Wednesday, April 18, 2018

North Korea and Chinese Hegemony

There is no doubt that Pyongyang is dancing for Beijing; moreover, there is a significant difference between Moscow's perspective toward hegemony and the ones of Chinese government. Since there is conflict of interest between the Washington DC and Beijing in the Asia and Southeast Asia, finding the covert purpose of China in seeking peace over North Korean issue is in question. 
The main question that should be answered is: What will be the desired plan or order of China after the possible settlement of North Korean case? 
It seems that the new story or second phase will begin by economy. "Fear" or maybe "threat", are the key elements that keep the current order in the region. But after disappearing of the threat and lifting of sanctions on North Korea, the economic ties among states are the sole permanent parameter that will shape the new balance of power in the Asia. 
Penetrating the economic and cultural structures of North Korea would be more important than deactivation of its nuclear and military programs. Western corporations and South Korean entertainment market can play their parts in this regard.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Iran: The Control

There is no political "Big Bang" to define the existence of international order. 
The main objective of appearance of Iran's nuclear case and then the nuclear deal has been the key world of "control". It is evident that Iranian nuclear program has been always a pretext. Tehran is a good player that plays for a bad side, which makes it a de facto threat but it might also be considered a potential opportunity in long-term. 
A sudden and total withdrawal of the nuclear deal by the U.S. can drive everything in this regard out of control, which is against the primary goal and even the true will of the White House. It cannot be denied that the current nuclear deal could not fulfill the mentioned demand and purpose, but it can be used as the board of a game. 
Unlike a big explosion, an engineered explosion can guide the subject and take any side effects under the control. If the simple purpose are correcting and guiding the reactions of Tehran, the Washington should gradually withdraw the deal, whereas it supports the action by carrot and stick. In fact, partial withdrawal of the nuclear deal would performs as a game that should be implemented by the means of rewards and punishments in order to finally break the resistance of the counter side.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Modern Arabia and Neo Middle East

Emergence of new elements in the Middle East can lead one to this notion that the result of the Syrian civil war will no more leave any significant effect on the balance of power in the region. 
If Saudis seek to buy some times and distract the public opinion from ongoing military failures in the abroad through reforms, it should be argued that the possible end of wars on Yemen and Syria, will not considered establishment of an steady security in the Middle East and the chance of starting a new conflict will not be removed. But if Riyadh intends to have an influence on the regional order by initiating the domestic reforms, it can be predicted that first, the objective of new Middle East will not be beyond the reach, and secondly, "militarism" will lose its position as the main succeeding factor in the region. 
Nevertheless, the actions of active actors in the Syria can transfer signals that should be closely monitored. The behavior of Turkey that does not respect to any specific order and display an unstable stance toward its neighbors should be properly addressed and responded.

Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Post-Globalization Economies

Dependency is a known weakness. 
Economic globalization is as harmful as addiction to oil, in particular for major powers. 
The global economic ties can vanish the leading position of the sates due to deep dependency on their economic and commercial relations with rivals. Keep in mind, the basic leverage of the U.S. in the Cold War era against the Soviet, which gave the upper hand to the Washington in this regard, was not the NATO, but absence of effective economic ties with Eastern Bloc. 
Both the U.S. and Europe need to establish an alternative to the current economic world order, in order to reduce their economic dependency on China, Russia and emerging powers including India and Brazil, to make them immune against these world political players. 
At the end, the political and economic position of the West is good enough to lead the world, but it cannot be fully achieved until they do not release themselves from economic bonds of globalization.

Wednesday, February 21, 2018

North Korea: A Different Threat

It is not hard to know yourself; staying at your own position is matter. 
China and Russia are two main actors of the world and whereas the term "new world order" was initiated by the U.S. but Washington DC is not the player that is going to take over the globalization. War on Afghanistan and Iraq were the best post-Cold War gift to Moscow in order to get a recovery. And now, the White House is surrounded by small and unnecessary issues including North Korea. 
Although paranoid politics is not a wise approach but finding the climate change and subsequently, the Paris Agreement as Chinese hoax and dismissing the very Pyongyang play, is not politics anymore. As the North Korea case is in the question, China is enabled to benefits from the Korean conflict. 
Neutralizing the North Korean card is the best move in favor of constant security and against Beijing. At this point of time, the White House should concentrate on the world order, globalization, the current major and emerging actors such as India and Brazil.

Wednesday, February 7, 2018

Climate Guideline

Searching for covert functions of things is an art of politics. Climate change is an "urgent threat" to humanity. And of course it has been considered a concern for all. So first of all, one should address the political and legal issues in respect with the Paris Agreement. 
Given the fact, that the most greenhouse gases are emitted by the United States and China, it can be claimed, the idea that promoted a global agreement such as Kyoto Protocol and Paris Agreement as a solution has been incompatible. Although, the climate change is a hazard for all around the world, but just like a possible nuclear war in the Cold War era, the problem can only be settled by the states that are roughly responsible in this regard. Apart from a possible mutual agreements between U.S. and China, the EU as an active player can close separate financial and commercial contracts with Washington DC and Beijing, which include some climate conditions and obligations. 
Moreover, confronting the climate change can produce its own life style for the youth who want to be activist, intellectual and different at the same time. Without a doubt, it contains anti-consumerism thought but reversely, it itself, strengthen the green tech markets and stuff like that. It might be useful later. Therefore, the system must make it into a brand.

Wednesday, January 24, 2018

Tehran and Thai Role Model

The recent Iranian widespread protest has revealed the weaknesses of the government. The body of Iran's army is going to be vanished from within; let alone the soldiers. It can also be learned from the mass demonstration that only a spark is enough to light all candles.
These materials can simplify the agenda toward Iran: investing on useful persons and eliminating genuine threats in the army. In fact, constant removal of the threats poses as a shield in this regard. It seems that 2014 Thai revolutionary coup can be a proper model for Iran.