Sunday, July 27, 2014

Brazil: Report of a Russian operation

It has recently reported that Russia is running a plan to conduct a terrorist operation. It should be noted that this project was going to be implemented at the time of the World Cup that was stopped but is placed on the agenda again at this point of time. Based on what has been claimed three main objectives have been considered for this project:
First, diverting world public opinion from the Ukraine; second, threatening west and forcing United States to retreat from their present positions on Moscow; third, the involvement of Russian interests in terrorist acts to enter and involve Moscow in this issue. (Russian nationals and commercial centers are recognized as Russia's interests; therefore any damage to them means to allow Russia to enter this issue.)
There is no doubt that neutralizing this plan is not all that we are looking for because there is always the possibility of implementing similar projects in another time and place. Rapid identification of Brazilian agents and raising the risk of any secret cooperation with Russia could currently be the best method to weaken Russian bank.
The full report of this project was given to me a week ago but since I was aware of the approximate time of the project and was also aware that few Americans have received this report, I remained silent.
The question is that why these Americans, who have received same report as I have, were silent?

Wednesday, July 23, 2014

Israel: Report of a plan on Security Council

Israel has created a new plan on the Security Council and they are going to use it. Due to this plan Israel is going to carry out serious efforts to do informal negotiations with those of non-permanent members of the Security Council whose period of membership in the Council is left less than a year (i.e., Guatemala, Morocco, Togo, etc.). The purpose that these negotiations will follow is obtaining the votes from the countries listed in the Security Council and therefore, is achieving numerical superiority in the Security Council. Thus there is no doubt that the chance of any resolution against Israel as leverage to end this war is reduced.
No need to say that merely a resolution even though by "veto" will be inefficient, will have power to force Israel too because by issuing the draft resolution, the political credibility of Tel Aviv is reduced and it's not something anyone would veto it and it is certainly an issue that is currently causing the concern of Israel. (Functioning of this political option is like the recently imposed sanctions by the US against Russia, so that the political credibility of Moscow is damaged more than the economic efficiency. Because the economic efficiency can be fixed by adopting some measures but political credibility could never!)
Finally, if Israel is seeking peace it surely does not need to make use of such plans that focusing on such a scheme certainly does not mean to need peace.

Thursday, July 17, 2014

Israel: The Covert War Behind the Overt War

For outside observers, the origin of the Israel-Gaza war, was the murder of three teenagers, but for those who were aware of the plan "using the war as a fraud", the mentioned scenario is not recognized as the origin of this war. There is no need to mention that this plan which was designed out of Netanyahu's cabinet, was disclosed few months ago.  
Provoking Hamas by launching a wae and finally re-releasing the potential radicalization of the movement by this provocation was the aim that this war achieved it. Certainly those who did not have any interest in peace, and yet they failed to create any obstacle to peace were resorted to fraud, it was such that war was used as a fraud.  
There is no doubt that the most important obstacle to peace between Israel and Palestine, is the result of the alliance between Hamas and Fatah in a way that the structure of this unison is in favor of Mahmoud Abbas' moderate positions (and not the extreme and traditional positions of Hamas). Therefore, Israel and Palestinian were closer to peace than ever.  
It is obvious that the purpose of this war was neither struggling with Hamas nor defending the rights of Israeli citizens, but its purpose was to prevent the change of orders which was likely to be deployed in peace; changes of order that will surely make change of power in Israel's decision making system inevitable.

Wednesday, July 16, 2014

The report on "It's Her"

The fiction "It's Her" is written based on a true story, but was not a true report. In the article ahead, the reports of the blunt fact become clear.  
Overall, two rape and a sexual abuse has been done on the victim. The first assault goes back to distant years, although the victim was older than eighteen. The sexual assault is done by the rapist's resorting to physical force. It is said that the rapist had lost his control due to excess alcohol consumption.
The second rape was committed in December 2012 against the victim. Rape was done in the victim's house and by her friend (which was her guest at the time), Santos, an American model and actor. It has been argued that assault took place when the victim was sleeping in her bed. There are undeniable evidences such as bruise in the area of penetration was which indicates that violation was along with the violence of the rapist and natural prevention (physiological) of the victim. However, the relationship of these two was not completely cut off from each other. It should be noted that the victim was pregnant at that point of time.
The third abuse as a third case of the study took place in the summer 2013 in a Cruise Ship. The person committed the action without touching the victim and through creating fear and not threatening her makes the victim to get naked (which is similar to the order.) He makes a 'dirty' video of her and rubs the documents the victim had. (It should be noted that the video is of high quality.) Needless to say that this mission was preplanned and the person committing the act has been an agent. (A copy of the obtained documents was present in the system.) 
The purpose of publishing this report has not certainly been an infantile exposure from the private live a girl who became pregnant but never gave birth to a baby but the aim was to show the weakness of the club in the defending the members. Therefore it is recommended that the club sooner ignores the motivation of gathering groups of young people, mostly girls, who are collected in order to be addicted and training them.
Also for those who are interested and curious about identifying the origins of the club, probably this much information is enough to be revealed, these organizations were first emerged during the Cold War and were cleared in three stages during years 1957, 1966 and 1972. (This information should not be removed, altered or missed from the archive.)

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Iraq: Report of a plan

The following report contains information about the new plan on Iraq that have recently been obtained.
Based on this plan, the project of 'Long-term civil war' in Syria which was supposed to make an important part of the theory of "heating of the geography of East (Middle East)," failed, is supposed to be implemented in Iraq.  
The most important element that the executers of this plan require to implement is the element of incitement and fomenting nationalist and ethnicity sentiments of Iraqi people.
The important point is that, in this plan, both destinies that the Iraqi government can experience, that is the survival of the government of Nouri al-Maliki and the emergence of a new government, is planned and the necessary provision have been made. So, what is going to happen is to disappoint the government in following its goals. Certainly, since the change of government of Iraq is considered as the last trump in Baghdad, we can conclude that the government will be vulnerable in case of failure and provoking nationalist and ethnicity sentiments; thus, starting a civil war would not be too difficult. 
The preliminary key to this plan is silence; therefore it is no surprise that the ISIS has recently started to be silent in a semi-active mode while threatening is a part of this terrorist group. There is no doubt that persuading Washington the international community to shut down is prerequisite for implementing this plan.  
This project aims to look forward the coming goals: a long-term civil war in Iraq and using this war in creating psychological warfare. Therefore, the issues of the analysis of Iraq and the federal government to work in Iraq or the emergence of the Federalism regime are not among the objectives of this plan. (So, it is clear that the architect of this project has not been American.)

Monday, July 14, 2014

Afghanistan: Dreamy Instability

The preliminary result of the recent elections in Afghanistan was accompanied with the protest of one of the election candidates, Abdullah Abdullah, the former foreign minister of Afghanistan. Therefore, what makes the protests of this period important than the similar period in the past, is that Abdullah has threatened to take options which disturbs the peace and political stability in Afghanistan. But the truth is that neither Abdullah nor his supporters have the potential to do a rebellious behavior to disturb disciplines in order to take political control of the capital and this is an issue that Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan's president is well aware of it because no reaction has been merged to Abdullah's statement as the Afghan parliament has not done such a thing. Certainly this political behavior of Kabul is the sign of Kabul's politicians recognizing Abdullah's personality, as well as citizens of Afghanistan. 
However, the international community is unaware of what is actually happening in Afghanistan, but the other side of reality in Afghanistan is the reduction in the United States' spheres of influence in the country so that Karzai has defended Moscow even in the case of the Ukraine's crisis and the annexation of Crimea to Russia. So Washington now has the chance to adopt a behavior that represents the management of "crisis prevention" on Afghanistan on one hand, led to the attraction of Kabul and repairing its spheres of influence in the country.  
Bearing in mind that Karzai expressed his willingness to accept financial aid from Moscow and the Russia's recent economic protection from the country has certainly transmitted new signals to Washington.

Friday, July 11, 2014

The New Entertainment Industry of Indonesia

Indonesia has the largest number of Muslims in the world. But the huge Islamic potential which is doubled by being placed in East Asia and due to the lack of providing any cultural model of Islam, Indonesia could not win a part of the cultural balancing of powers in Asia as well as in Islamic world.
It is obvious that creating or modifying any order either in the internal arena of the country or the international arena requires a change in the balance of power or in other words, controlling the power balance.
Indonesia is one of the potential that can be used as a pressure lever in the weakest prediction and as a new model in the realistic assumption and the prediction appears to be in favor of modern new entertainment industry.  
But before presenting this model, it is necessary to recognize the Indonesian society, as ling as the features and elements of the social, cultural and psychological elements of the Indonesian society are not recognized, we can never propose an appropriate model for the country.
Indonesian society is engaged in a paradox between secular modernism and religious traditionalism. Government, economic enterprises and the Media often behave based on non-religious modernism. For example, the government does not try to provide an appropriate education of Islam to the new generation through the education system. Economic enterprises and service companies usually hire women who have no Islamic appearance. Many Indonesian films contain sexual content which are often made by Indian. However, Islam is considered as the spirit of Indonesia and even the younger generation. The reason for this is that the Indonesian society is strongly traditionalist and the Islamic thought (or religion) is mixed and integrated in the traditions of this country. Integration of a religion with the traditions of the society lead to the increasing influence of that religion and its sustainability. 
So as long as the desire for traditionalism is alive, every thought that are integrated with it will also survives. There is exist a sample like the Indonesian one in Somalia, where Islam is mixed with traditions so that it is impossible to clean and separate the Islamic doctrine from customs which are rooted in the traditions of Somalia.
Thus, the only cultural model can fulfill the cultural demands of the society in Indonesia which has been created and provided considering the parameter of religious traditionalism. But as the recognition of the Indonesian people, especially the younger generation in this country is enough, providing such a model would not be so difficult.
Indonesian people and especially the young generation have been exposed to the undeniable fact “lifestyle changes” in spite of traditionalism, and this means discovering new capacities for having or experiencing modern life in Indonesia. So the people of Indonesia are asking for a cultural model that allows them to experience tradition-modern life with parameters that they have accepted and not all the dimensions of cultural modernism; the criterion such as, adherence to religious worship, the sanctity of virginity before marriage, emphasis on the family unit in the society and freedom of youth in communicating with the opposite sex.
It should also be noted that the silence of Indonesian society against the entertainment industry of the country that opposes religious tradition of Indonesian society does not mean as accepting patterns by the Indonesian people. Indonesian society does not have an aggressive spirit and is not so revolutionary, therefore it becomes silent and does not fight towards patterns that it does not accept.
For example: majority of Indonesian including the young generation of the country have a positive view towards the country's former dictator, Suharto. One who gained power through a coup and committed military aggression and crimes in Timor-Leste. The reason which is often stated about him is that of right economic policies which were adopted at his time. 
As a result, the group which can implement such a cultural model in Indonesia will surely confront accepting public opinion and it provides them the opportunity to obtain apart of the cultural balancing of powers in Islamic world by creating a new cultural model.

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Ukraine: The Energy’s Cards

Ukraine and Russia will soon enter negotiations about the sale of Russian gas but the difference in energy negotiations with the last time is that Kiev is able to undertake the Civil War and at the same time Moscow was not able to be acquitted from the charge of supporting the militants of East Ukraine and this means that the crisis of East Ukraine has become a winner card for Kiev, whereas in the last period, this crisis was considered as a victory for Moscow. But Kiev can be benefited by this card when Washington and its allies try to suppress Moscow in negotiations through considering failure factors of Moscow from vindicating the support of pro-Russians in East of Ukraine and victories of the president of Ukraine. It should be noted that Gazprom is the last trump card of Kremlin to change the game in favor of the Moscow, therefor; if West fails to apply pressure on Moscow, Russia will then be able to use Gazprom as a trump card.  
Ultimately, of course, putting the card of East Ukraine crisis on energy negotiations would be able to persuade Kremlin to make realistic decisions based on realism.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

ISIS: Executive of the Blood Oil Theory

ISIS's power derived from its vast financial resources and financing channels that it has achieved. So as long as funding continues, terrorist activities of ISIS will continue. Therefore, it can be argued that the battle against ISIS is the war against resources. In such a battle we can only win if we eliminate the financing channels.
Undoubtedly, it is illusory to imagine that financial channels can be destroyed directly and straight but it is necessary to identify the target groups that are attempting to finance ISIS and finally disappointing them in achieving their goals, cause the end of financing ISIS. Certainly, obtaining cheap oil is one of the great hopes of groups that are supporting ISIS today. Thus, the ISIS is defeated in its mission to gain control of oil and providing cheap oil, and that failure becomes inevitable, then we can hope that ISIS was seen as a burnt game and financial support of these groups must be cut. 
One of the ways through which one can carry to stop ISIS from its mission, is the same action that French foreign minister has done recently; he recently announced that ISIS sell Iraqi oil to Syria. There is no doubt that groups which are supporting ISIS, try to maintain their credit despite their desire to achieve cheap oil, in other words, in the realm of politics and business, protecting and enhance the credibility and reputation will always take precedence over other goals, such as power and wealth. Therefore, to obtain documents and information undeniable to pressure the groups that are supporting ISIS will be a practical soft weapon against the hard war. 

Monday, July 7, 2014

Asia as the Opportunity for Delhi and India as the Opportunity for Washington

Political and strategic behaviors of the new leadership of India in the political arena, represents the high political expectations of Delhi. There is no doubt that India is facing two options. The first option which is in favor of the political nature and status of India, is raising the level of competition with China and implementing a new competitive dialogue to explore and achieve new goals and opportunities in Asia and the world. The second option is to break the political taboos in India and starting a new season with removing tensions in its relations with China and Pakistan.
Moscow soon noticed the changes in New Delhi and therefore tries to play with the Pakistan's card including signing a recent contract with this country on the energy and omitting the sanction on military sales to Islamabad tries to prevent the changes in Delhi's policies. 
An important point is that Delhi would not be able to select the mentioned first option without the support of Washington.
India will definitely have enough potential to be able to replace China in the Asia and maybe the global arena in the future. But what is possible to make the Hindi potential attractive, is the relatively hostile competition between India and China. So the increase of this competition in Asia will lead Delhi to change as the balance wheel of Asia. Undoubtedly, the balance wheel theory, the aim of which is to distribute of power in a way that prevents a country from being a superpower and can be found as a means to curb the growing power of Beijing in Asia.
But what should be noted is that the relationship between Pakistan and India should not be worse than what it is, because the increased competition between Pakistan and India will increase the costs in Delhi and this reduces their ability to compete with China, therefore there is no doubt that the winner of a hostile rivalry between India and Pakistan would definitely be Beijing.

Saturday, July 5, 2014

Syria and the Rise of a New Order in the Middle East

The Best Middle east order pattern could be implemented and began by with the fall of Assad's regime. Although this did not happen, but this does not mean that other routes to enter a new Middle East and to modify the order dominating would be inaccessible and impossible.
Now with regard to Assad's desire to perpetuate his kingship in Syria on the one hand and the confrontation of Syria with issues such as severe international sanctions, economic damage, strained relations with the region and the recognition of the Syrian opposition on the other hand, provides the creation of a new opportunity to change the order in Syria for the international community.
There is no doubt that Bashar al-Assad is forced to get rid of at least the pressure of sanctions, political isolation and the opposition which he has recognized to return its previous position.Thus it can be said that today's Syria is in the same status that Vietnam was in after the war ended and this means a great opportunity for Washington to be able to lead Damascus the way it likes through playing the pressure cards.  
Thus, we can predict that as of today there is nothing but the name of socialism in Vietnam, in the future Syria there would only be a name of Bashar al-Assad and his regime, whereas the general policy has changed.
Islamic Republic of Iran and Hezbollah are considered as the effective players in the order of Middle East which have a direct impact on the fate of the Israel and Palestinian are the allies of Syria belonging to Bashar al-Assad. Therefore, Assad's changing political practices in the international arena and towards issues like Israel and Palestine could definitely be replaced with radical thought as a model for its friends in Tehran and Hezbollah. But it should not be forgotten that Syria in contrast, will have the chance to receive support from the governments and various groups by selling its energy for a cheap price!!!

Friday, July 4, 2014

New Scenario of Israel - Palestine

Planned murder of three teenagers in Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu's political maneuvering, left no doubt that there is a significant correlation between the series of murders and the political behavior of the Israeli Prime Minister and one of the most important events in the history of Palestine: Fatah and Hamas Unions which are indeed for the benefit of the stances of Mahmoud Abbas, a relationship which can be then called a scenario. Obviously, the elimination of risk factors from Hamas is the result of the integration of this movement to Fatah and the adjustment of the stances of Khaled Mashaal and Ismail Haniyeh in favor of the stances of Mahmoud Abbas urged the international community. If Hamas was really intending the continuity of extremism was never joining Fatah movement in favor of Mahmoud Abbas.
Israeli Prime Minister has two options:
First, this scenario is created by some Palestinian extremists to disrupt peace talks, therefore it is expected that smart politicians avoid this scenario and entering a mined field by predicting it. Second, the scenario is written by the Cabinet (Foreign) of Israel and Netanyahu is obeying it.
It is expected that the Prime Minister of Israel, as well as other leaders of democratic governments, pursue the goal of permanent peace for Israel and as condemns extremist groups, avoid selecting options that may lead to the victory of the scenario of a few extremists.

Thursday, July 3, 2014

Iran: The Balance Diplomacy

What make a country to be a dangerous state are the events that are generated within the country. Sometimes these events are related to government decisions and sometimes the behavior of people or a part of them. Dictatorship which may be adopted as a decision made by the state and terrorism as a method which may be adopted by a part of a country, prepares the tools for the country to be hazardous in the international arena.
So what makes Iran to be considered as a threat in the international arena, and particularly in the Middle East, does not have an external factor, but whatever it is, is related to the decisions that are made in Iran. Therefore what distinguishes Iran from other countries that have a similar situation, such as North Korea and Cuba, is that in Iran various political groups have a political life including temperance-oriented groups who seek harmony with the international order; Iranian current government is an example aroused from these kinds of groups.
Thus it can be argued that the international community will witness a safe Iran as long such a state is located in the country. Therefore it is expedient that the international community adopt the balance diplomacy in order to prolong the life of this policy in Iran, so that this emerging political ideology in Iran, which is already deployed, will be stabilized and continued.
It seems that the balance diplomacy could be a good alternative to the change diplomacy. Change diplomacy is applied about countries like Venezuela and Syria, but in the case of Iran, it is convenient to use a balance diplomacy which aims at maintaining the current status, because achieving the ideal situation in Iran needs to create new political rivalries within the country; a competition that its outcome is not clear. On the other hand, Hassan Rohani’s government has attempted to avoid any competition and dealing with any Iranian extremist groups who have much power. This means that there is no required competitive condition in which there are winners and losers.
Also, in response to a group of politicians who advocate the idea of imposing political isolation to Iran, it must be said that firstly, the philosophy of imposing political isolation is to eliminate the negative effects of the international order which is generated as the result of a destructive government in the international arena; whereas by the direct and immediate support of China and Russia from governments such as Iran, North Korea and Syria, they have made the goal which this political process was following, to be ineffective and invalid. Secondly, imposing the political isolation to a country cannot suppress the desire for the survival of that government, thus, as it had happened earlier, such governments that often suffer from undemocratic political structure, guarantee their survival by giving many political and economic privileges that support their survival. For example, North Korea has to provide political and economic concessions to ensure their survival and this leads to the strength of Chinese and Russian governments and are the strength of both Moscow and Beijing is in favor of Washington's interests?!