intervention may suddenly be isolated or win the war. London and EU may adopt new position on Syria six months or a year later. And what will happen if Washington continues to be involved in the Syrian civil war at that point of time?! 
Although it can be still confidently said that Moscow cannot win the war but precautions are necessary. According this, Donald Trump position on Syria is an alternative option to increase the political capacity of Washington. Thus the option of "safe exit" is considered for the strategy of the United States on Syria. However, this is not end of the game, but it is a guarantee. 
The disappointed and loser player is dangerous. So these two options will be given to the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad and Gen. Mohamed Heikmat Ibrahim: Launching a new chapter of Syrian crisis and the other, oversea fight against exporters of terrorism including Riyadh and Ankara. It is expected this offering be responded within the 72 hours. Obviously, if it is rejected, the system will automatically put the first option on its agenda.

Thursday, October 8, 2015

Middle East: Artificial Warfare

Some of the Western countries were not aware of Moscow's decision on attacks in Syria, but Tel Aviv was aware of the decision. Because Moscow and Tel Aviv had agreed that coordinate the Russia's military actions in Syria with Israel. Ironically, despite the fact that such a deal should be a secret based on its nature, but this one is not! 
The actual and potential goals of Russia's attacks in Syria are as follows: 
- Maintain the position of Russia in Iran through engaging Tehran in the new Kremlin's game in Syria (just like a casino's "poker shield") as well as remove Iranian role in the Syrian peace process to reduce the chances of Iran to improve the relations with the Western states. 
- Distract Tehran from the cessation of Al-Anbar liberation operation and buy some times for ISIS in order to rebuild itself in Iraq. 
- Damage the political credibility of the West. At this point of time, some cards are "kingmakers" including Tehran and London. 
- Expand the Moscow influence in the Middle East. (Russia even tried to invite China to its own coalition). 
And this fact should not be also omitted that Iran is a rival to Russia. Russia and Iran are not allies. Therefore, if Iran could improve its relations with the West and improve human rights in the domestic area (by reducing the rate of executions) then new opportunities would be gained. None of the Russia, Israel and the Arab states do not certainly want such a thing. 
The system proposed Tehran to wait at least for six months. If Russians attacks are continues and do not only include Syria, it can be claimed that Moscow is playing a good role in the Middle East.
In the end, political-security investments in Iraq must be increased by both Tehran and the system.