Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Tehran Visit Notes

Tehran, the city that has presented an unpredictable life to its citizens which its social construction has impelled people to have a surreal life, is the place for appearing new Middle East.
One of the most important topics in Iran is the file of 2009 presidential election, the file which is necessary to be reconsidered on the base of new available facts. In the election unlike the statements and claims of opponents to its result, there was not any main fraud. Putting the scenario "wide spread fraud in election" believable in the public opinion is not an amazing thing. Certainly, putting this scenario in the public opinion had followed the same scheme that choosing a 40 years old actress as the most beautiful woman in the year had followed it!  
The theory of Iranian "Green" movement had been written as the same "Hundred Flowers" movement of China, filtering prominent reformist politicians and imposing isolation to moderate factions. But the "Green" movement theory was certainly more complex than "Hundred Flowers" movement and already can be known as the most evolved version of the inverse engineering. 
Since, some groups support radicalisms and extremism in Middle East, it is necessary to support the powers following the moderate attitudes in order to achieving desired Middle East.
In the end, "R" is introduced as representative of the class related to Israel. "Conversation and not interposition" would be the basic principle of this channel.

Sunday, October 26, 2014

The Private Intelligence Service: A report

A new organization has recently emerged that has identified itself with the attributes of: "autonomous and out of the system". This organization set the "research" as its goal. Needless to say, access to the classified information is equal to the term "research".
Obviously, the mentioned organization is derived from giant American companies and corporations class and follows the same old and known targets in a new structure and form.
Access to classified information and selling them to different countries and groups is one of the organization's most predictable threats to the system. So even if we assume that the organization will never be developed, it is still considered as the "snake in the grass". 
It is necessary to investigate complete information about the mentioned organization as soon as possible in order to establish the "secure order". Unlocking the paragraph titled "violation" is also permitted and allowed against all the members and those who are known as element of "threat". Meanwhile the repeal of enjoy the insurance option is essential for all of those who could not prove their good faith. And taking the most important (/expensive) "tourisms" by more accurate numbers of the class is useful in order to ensure more. 
But, according to the current custom, a deadline is given to the organization to end its illegal activities.

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Iran: The Green Light to the Change

According to one of recently received report, Iran has purchased and imported a large amount of too expensive pesticides from China and Russia. These are supposed to be used for agricultural purposes but as they are extremely dangerous and too destructive for the environment, it is possible for Iran to have some purposes and intents other than agricultural ones in its mind for these materials.
Since a significant portion of effective power in Iran is still in hands of untrustable parties, it is necessary to change power balance in Iran in order to be able to settle a desirable and acceptable balance of power throughout the world. 
New model of Iranian petroleum industry which has been registered by the Iranian ministry of petroleum will create an opportunity to make such a change. This model has three important features as follows:
First, to allow foreign investors to invest widely on Iranian upstream petroleum industry.
Second, long span of new contracts (15 to 20 years).
Third, to match amount of payments with the amount of profit that investors will receive.
Since Iran's economy is dependent on its petroleum industry, it can be showed that to take control of Iranian petroleum industry could be interpreted as to dominate over economy leverage of this country. From this point on, it will not be a difficult task to settle the desired balance of power in Iran.
Considering the fact that Iran has chosen London and not a city in Russia or China (or any other eastern country) to introduce this new model, it must be admitted that this tactical policy can be accounted as a green light from Tehran to the “change”.

Monday, October 20, 2014

Russia: The Rise of Economic Opportunity behind the Appearance of Sanctions

The functionality of sanctions against Russia has found to be different from that of the same sanctions against Iran. Western sanction against Russia not only caused a reduction in the Moscow's power and its capabilities, but also has made a new business opportunity.  
The Russian economic crisis caused by regime of sanctions resulted in outflow of Russian capitals and Russian investors out of Russia's territory. This situation can be counted as an economic opportunity for the European economic powers and the U.S. as well. But this situation can only be viewed as an opportunity if and only if these two policies applied at the same time: first, to allow Russian investors to invest in these countries while securing their capitals, and second, to set some investment limitations for Russian investors. Those states who apply such policies can enjoy benefits of inflow of such foreign investments while avoiding risks involved in theme.  
As an example: Russia has never allowed western investors to invest widely on Russian upstream petroleum industry.This policy is applied to prevent foreigners to dominate in Russian economy (or Russian economic leverages).
Therefore, western powers are able to create new opportunities for their own states via modification of bureaucracy of sanctions regime system.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Crimea, Turkey, Moscow: The report of a breach

Following the Moscow's attempt to attach Crimea to the territory of Russia, western countries have approved some sanctions against Russia. The western countries' action caused to place a part of their political credibility on a gambling table, entitled "Crimea". So, when no change is happened in the Crimea's situation, cancellation of these sanctions regime will be considered as a political failure for western countries. This failure not only will make Kremlin more assertive in pursuing its global policies, but also will make some allies of Russia that receded from the country due to these sanctions, closer to Russia; because these sanctions have damaged not only the political credibility of Moscow, but also the political credibility of Moscow's allies. 
Before continuation of the tensions, it had been declared that secret cooperation with Russia is invalid. But according to the received reports, (report-1,) some Europeans want to give away Crimea's affair to Moscow in exchange for creating disturbance and damaging Turkey via Russia. 
First, this behavior is considered as a violation and it will bring proper responses.
Secondly, submitting required information to Turkey is known as a possible option.
Thirdly, the order in Turkey as the only country that attempts to provide a moderate model about political Islam is required; and such a pattern in the present era is as important as the ideology of social democracy during Cold War.

Monday, October 13, 2014

ISIS: The Separation

Some believe that ISIS was given a time. The basis for such a belief and claim is that the threat of ISIS terrorists was taken seriously only when the militants of this group occupied Mosul in Iraq.
In response to this claim, it should be said that until the past one year and a half ISIS has just been a terrorist group like any other terrorist groups (which was exclusively indirectly supported by Damascus in the Syrian Civil War).
Therefore, ISIS's power did not increase gradually but was suddenly boosted. In fact, ISIS could regain much strength when it was selected as a candidate for the project "heating of the geography" in the Middle East; a project which was directed by several groups around the world.
The Iraq war has clearly indicated that the terrorists are not fighting for victory but for the destruction. Terrorist is like someone who attempts a murder-suicide; he kills both himself and the others. So, hasty selection of military option in dealing with terrorist groups would not result in any outcome but failure. 
The clandestine strategy to destroy ISIS was based on two basis: First, to defeat the projects that ISIS was known as a major player (in order to remove the elements which was making sense of selecting ISIS for playing the game) and Second, the secret prosecution and removal of those who have been involved in the ISIS project (to eliminate external support from this group). 
These operations caused ISIS to reform an independent terrorist group, like other terrorist groups, so the design of destruction or deterrence would finally become possible. 
In addition of these, the resent message from one of Taliban branches to the ISIS contains some covert as well as overt points which are necessary to be reviewed:
There is no need to analyze overt contents, but it is important to explore the secret one.
If you concentrate on this part of the message which states to ISIS "set the competitions against each other aside", it is possible to reveal the content of the undercover message. The word "competition" has a negative meaning in this context and refers to some sort of dissension among high ranked ISIS members. Therefore it can be concluded that Taliban is playing a role as a double agent who reveals ISIS' confidential information and is not a real ally for this terrorist group. So, the threat of integration of ISIS into the Taliban has been already vanished.

Sunday, October 5, 2014

Palestine: The Issue of Political Stability

The recent proposal of recognizing Palestine as a state raised by Sweden can be regarded as a wise initiative to put pressure on Israel within the Israeli-Palestinian peace process through providing an alternative option for considering peace talks. This option can be selected in the case that negotiations fail.
The most important issue currently facing the Palestinian Authorities is the issue of political stability. At this time, Hamas' relationship with the Palestinian National Authorities and Mahmoud Abbas is similar to United States-Russia relationship.
Despite the fact that, Palestinian unity government of Fatah and Hamas raised high hopes about the future of Palestine, we must claim that what is running inside the body of Palestinian politics and behind the fence of news is the nature of "dissension" among Palestinian leaders. Such a dissension would certainly ruin the current promising potentials. Considering this fact, it must be claimed if the efforts on the issue of Palestinian and its future limited to the international stage, "hope" is the optimistic element about the future of Palestine. 
The membership of one of the Palestinian groups in the community and particularly in the class can be considered as an easy and traditional prescription of treating "the issue of political stability" among the Palestinian population.  
Accepting one of the Palestinian factions makes it possible to provide political advises for Palestinian party or use international leverages if needed, through getting informed of local events of Palestine.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

The Tragedy of Wars

The fall of the two Arab dictators, Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, were both victories that were achieved as a result of the successful application of military force. But both these successes became changed into failure after a while. Although todays' political changes in Iraq has raised the hope that the United States would once again return its victory in Iraq.
But the study of these failures can help to improve and modify future strategies.
Shortly after the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, a new threat of "terrorism" threatened Iraq. The Bush administration correctly identified the threat that Sunni militias and Shia insurgents had caused in Iraq, therefore, in order to keep its victory in Iraq, the president George Bush decided to apply the military option, a costly options which could only buy time for the Bush administration, but could not solve any problem.
The unfortunate memories of the Iraq war and the frustration from the use of militarism to resolve global issues caused the act of "negligence" of Obama administration to the potential dangers that were threatening the Libyan revolution after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. The lack of identifying these threats (, the threat of the emergence of extremist militias) caused a huge waste of the potential resources from which the United States and its allies could take advantage.