Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Iran: An Unwanted War

To avoid an unwanted war, a comprehensive war plan must be provided. 
As it was predicted, Tehran is trying to get a war for its nation. And it is essential to acknowledge the fact that the element of the time takes side with the host country in a conflict, and therefore, "buying some time" is no option for the US government. One can take over the crown in a short time just like Iraq and Libya wars, otherwise, it would be gone for good like many other wars in Vietnam, Syria, Yemen and even the 8-year-war between Iran and Iraq. So in case of lack of victory, it is most convenient for the White House to prepare a list of secondary objectives to be able to safeguard its prestige by accomplishing them. 
And in this regard, the Iranian regime may try to develop the battlefield to areas beyond the country in order to make the U.S. switch its position from offensive to defensive. The best solution to deal with the potential threat is to launch attacks against the capital and other strategic cities that are capable to quickly become guerrilla operations centers in order to trigger a civil war at the same time. Meanwhile, the role of public diplomacy must not be neglected.

Wednesday, June 5, 2019

Tehran: A War Plan

2006 Lebanon War has always been an ideal model of war before the Islamic Republic of Iran and at the current time, the regime is trying to provoke the U.S. in order to launch such a war; a short-term conflict. 
Iranian leaders have believed that they are able to resist against a short-term war while they are hopeful that the political and economic considerations of Trump administration would restrain a long-term war. For sure, the ultimate winner of a short term-war with all of their desired parameters would not be Tehran since it would leave devastating damages for the Iranian government. Anyway, as everyone knows, Tehran has never had any long-term vision and a short-term victory is all it needs. So, a short-term war would not be a proper option. 
At these critical moments, some find no way but a long-term war and some other is seeking for a negotiation. 
 First, a tempting long-term war is not acceptable. Such a war could occupy a large portion of the U.S. military, politically and economic concentration and it definitely would be a gift to Russia and China. Bear this in mind, the U.S. involvement in the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, and consequently, the vacuum of its power in the global balance of power was one of the main causes of re-emergence of the Kremlin's threats in the world area. 
Secondly, a negotiation at this point of time is just like a lottery but it is important to keep the upper hand. 
Three leverages can be assumed against current threats of Iran including economic war, covert war and resorting the UN Security Council and International Law to form multilateral measures against Tehran, which would be more possible in the next weeks.