Tuesday, September 19, 2017

In Pursuit of Side Effects

All effective elements will be allowed when impact itself is the goal. 
It is evident that situation of the Middle East is not in accordance with parameters of regional and global security; a balance of power is going to be established, which might only ensure the political security of states in the region but can undermine the human rights.
It is true that the region has no more capacity for conflicts and in this regard, one can firmly claim that Iraq owes its current security and sovereignty to the system. But the Middle East needs emergence of a new political element and capacity to make the current balance of power meet challenges. The favorite Kurdish plan for holding an independence referendum is just like allowing a big party to enter the political competition; certainly confronting the new concerns requires taking new measures and actions.
Needless to say, according to ICJ advisory opinion on Kosovo's declaration of independence, which has been considered a precedent, the possible independence of Erbil does not violate the international law even if it is against a domestic court order or constitution. And it can inspire all ethnic and religious minorities in the Middle East. 
The system supports all actions that highlight the position of ethnic and religious minorities all around the world.

Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Taliban: Peace in Return for Human Rights

Without security, democratic and human rights values would be meaningless. 
Perhaps, some are willing to see a rapid and widespread human rights in Afghanistan. Although Afghanistan is able to overcome Taliban but unfortunately it is not what Afghans want to. A small but continuous damage can break any resistance. This has been the technique of Taliban since US occupation of Afghanistan. And today, Afghans suffer from lack of a psychological readiness for a big and difficult resistance against Taliban. 
Therefore, a compromise between Kabul and Taliban is a necessity. Taliban could not only be recognized as a political party. Their leaders are smart enough to understand how far away people's perspective are from Talibanism. Taliban wants to have a considerable share of political power, which cannot be achieved through a democratic system and ballot. 
The system must try to help Afghanistan with a realistic deal, though it might sacrifice human rights in the country for upcoming years.

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

North Korea: Sleeping Samurai

Maintaining the balance of power requires active cooperation of global powers over the containing or distributing power. 
Japan is one of few world powers that lost the ability for active cooperation in forming global balance of power because of facing China and especially North Korea challenges. Keep this logic in mind, the winner cart of the U.S. in the World War II and the Cold War, was the distance from the scene, which was Europe. It is evident that as long as Japanese are concerned about the regional threat of North Korea, they have to impose some considerations to their international relations in favor of China, Russia and the US, which leads to a semi-passive foreign policy from Tokyo. In spite of that, the position of Japan toward Ukraine Crisis in 2014 was decisive. 
The winner of managing the North Korean crisis have been Russia and China since it made them able to use North Korea as a leverage for restraining Japan. So the crisis must be settled. 
In this respect, as the first step the system must initiate two tripartite and quartet talks: 3-party talks between Tokyo, Seoul and the System and 4-party talks including Pyongyang.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Engineering a Revolution

People consciousness and mass mobilization is required for forming a revolution. 
Che Guevara could not achieve his goal in Bolivia because he only intended to design a successful guerrilla warfare. In contrast, defeating the Hitler's Beer Hall Putsch, Castro's Moncada Barracks and 1963 demonstration in Iran, though were not engineered but played leading roles in the revolutions. For starting a revolution, one should capture people's hearts. 
A magnificent defeat like the sample of Iranian Green Movement or a beautiful death such as the moment of Che’s execution, which motivate people awaking, are just prerequisite of a revolution. Indeed, the elements of time and nature are the greatest architects in politics. 
Today's Iran is ready for a revolution. But it is only an option as long as the game is not out of control. The system must break it to make the revolution a necessity, not a choice.

Tuesday, July 4, 2017

Closed Clinic

A victory without achievement is a defeat. 
While Ukraine Revolution could not bring any achievement for the West except losing the Black Sea to Russia, many are still trying to be the winner of futile wars of Syria and Yemen. 
It is possible to help Iranian left-wing by overcoming conservatives. But the main concern is whether it would lead to deep evolution of the human rights in the country. The ultimate objective is domination of human rights over the world, not merely winning leftists or socialists. Accordingly, the system will watching closely decisions and movements of Iranian left-wing and Rouhani administration. There is no doubt if they do not fully accomplish their human rights obligations and promises, the system must review its Tehran policy. 
Every project needs another plan to be implemented: the main project, which must be is covert and its shadow that plays a misleading role. 
The system must always have schemes for distracting Washington and London in order to comfortably realize its projects in the Middle East. And the most convenient way, is destabilizing their favorite order in all around the world including by cyber-attacks. But while both Washington and London were seeking to achieve a share of power in Saudi Arabia, Israel could take-over Riyadh by presenting a surrogate for Mohammad Bin Salman. Although the current surrogate prince has blood relationship with the dead prince but he is younger than Mohammad and also graduated in management in a Saudi university. No need to say, the surrogate must be accountable to Tel Aviv. And now, the system must barricade the possibility of the diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel in order to disrupt their game.

Tuesday, June 20, 2017

Affirmative Interference: Tehran

Henry Kissinger has believed that carrot and stick should be used at the same time to be effective. 
As congress passed sanctions against Iran’s conservative individuals and organization, the system must facilitate political, economic and cultural investments in Iran in a tangible way, in order to simultaneously weaken the position of hardliners and strengthen the bargaining power of Rouhani against domestic conservatives over the subjects of human rights and regional issues. Although, John Kerry has sought to transfer a false message to Iran about the sanctions in order to back the stance of the Iranian right wing. 
Also nowadays security is a strategic commodity. Thus, there is no blame on Iranian intelligence for letting terrorists to implement their plan in order to have the upper hand over the Rouhani administration, though the intelligence were informed. Simply, it is a common practice in the politics. However, since Tehran is a strategic position, the system will try to fill this security vacuum. In this regard, based on classified information, Tehran city council is next target of terrorists, which should not be considered a winner card for conservatives anymore! 
Certainly the system intends to keep current role of Iran in the Middle East. Terrorism and Saudi Arabia are two major troubles of the region. The first one targets security and the second, is a threat to democratic movements and political independence of countries. Iran is the only power that efficiently confronts them.

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

The Big Time

Friends and allies should not be chosen from the victims. 
First of all, the system will not take a new position on Qatar before stabilization of the situation, whether reconciliation or continuation of dispute among the GCC. Although, this hostility is a significant opportunity for the system. 
There is no doubt that emergence of neo-left in the U.S., Europe and even Iran is an undeniable fact, which can be distinguished from the traditional left. Nowadays, traditional left plays in the ground of centrism, while neo-left is successor of traditional left’s former position. The approach of neo-left toward human rights can help it to improve in long-term. Thus, the newborn discourse of neo-left needs a powerful platform in order to achieve the political goals and does not have a similar fate like Greens. 
Although the right to an adequate standard of living is a principle of basic human rights and elimination of poverty is essential but according to historical experiences, low-income classes cannot be considered a reliable support for the left-wing and socialists. In the fascism era, many of so-called "proletarians" left alone socialists to be sacrificed. Nothing has changed, in the U.S., the blue collars backed Trump for presidency and not a socialist candidate like Bernie Sanders. The middle class, was the main supporter of Sanders and if he considered human rights at his platform, he would certainly gain more success in the election. 
Therefore, the issues of middle class and human rights must be on the agenda for the neo-left. In addition, be sure that supporting low-income class would not lead to capturing their votes. For obtaining low-income classes votes, one should only require someone to be able to contact them in a friendly by a non-political, non-academic and even non-revolutionary tone. Keep in mind, although low-income classes have the right to vote but it is not translated into their socialization and thus, they provide their own sub-culture against popular culture. And also, there is a grave difference between their needs and demands. Improving the economic level of their life must be their basic need but their main demand is to be practically recognized. The first step in the recognition is speaking with their specific literature while educated politicians has no tendency to it or find it as a sign of populism. But in fact, one should be a prophet at first to become a politician because it is a requirement to contact everybody just like their own social language, culture and even the level and capacity of knowledge. It is the true meaning of recognition of others including minorities, sub-cultures etc. Sometime a leader must take advantage of all his social and scientific position to be a nation's advocate and sometime he should forget all of them to achieve the same.
Thus, it is more convenient for the neo-left to focuses on economic and social concerns of middle class including jobs and human rights.