Thursday, August 21, 2014

Decision Pyramid of Russia and the Issue of Ukraine

West has been trying to force Moscow to change its policies on Ukraine through sanctioning Russia. However, these sanctions could not stop Russia supporting the pro-Russian militias in Ukraine. Thus, we can conclude that the only concern of the present decision pyramid in Russia as in the Cold War and the former Soviet era is to maintain their own personal interests (and not the rights and privileges of the people and Russia). That is why the strengthening of Gazprom as the most important economic center in Russia and also promoting the political position of Moscow during post Boris Yeltsin years does not led to a tangible improvement in the quality of Russians' life.
So it is convenient for the West to determine private and personal interests of the decision pyramid's members as the target of sanctions in order to realize the pressures against Moscow or in other words to make these pressures efficient.
Certainly, when the members of Russian decision pyramid separated their own interests from the interests of Russia, it is expected that the West identifies the mentioned separation to avoid wasting the resources and quickly achieve its goals.
An important point in this respect is that Moscow's dangerous decisions on Ukraine, which eventually led to the sanctions against Russia, have definitely been against the long term interests of big economical companies of Russia such as Gazprom. But despite this fact, these companies have continued their support of the Russian leadership, so doesn't this mean that these companies confirm the Kremlin's policies?!

Thursday, August 14, 2014

Islamic State and Syria-Iraq Puzzle

One of the goals that ISIS was following was to control oil in Iraq and selling it to Syria despite the fact that Syria was not the main purchaser but was supposed to play the role of a transferor. Since the Syrian armed forces were at war with ISIS, no one was suspicious of Damascus. But this game ended by the revelation of the communication channel between Syria and ISIS and consequently ISIS has lost a part of the investors and financiers. There were also other games that ISIS was considered as its player but were also burned by the decisions made by the White House.
However, Syria can still be considered as one of the main supporters of the Islamic State (ISIS). Therefore, as the Islamic State requires a new supporter, it is possible to control its militants through supporting ISIS and Damascus is certainly aware of the fact. Thus, there is a chance to send the threatening message of diverting the war from Iraq to Syria to Damascus. (Possibility means as the reality of the threat.) And through has forced Syria to stop its support from the Islamic State. 
Also, world powers even those who had previously supported the ISIS secretly, if they predict the United States as the probable winner in Iraq, they will possibly join Washington queue in Iraq. Although accepting their support means as dividing victory in Iraq, it certainly makes the violence end faster.

Monday, August 11, 2014

About the Russian Sanctions

Russian sanctions against Western countries on one hand means as Russia's readiness to continue tensions, even if by ending the crisis in Ukraine and on the other hand it can be identified as Russia's last effort to bring Western powers back to the negotiation channel with Moscow.
But two points are so important here. Firstly, Syria, or according to the British friends "Syria's permission" is not negotiable. Therefore, it is necessary for Moscow to know that what has been achieved in Syria will not be returned to Russia. Secondly, it is important to know that Russia's carrot is certainly tempting, especially on Gazprom. So if the regime of tensions tends to continue in order to realize the great aim of weakening Russia, it is needful to ensure the interests of the Western powers.
Also, powers such as the UK and Japan, both of whom are unsure about continuing tensions with Russia, before continuing conflicts with the country it is necessary to raise their true desires and expectations. Because the regime of tensions that will have a function like an order in case of continuing and will be successful if all the countries allied with Washington move in concert with each other.  
It is clear that the tensions' regime should not lead to expensive opportunities such as establishing a secret channel with Russia for friends of Washington; otherwise, the regime of tensions would fail in achieving its primary goal.

Saturday, August 9, 2014

The Missing Piece: ‘The Winner is Loser’

As was mentioned earlier, the aim of the Israel-Gaza war was to vivify the risk element in Hamas and as the result of releasing the potential extremism of the movement. A goal which could prevent Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, in case of realization.
Therefore it can be guessed that the ending point of the battle must take place as soon as the revival of Hamas' extremism. Because ending the war at this point of time has meant as the encouragement of Hamas to continue extremism. But as it was seen, war crossed the red line of time and eventually Hamas became so weak that it can be predicted that it will continue to cooperate with the Palestinian National Authority. This collaboration is probably an essential requirement for the survival of Hamas. Therefore, the public opinion is not in favor of Israel and this will increase the bargaining power of the Palestinian National Authority in peace talks.
The most important missing piece of the game is "the winner is loser". Therefore, Netanyahu's inability to control the game, whether as the result of the wrong advice to him or the result of Netanyahu's fears from the loss of his political credibility, would not cause any changes in the outcome of the war anymore.  
But the purpose of publishing this paper is firstly to reveal the outcome of this war and secondly to implicitly compare the "Snowden" game with the "Israel-Gaza war”. In “Snowden”, CIA agrees on taking the role of accuser and here the credibility of the system is reduced as a result of the implementation of the game, but Netanyahu...

Thursday, August 7, 2014

How Did the 68 Movement Fail?

Before we discuss about the failure of the 68 movement, it is necessary to investigate some points to the importance of this study:
First, identifying the threatening element of this movement may facilitate identifying similar movements in the future. Secondly, the pattern used to inflict failure to this movement is still practical.

The worldwide protest of 1968 was formed based on the idea of opposing the existing order of that time. But opposing the existing order does not label any threats or danger on this movement because at that point of time, the 'free love' movement which was approved by the mass media has been against the society order of the time. The threatening element that was in the global movement of 1968 was opposing the purposes of the order of the time (and not only opposing the ruling order.)
What could stand against the 68 movement and could finally impose failure to this movement is first predicting the formation of this movement. The second one has been a realistic prediction of power and the ability of this movement, and the other is the awareness of the fact that the present order cannot compete or fight the new order model of the 68 movement.
All three of these predictions were right. The 68 movement was so powerful to eliminate its current order. Post modernism in the cultural arena, which means a period in which the cultural pattern of "modernism" is shelved but no new model, that includes certain rules and standards is substituted, started at the same time.
Thus, cultural and social decision-makers of that time have supported the idea of forming parallel movements with the 68 movement rather than supporting and defending the ruling order. Thus, the movements such as 'free love' found new supporters; the movement that despite its opposing against public order was not against its goals.
The most important feature of the 68 movement that led to attracting support for the movement was the slogan to oppose the ruling order. Thus, the parallel movements with the 68 movement by taking same slogan could grab the most important and attractive element of the 68 movement and finally win in the competition against it.
Finally it can be concluded that the pattern of use of the "parallel" theory or movements to eliminate any theory or movement that its emergence is unacceptable is practical.

Monday, August 4, 2014

The Iceberg War

Those who only rely on the archived information identify the beginning of a new conflict between Russia and the United States to be November 2013 but the fact is that the fall of the Soviet Union did not cause any radical change in Moscow's foreign policy and this means that the existence of the dispute had never gone, but has only been frozen for a short time. 
What ended the period of frozen conflict has certainly been Russia's extensive intelligence espionage against the United States. The espionage happened before the Ukraine's crisis and has certainly been the most disturbing signal that has been sent by Russia to the United States since three decades ago. Although the extent of this espionage was only limited to the United States of America and Microsoft operating systems, the depth and breadth of this intelligence was such that has not only deeply concerned Washington but also the European powers.
Certainly, as long as Moscow does not deter from pursuing its current and traditional global policies, the only thing that can guarantee the irrevocability of Russia to a dangerous status is that of undermining Moscow. But we cannot deny the fact that there is not the capacity for a long Cold War against the Russians. Therefore, a covert war against the Russian power bases that can be called the 'Iceberg War' because nine-tenths of the icebergs are under water and only one-tenth of them are visible can be a good alternative, and an always-available possibility.