Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Iran: "What is to be done?"

Political and social instability in a country could be considered an advantage for those who are seeking for change. 
Public discontent and instability are like raw materials, which have no effects without a manipulation through a political factory. Keep in mind, the success of a colour revolution, or a coup like 2013 Egypt's General Sisi coup, both rely on the very two factors. 
Today, Tehran suffers from such a disease. But this situation cannot last as an opportunity for good. The wave of public discontent will eventually turned into the feeling of frustrated that would lead to social collapse and chaos; The situations of Cuba and Venezuela, for instance. 
Therefore, an accurate planning for launching a revolution or coup Iran can make the idea “regime change” possible.

Wednesday, May 30, 2018

Israel-Palestine: "Peace Against Enemies"

Although the Middle East has opened a widespread opportunities for the U.S. but the recent rapid developments in the arena of international relations and technology have raised the necessity for the Washington D.C. to gradually decrease its focus on the region and instead, strongly address the growing issues of Russia, China and new order in the east Asia. Therefore, the Palestine issue as the first and the most significant problem of the Middle East must be resolved. 
Definitely, settlement of the issue would be in favor of all sides including Israel and the major Arab states. Without a doubt, a permanent peace agreement between Tel Aviv and Ramallah could be also considered a geostrategic attack on Tehran. The predictable results of such a deal can put an end to the diplomatic isolation of Israel in the region and change the current balance of power against the Islamic Republic. 
According to historical experience, economic sanctions cannot singly realize a specific objective but also might provoke the rogue state to aggressive reactions. Thus, the Washington D.C. should target  geostrategic interests of Tehran in order to strengthen the functions of the recent sanctions.

Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Russian Mafia and the U.S.

The Russian mafia is a covert wing of the Russian intelligence but there is overt link between them. The mafia launches Russian agencies plots including money laundering, murder, kidnapping. According to the international law, Moscow is responsible for the mob's felonies. 
The Russian mafia may be considered a “mother mafia” based on its functions: It itself creates or sponsors other mob groups or gangs, which have been destroyed by the system through the times. And now, it is time to eliminate the US branch of the Russian mafia. 
It is convenient for the mafia to respect to the system’s rights and interests if they care about their European affairs. And also, the system is ready to expand the war against Moscow’s interests in the Latin America and Europe if it supports the mafia in the US.

Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Internal Security: Third Way

"…He will baptize you with the Holy Spirit and with fire." (Matthew 3:11) 
Without a doubt, the manner of the "mad king" in dealing with his enemies could be a fantasy of many, but the fear of its predictable consequences has made it into a role model for only "mad men". Therefore, eliminating the most dangerous enemies and frightening or threatening the other ones has been the only smart method in this regard. Nevertheless, it is evident that it cannot be called the "sheer security" because there are several kings outside; Russian intelligence and mob groups, for instance. And a threat will not be kept in quarantine for a long time. Accordingly, it should be eliminated. 
If a group or set has been identified as a threat, it must be fully eliminated including members and related persons to them. Since a rapid purge might bring about internal disorder and involve the system into an unnecessary war, the process of purge must take place through the time, which might take months and years depending to the case. 
And given the fact that the process of purge takes time, it should be backed and covered by "fear". There is golden formula for everything such a coffee. But the mentioned formula of every one might be different than the others; fear is not something typical; reputation, health, family are just some example that can be played by fear weapon. For now, the system's lab must work on pills or materials in order to disable specific the human body's organs or functions like eyesight, etc. 
The family members and friends of victims will be immune, if they are unaware about or against the criminal activities of them. Also, all the victims must be respected as they are human being, which is the right of everyone; moreover, the human rights have a sacred position in the system.

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

North Korea and Chinese Hegemony

There is no doubt that Pyongyang is dancing for Beijing; moreover, there is a significant difference between Moscow's perspective toward hegemony and the ones of Chinese government. Since there is conflict of interest between the Washington DC and Beijing in the Asia and Southeast Asia, finding the covert purpose of China in seeking peace over North Korean issue is in question. 
The main question that should be answered is: What will be the desired plan or order of China after the possible settlement of North Korean case? 
It seems that the new story or second phase will begin by economy. "Fear" or maybe "threat", are the key elements that keep the current order in the region. But after disappearing of the threat and lifting of sanctions on North Korea, the economic ties among states are the sole permanent parameter that will shape the new balance of power in the Asia. 
Penetrating the economic and cultural structures of North Korea would be more important than deactivation of its nuclear and military programs. Western corporations and South Korean entertainment market can play their parts in this regard.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Iran: The Control

There is no political "Big Bang" to define the existence of international order. 
The main objective of appearance of Iran's nuclear case and then the nuclear deal has been the key world of "control". It is evident that Iranian nuclear program has been always a pretext. Tehran is a good player that plays for a bad side, which makes it a de facto threat but it might also be considered a potential opportunity in long-term. 
A sudden and total withdrawal of the nuclear deal by the U.S. can drive everything in this regard out of control, which is against the primary goal and even the true will of the White House. It cannot be denied that the current nuclear deal could not fulfill the mentioned demand and purpose, but it can be used as the board of a game. 
Unlike a big explosion, an engineered explosion can guide the subject and take any side effects under the control. If the simple purpose are correcting and guiding the reactions of Tehran, the Washington should gradually withdraw the deal, whereas it supports the action by carrot and stick. In fact, partial withdrawal of the nuclear deal would performs as a game that should be implemented by the means of rewards and punishments in order to finally break the resistance of the counter side.

Wednesday, March 21, 2018

Modern Arabia and Neo Middle East

Emergence of new elements in the Middle East can lead one to this notion that the result of the Syrian civil war will no more leave any significant effect on the balance of power in the region. 
If Saudis seek to buy some times and distract the public opinion from ongoing military failures in the abroad through reforms, it should be argued that the possible end of wars on Yemen and Syria, will not considered establishment of an steady security in the Middle East and the chance of starting a new conflict will not be removed. But if Riyadh intends to have an influence on the regional order by initiating the domestic reforms, it can be predicted that first, the objective of new Middle East will not be beyond the reach, and secondly, "militarism" will lose its position as the main succeeding factor in the region. 
Nevertheless, the actions of active actors in the Syria can transfer signals that should be closely monitored. The behavior of Turkey that does not respect to any specific order and display an unstable stance toward its neighbors should be properly addressed and responded.