The Darkest Black Sea

The winner does not buy time, but shoots the seconds to his rivals.
The Black Sea and its own great sources will play a major role for European long-term politics. But now, as a result of illegal annexation of Crimea to Russia, more parts of the sea are dominated by Moscow. As long as the issue has not been resolved, inevitably the element of time could be taken advantage of against Kremlin. 
There are three different solutions for the above problem: 
First, retaking Crimea by launching a Western campaign, which might be a main reason of backing Ukraine Euromaidan Revolution. 
Second, implementation of scorched earth strategy against Moscow, like Syria through expanding sanctions and starting riots.
Third, fighting climate change from the point of fossil fuel energy. Achieving this goal would not be possible merely by lying on green tech, since this kind of technology is not affordable and fast enough. Investments on technologies and innovation that promote green technology to a competitive level is necessary in order to make green tech attractive for both macroeconomics and political economy. 
The system must put all of its efforts on realization of the above plans. But in respect of the third solution, the oil mafia must be overcome from the outset through peaceful or easier ways, which might be violent.

Ukraine: Post-Revolution Era

Ukraine's Orange Revolution was overthrown as a result of a democratic election and such a fate threatens Ukraine's Maidan Revolution. 
Today, the economic aspirations and social welfare are of the main concerns of Ukrainian. And getting tight ties with the U.S. and EU is no more on top priority. Additionally the influence of Crimea issue and the events in the east of Ukraine on Ukrainian public opinion are undeniable as well. It should be added that citizens in the east of Ukraine will participate in the next elections, which is affecting the country's political fate determination. 
Given the circumstances, the membership of Ukraine in the European Union would not make any change in the country's political fate in order to end the dispute of the pro-Russians and pro-Europeans in the country. The Hungarian government is a good example to prove this claim. 
And according to the reports, Russia is going to assassinate a number of Ukrainian journalists who write against Moscow. Certainly the raise of public awareness about the Russian threats by mobilizing all of communication tools widely can prevent future disasters. 
There is no doubt that it is possible to rebuild the trust of people to the Moscow and pro-Russians politicians while rebuilding the Ukrainian economy is not easy and if the government fails in realization the Ukrainian economic goals, then the public trust to the pro-Europeans politicians reduces. In such circumstances the promotion of public awareness to the expansionism and un-reliability of Moscow is what can increase the government chance to win in the future elections.

About the Black Sea

An unknown element has not been yet formed in international relations of power. 
Ukrainian Orange Revolution fell as a result of the lack of Western and Eastern aid and support of Ukraine and its unsolved issue of "gas purchase". 
And on the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, separation of Abkhazia (with its inherent maritime territory over the Black Sea) and South Ossetia regions from Georgia by illegal war led by Russia is considered breach of international peace and security. And it is worth mentioning that Moscow has issued Russian citizenship for about 90 percent of residents of South Ossetia since then, according to the claim of Dmitry Medvedev. 
The non-planning revolution in Ukraine made the Crimean Peninsula which its area is more than double area of Cyprus to be separated from Ukraine. Needless to say, Crimea is not restricted to a piece of land but it involves part of the huge resources of Black Sea's energy. It is notable, the cancelation of Russia sanctions represents giving up the Crimea issue. 
Donetsk and Luhansk regions separation of Ukraine was also possible but the interference of the system prevented the implementation of this plan. Eventually, the issue of "gas purchase" was solved and the Minsk-2 agreement was also formed.

Blood for Signals of Ukraine

The new agreement of Minsk which was developed based on the needs of the Ukrainian central government causes the rebels to be frustrated. Therefore, they are trying to dictate their conditions practically to the government through shattering continually the ceasefire. But the shatter of ceasefire by rebels and loss of the control of Debaltseve city from Kiev causing concerns in the capital of Ukraine. 
It should be said in response to these concerns: 
Firstly, no time is late to do a total military attack. Undoubtedly, if the military attack against rebels is required, then it is possible through NATO all-out support. 
Secondly, if the Ukrainian side can prove its good faith in the implementation of the Minsk II Agreement, it will be able to be sure about the support of Europe and the United States. In such circumstances, i.e. when the rebels do not respect the truce agreement but Ukrainian government fulfills it then the West will be forced to make the situations more difficult for Moscow. 
So it could be concluded that, respecting to the ceasefire agreement by the Ukrainian government and also asking the peacekeepers from the UN by Kiev (which its sovereignty over the geographic territory of east Ukraine has been proved and it is informed) would be a strategic success for the country; the rebels will be force to withdraw or new sanctions will be ordained against Moscow and the Ukraine's NATO membership will be essential to European states.

Ukraine: No Way but New

An ambassador is determined for Ukraine affairs to fill the Washington and Brussels' foreign policy gaps and corruption in this respect; the class agent Philip is ambassador regarding Ukraine. Indeed Kiev has the right to be aware of classified information about the White House and the West related to Ukraine Crisis. Despite the fact, access to classified document for Kiev is not available at this point of time. 
But first of all, Ukrainian government must necessarily know that resolving the crisis in East Ukraine might cause the sanctions against Moscow to be gradually eliminated. In such circumstance, Ukrainian sovereignty over Crimea, the Black Sea and the existing resources are likely are unattainable. Considering this fact, is the Ukrainian government willing to completely resolve the disputes at this point of time or does it prefer the sanctions affect Moscow and then return to the peace process with greater bargaining strength?
It should be answered with this concept in mind that killing thousands people of Ukraine containing the western and eastern Ukrainian never change anything in Kremlin because it does not hurt Moscow. 
Ukraine Crisis has brought in damages for both Ukraine and Russia. Currently the Kiev is facing with challenges such as coal shortage. A required parameter for the future planning is to identify the capacity of the country in encountering with present challenges.
At the end it is advisable, No one is sending something entitling "NATO membership invitation" to Ukraine. No one will solve the Ukraine Crisis. A good example to prove this claim is Syrian Civil War. The Ukrainians’ ideals could be realized only by Kiev's political decisions.

Russia-Turkey: Alcohol Is Cold

The semi-strategic relations of Russia-Turkey raised criticisms and concerns in the West which have been achieved after the occurrence of the Ukraine crisis and beginning of the series of tensions between the West and Moscow. The oppositions of the ties are in two groups, as follows: 
The first one, are traditionally opposite against Ankara eastern trends; and the other one, are those critics who think that Putin regime will be able to save the Moscow hegemony through Turkey.
In response to the first critics it should be said that if an influential role in the area of international policy scenarios had been set for Ankara (such as what has been designed for Riyadh), Turkey's position was definitely constant instead of its policy being in traffic between East and West. 
And in response to the other category, NATO is identified as the main threat to Russia based on the last version of Russian military doctrine, while Turkey is a NATO member and the Ukraine westernization position has caused serious concerns for Moscow. There is no doubt that Ukraine's accession to NATO must compel Russia to alter its policies on NATO. It is clear that under such circumstances, the semi-strategic ties between Russia and Turkey would not certainly last. Because Moscow chooses its proud over its interests.

About Novorossiya

Oleg Tsaryov, the self-proclaimed speaker of "Novorossiya's" Parliament has been recently announced in an interview with Le Figaro newspaper that the separatists give up their demand based on the achievement of political independency. And they called for federal government in Ukraine with the full autonomy for the regions of Donetsk and Lugansk, instead. 
Therefore, some points about the political and legal status of Ukraine should be said necessarily.
Representatives of the separatists legally accepted in the Minsk Protocol that they do not have the required legal capacity for political independency to be claimed. Therefore, following the agreement the Russia's position changed about east of Ukraine. 
What was the last comment of Putin before this agreement? 
He supported of creating an independence country and the idea of eastern Ukraine political independency. 
But the achievement way of political independency was blocked after the Minsk Protocol. And since the Moscow was aware of the fact, then has changed its political tactic. The idea of federalism in Ukraine is supported by Kremlin for months, instead of the eastern Ukrainian independency. 
 What is the goal of Kremlin of creating federal government in Ukraine and full autonomy of the areas controlled by separatists?
The autonomy similar to that of Scotland and California (despite the fact that mentioned states have not full autonomy) enables the separatists that achieve full political independency through a legal referendum. 
Needless to say, the right to self-determination is of the basic elements of full autonomy.

Minsk Protocol: Russian "Reversal of Matter"

It is necessary to verify the West strategy on Ukraine crisis because the political and legal status of Donetsk and Lugansk regions has been changed since signing the Minsk Protocol. So: 
First, Russia is trying to legitimate the total control of separatists over the East Ukraine through "reversal of matter" (as a tactic). 
What is (still) the main matter of Ukraine crisis?
Land and territory, not only a ceasefire or peace.
What is the main problem of Ukraine crisis according to standpoint of Moscow?
Unconditional ceasefire. (It should be noted that such a ceasefire will give Moscow this opportunity to create its third victory in East Ukraine after South Ossetia and Crimea; of course a total war is a best situation to promote the idea of ceasefire in order to divert public opinion and media from the main subject to the ceasefire.)
Therefore, Ukraine needs to know Russia and the separatists want Minsk Protocol to be abolished by Kiev more than anything else. Because the agreement imposed a legal regime based on the law of treaties on the Donetsk and Lugansk areas. Under the agreement, Donetsk and Lugansk are identified as local (self) governments. This legal description determines the areas (legal) capacity and definitely the capacity do not allow Donetsk and Lugansk regions to have independence. So, the total control of separatists over the areas is invalid. Indeed, DPR and LPR representatives as well as Russian Federation representative have recognized the mentioned capacity (not more than that) to Donetsk and Lugansk and the signatory parties are bound to the agreement. 
So it is better to consider use of military force by Kiev against the militants as an effort of the country to force the separatists to implement the agreement or even known as Ukrainian armed defense from the Minsk Protocol. Thus, on the one hand armed action of government (based on a limited war) should not be considered an abolition and repeal of the protocol, but on the other hand the Kiev should not enter to a total war.  
Second, China is not in favor of Putin's regime debacle and fall, therefore China certainly will push to Moscow to end this crisis if it ensures that Ukraine crisis could cause the Putin's regime to be fallen.

The Issue of Merchants: Russia and Sanctions

In order to realize the process of the continuation of sanctions against Moscow, both Washington and Brussels require the vote of confidence from merchants and commercial companies. Therefore holding continuing meetings with them is necessary because the recent sanctions have affected short- and long-term interests of merchants and trading companies of the West.
It is obvious that each of their individual vote to continue the sanctions regime will be negative (which also includes business companies that have identified Russia as a potential business partner in their own business future) but undoubtedly, their collective vote will be positive to continue these conditions. In other words, if a large number of businessmen and heads of corporations be invited to a meeting, you can easily attract their trust and agreement to the continuation of sanctions against Moscow.
We will get more familiar with the business approach, through a question:
Why merchants or businesses companies financially support political candidates in elections?
The goal of the formation of such support from the merchants is to get the helm of "political economy" in favor of their economic interests.
In the assumed meeting, an invisible competition would be made to get a share of the helm of political economy between the invited merchants in the meeting and the loser of this competition will be the one who objects to the policies of the country. Thus, the mechanism of competition will automatically lead to the merchants' agreement with the continuation of sanctions against Russia.

Ukraine: The Crisis Diplomacy Performance

Political and military options that Russia chose in the 2008 Russo-Georgian War, provided the ability to predict the Russian choices in the Ukraine's crisis for the other parties.The two options of recognizing the result of the referendum in East Ukraine as well as the option of entering Russian forces to the territories occupied by the pro-Russian militants were available after recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk by Moscow. Both of these options were implemented on Georgia, and Russia has been able to skillfully separate Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia. But now, as the leader of the militants in East Ukraine is not calling for the secession from the territory of Ukraine, it can be concluded that Moscow has entirely lost its chance to recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk and therefore any entrance of Russian military to this area means the same as military aggression against Ukraine.
But what changed the result of the game in Ukraine has probably been the priority of the issue of Syria for Moscow. Since the Presidential elections in Syria was taking place in a close distance to the referendum in East Ukraine, the possibility of forming a deal with Russia over the Syria was create at that point of time.
The deal was simple: military branch of the opponents of Bashar al-Assad leave the city of Homs and in return Russia stops supporting the pro-Russians militants.
At first, the opponents of Bashar al-Assad left Homs and John Kerry rejected the leader of Bashar al-Assad's opponents request to send weapons to them, and then the Russian military forces withdrew from the Ukraine borders and Vladimir Putin urged the East Ukrainian separatists to delay the referendum.
But about the destiny of gambling on Syria, we must admit that the White House has been the hidden winner of the game. Lack of reaction by Damascus on the recent Israel-Gaza conflict and even the lack of Bashar al-Assad's verbal support for Gaza despite his former anti-Israel stances and despite supports of Iran and Hezbollah in the Syrian Civil War in favor of Bashar al-Assad indicate that new Syria is created.

Ukraine's Issue: Ceasefire and Political Credibility of the West

Certainly, the number of people who were in favor of the truce in Ukraine were almost equal to the number of those who were in favor of continuing the conflicts in the country. European and American supporters of continuing the conflicts were often those who wanted to continue conflicts against the Russia through continuing the disaster in Ukraine. Probably a similar reason to this logic in Russia causes the continuous supports of Moscow for the pro-Russians in East Ukraine.
However, even if we want to look at this case in a pure mechanical way we notice that there are obstacles on using the Civil War as a way to fight against Russia. And the most important barrier is Kiev. Since the West is involved in Ukraine's issue, therefore we must admit that a part of the West's political credibility is now in the possession of the decisions by Kiev. Incorrect decisions by Kiev not only will lead the failure of Ukraine but also the elimination of a part of the West's political credibility.
Kiev has certainly the chance to achieve good advantages as the result of a secret deal with Moscow and finally will bring peace to the country by giving special privileges to Donetsk and Luhansk.
Who will lose in such a deal except the West?!
But the real threat is revealed when Kiev blackmails the West. In other words, by having such an opportunity, Ukraine can decide to persuade the West to gain some especial privileges.
So, as if the West is following to keep tensions with Russia like that of Moscow which is looking for something like this, it is necessary to give no major role to Kiev, in the conflict, in order to guarantee the preservation of the political credibility of the West.

Russian Oligarchy VS Russian Oligarchy

In order to reach victory in the Ukraine's crisis, the West should prevent emotional decisions on the one hand and avoid giving political points to Russia that wants to take advantages through creating a false psychological warfare. Therefore, those allies of the United States who attend with a good faith in the disputation with Russia over the Ukraine's issue now need to strike the Achilles heel of Russia's leadership. It is clear that adopting the ineffective tactic against Moscow at this point of time is equal and equivalent to support the policies of the Kremlin.
Since the privatization in Russia that led to the emergence of the powerful class of oligarchy in the country, there has always been a conflict and competition between the members of this class. Competitions that sometimes led to the use of violence lever as well. The "Yukos" case is one of the best-known examples of these competitions. However, there are other cases that represent the conflict between the oligarchy depending to Vladimir Putin and the independent oligarchy from him (which sometimes includes the former friends of Vladimir Putin, too). 
Therefore, if Russia is turning to use the civil war as a weapon in Ukraine, the West can take up the option of a counter war against Moscow by creating a conflict within circle of the Russian oligarchy to in response to Kremlin's act. 
Regarding that today's Russian leadership is caught in the quagmire of Ukraine as Boris Yeltsin was caught before in Chechen War, and also a group of Putin's oligarchy affiliates consider some of their long-term interests at risk under Putin's team, it can be concluded that the potential to initiate a new dispute between the Russian oligarchs class is formed with each other because the conditions for the return of a group of Russian oligarchs to body of the Russian power is provided. Needless to say that through supporting and protecting a group of them, the West can pushes the Russian oligarchs into a new rival. Thus, Russia re-enters a conflict that had experienced earlier in the course of the first Russian President and finally: a Russia incapable of entering into the international issues.
We should not also neglect the fact that the political structure of Russia is not similar to the political structure of Western and also the European countries which area member of EU; an economic crisis could easily create a major political crisis in Russia. The “Ruble crisis” is a precise instance to prove this claim. 
There is no doubt that the West has been able to strike both Moscow's sphere of political influence in the international arena and attracting investor into Russia through reducing Russia's political and economic reputation. These strains in addition to the pressure from inside to the body of the Russian oligarchy can leave a devastating effect on Moscow's future.

Decision Pyramid of Russia and the Issue of Ukraine

West has been trying to force Moscow to change its policies on Ukraine through sanctioning Russia. However, these sanctions could not stop Russia supporting the pro-Russian militias in Ukraine. Thus, we can conclude that the only concern of the present decision pyramid in Russia as in the Cold War and the former Soviet era is to maintain their own personal interests (and not the rights and privileges of the people and Russia). That is why the strengthening of Gazprom as the most important economic center in Russia and also promoting the political position of Moscow during post Boris Yeltsin years does not led to a tangible improvement in the quality of Russians' life.
So it is convenient for the West to determine private and personal interests of the decision pyramid's members as the target of sanctions in order to realize the pressures against Moscow or in other words to make these pressures efficient.
Certainly, when the members of Russian decision pyramid separated their own interests from the interests of Russia, it is expected that the West identifies the mentioned separation to avoid wasting the resources and quickly achieve its goals.
An important point in this respect is that Moscow's dangerous decisions on Ukraine, which eventually led to the sanctions against Russia, have definitely been against the long term interests of big economical companies of Russia such as Gazprom. But despite this fact, these companies have continued their support of the Russian leadership, so doesn't this mean that these companies confirm the Kremlin's policies?!

Ukraine: The Energy’s Cards

Ukraine and Russia will soon enter negotiations about the sale of Russian gas but the difference in energy negotiations with the last time is that Kiev is able to undertake the Civil War and at the same time Moscow was not able to be acquitted from the charge of supporting the militants of East Ukraine and this means that the crisis of East Ukraine has become a winner card for Kiev, whereas in the last period, this crisis was considered as a victory for Moscow. But Kiev can be benefited by this card when Washington and its allies try to suppress Moscow in negotiations through considering failure factors of Moscow from vindicating the support of pro-Russians in East of Ukraine and victories of the president of Ukraine. It should be noted that Gazprom is the last trump card of Kremlin to change the game in favor of the Moscow, therefor; if West fails to apply pressure on Moscow, Russia will then be able to use Gazprom as a trump card.  
Ultimately, of course, putting the card of East Ukraine crisis on energy negotiations would be able to persuade Kremlin to make realistic decisions based on realism.

Ukraine: Overt and Covert Crises

For continuation of survival, it is necessary that Ukraine's government has an appropriate prescription to deal with three issues of debts, Gazprom and Ukraine's East crisis. The first two issues are more important than Ukraine's East crisis; because, Ukraine's historical experience shows that Orange Revolution fell due to inability to provide a proper solution to the problem of debt to Moscow and also Gazprom. Considering the fact that Moscow, due to interference in Ukraine affairs, is also affected by Ukraine's East crisis; it can be accepted that the final result in the East of Ukraine can affect Moscow's political credibility, and this means converting threats into opportunities for Kiev. 
Occurrence of crisis in Ukraine, and especially in the East of the country, had been accompanied with condemning Russian government's political behavior by allies of Washington; and this issue has declined an enormous part of Moscow's political credibility. Offering the suggestion of peace talks between the parties involved in Ukraine's conflict, Russian leadership tries to rebuild his face, and also through regaining his former power try to return to the arena of global competition. 
So if Moscow succeeds in its new plan, it should be announced that Ukraine crisis will not end, but with making concessions to Moscow and Ukraine's East authority. 
Russia tries to solve Ukraine's East crisis only when the continuation of this crisis has a negative impact on its political credibility; otherwise, that is if Kremlin can escape the crisis by normalizing and taking a peaceful face, it surely does not need to end the crisis in Ukraine's East.
Therefore, if Moscow's political credibility is at risk, Kiev will be able to use Ukraine's East crisis as a winning card to solve the three issues noted above. 
Finally, war destroys war. It means what ends war is war's nature, not the power of a dominant side (in most cases). So, continuation of the war by considering current elements will be beneficial to Kiev.

Ukraine and International Criminal Court

Russia, as before, has used Gazprom as weapon against changing Ukraine`s political policy. But, now Kiev has such situation that it can resist against this Russia's old weapon with resourcefulness.
Undoubtedly, East Ukraine`s militias operations deserve punishment and also, self-proclaimed Novorussiya state is not recognized by any country or any international organization. So, these crimes have taken place in Kiev area and Kiev has the right of trying criminals of East Ukraine judicially.
Evidently occurred crime at East Ukraine as crimes against humanity that was specified in constitution of International Criminal Court is suable. So, due to joining Ukraine to International Criminal Court from 2000, it can leave thou criminal verification of offenders to an international court with status report of East Ukraine to prosecutor of the court.
It is obvious that court interfering to East Ukraine issue causes not only trying offenders judicially, but also, prevents Moscow from interfering in Ukraine affairs. Undoubtedly, political and legal movement causes reducing Kremlin credibility.
Points:
Ukraine haven't approved court`s constitution in the country despite that Ukraine has signed that. So, in such situation, approval of this constitution for Moscow means that Kiev is ready to use International Criminal Court's card. 
Since, Kiev reports its situation, so it doesn't need Security Council and also doesn't face with probability obstacle such Veto.
And also, Kiev can do political factoring of this card and can gain wanted advantages from Moscow before performing this card.

Ukraine: Scrounge Violence

Result of the recent referendum in East Ukraine led to Kiev’s concern; and this issue under lay Ukrainian government hasty use of security forces and violence. But this concern is partly due to lack of follow up and look into the all details of East Ukraine’s issue. East Ukraine needs a supporter to implement its vote, but the result of recent referendum has not been verified even by Russia. Needless to say that approving and accepting the result of referendum has legal and political effects, which Moscow has so far avoided doing it. Respect referendum result and self-determination right, what Moscow attempted to do it, has only moral effect (ethical propriety) in the international system, and nothing more than that. But what could be considered disturbing to the Ukraine is starting a civil war. It is easily possible for groups in Ukraine to become armed and put a loyalty mask to Moscow or Kiev on their face; then, performing separate terrorist operations, each of them enter the country into the civil war, like the model occurred in Central African and Rwanda. Surely, the model of terrorism that now Ukraine is talented in it and has its presence potential, is similar to the model has happened in Central Africa, and not like what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. Difference between an extremist group and a moderate one becomes apparent when the situations get out of the control. Ukraine’s getting out of normal situation allow extremists to use all of the violence potential. Therefore, rapid normalizing of the situations will eradicate the possibility of releasing extremist potential. Thus, to prevent occurring terrorism that enters Ukraine into a civil war, it is necessary that firstly, the fear and violence, which provide required motivation and potential for appearing terrorism and extremism, be stopped (cease-fire); Secondly, Donetsk and Lugansk be placed under economic enclave, like what previously happened during World War II for Leningrad;Thirdly, Ukrainian military forces take serious care of the border between Russia and Ukraine in order to prevent breaking economic siege. Undoubtedly, Russia and East Ukraine can’t win a non-violent war, in the current situations. That is, the situation that Russian leadership, with thirty years auction of Gazprom to China, has lost much of his reputation among power and wealth elites in Russia; and it is their biggest obstacle for a new adventure or gambling.

Russia: East Of Ukraine, Syria's New Playground

Is the critical stage of the protesters movement in East Ukraine over?
Yes. Many of the movements when are weak they're converted into violence. In fact the extremist minority of each movement after the decrease in protestors are forced to use violence to keep the excitement and dynamism, and through this keep the movement alive. The recent hostage crisis in East Russia represents the same kind of violence. But Russia's support of the protesters' causes this movement to continue artificial life due to external support.

Why Russia, despite losing much interest and most importantly the abortion of their plans through Ukraine, insists on supporting East of Ukraine?
East of Ukraine is the hostage of Russia for the final game in Syria. Russia that finds Syria’s game to be lost, tries to get a winner card in the power competition in Syria, through this. In such a condition the White House could release the Ukrainian hostage by giving Syria’s concession to Russia. But this is a wrong choice. Washington can give the points of the repeated game to Russia, in case of Syria. This means, despite that Russia will have no share nor will the competition end, the present competition in which Russia considers itself as the loser will stop. The new Game theory in Syria can immediately be implemented after the current game ends or even before it.The new theory is simple, very simple. Requesting Arab friends like Saudi Arabia to establish a secret communication channel with the men who already are in authority in Syria. The goal of this communication channel is clear; to convince them to secretly remove Bashar Assad; Soft revolution (Happy Democracy in Syria!)  
Notes: The new phase of supporting Afghanistan can make a soldier out of Afghanistan in a psychological war against Russia.
Change psychological warfare. Convert psychological warfare from threats policy to humiliation policy.
If the government of Ukraine negotiates with opponents, it will lead them to be recognized and it's probably an achievement for the opponents that may bring peace back to Ukraine, but may in the future (next few years) become a motivation for the re-release of potential dissatisfactions.

Who's Afraid of the Joker Card – Ukraine?!

The release of dissatisfaction potentials after the aftershocks of the Crimean crisis is the cause of the East Ukraine 's rebellion, it means that the crisis in East Ukraine like the Arab Spring and movements of the 50s and 60s in Latin America follow a domino theory or model and aren't considered as a dependent crisis. Success and failure of such crises strongly depend on the spatial and temporal proximity to the area of a political quake. The area of the political quake in Ukraine is Crimea. Thus, the longer the time span between the Crimea crisis and the crisis in East Ukraine, the less possible is the victory of the East Ukraine rebellions. (Of course, if the rebellion does not enter an armed phase.) 
The rebellions of East Ukraine need to achieve early and rapid success, because if their rebellion becomes prolonged, their rebellion will have the same fate that the revolution in Bahrain had experienced. 
Bahrain's Revolution has lost most of the chance to win because of getting away from the Arab Spring. Prolongation of the objections period for any movement or any revolution which hasn't been independent but has been related to another political or social quake and is a killing factor. 
Therefore, 'killing time' is a policy that can bring peace and stability back to Ukraine. 
Also, as long as Crimea is living in our mind, its motivating effect will also be living for the East Ukraine and Russia. Therefore,'silence' on the experience of Crimea is a policy that can perform as a catalyzer. Let's forget Crimea's experience before it becomes a model and a symbol for the Pro-Russian, through a psychological warfare! 
However, Moscow doesn't like the experience of the Crimea to be repeated about the East of Ukraine, but rather prefers to create a psychological warfare because otherwise the game will end.
It's about same the Nazi government of Germany which has won the most points through the creation of psychological warfare.
Unfortunately this isn't the whole story. If Kremlin feels to lose the game, it may choose any irrational choice like: Hitler, Muammar Gaddafi and ….
In other words, Moscow is trying to create a psychological warfare using the crisis in East Ukraine and gain points through this psychological warfare but if it feels to lose in this psychological war, it may use any unreasonable options such as military options.
Therefore the responsibility of the West is that,firstly the crisis in East Ukraine ends, and secondly, the psychological warfare does not end to an armed conflict.
About solving the crisis in East Ukraine some explanations were given, but about with standing against changing the psychological war to an armed conflict, it should be said:
Creating an active and temporary diplomacy channel with Russia about Ukraine's crisis create the illusion for Moscow that Western governments have entered the field of Russian game or that they have taken Kremlin's joker card in Ukraine; the card that should never be taken! 
On the other hand, China must know that supporting Moscow would not be unanswered. The issue of Taiwan, the Chinese market in America, the Senkaku Islands dispute are issues through addressing which Peking can be easily dissuaded from the idea of supporting Moscow in the crisis of East Ukraine.
For example: only promoting the slogan "Buying Chinese goods is supporting the Chinese government" can be minatory for the Chinese market in America, but this slogan shouldn't be addressed by the government and members of the political class, because the aim is not to create tension in United States - China relationship.

Russia and the coup in the Middle East

Washington implemented suspension option of some sanctions against Iranian students (studying at universities in the United States) and universities in Iran as carrot policy toward Iran. An option to jeopardize Russian interests in Iran with the aim of deterring Russia's expansionism policies adopted and implemented in the foreign arena. However, while the White House was disappointed of other options selected this option. Washington even performed ping-pong diplomacy policy simulation that ran by Michelle Obama but didn't succeed. 
Although this option has been selected late, the results were successful. At this time Iran hasn't any reaction to the Crimea and Russia. Kremlin supports Iran's nuclear program and it's clear that it made a pressure on Tehran by its supports. So, Russia expected Iran to recognize Crimea's joining to Russia like Belarus and Afghanistan. But Iran still has refused such favoritism. From the other side, since Crimea was an autonomous republic, so independence is inherent right of this government. Surely if Mr.Obama has forgotten the lessons of law school, Mrs. Michelle Obama is certainly nice to know that this independence is penetrating and joining to another government is agree with international law, as the separation of Texas from Mexico and joining to the United States which considered to be correct. However this time Iran supported the position of the international community rather than Russia. 
But if US government didn't lay Iran's card on the table, Russia possibly had decided to bet on Middle East with Iranian card. 
Russia could increase its support of Iran to allow Iranian political radicalism to be released. Like the action that Washington did about Jakarta and Suharto. The release of political radicalism in Iran at the first step threatens the established order in the Middle East. So the Arab countries will be force to seek new powers to protect and ensure the safety of their own. Then the Russia would gain the opportunity to replace the United States in the Middle East order.
The old theory of virus and anti virus. You surely know that some manufacturers of anti virus are those that created the viruses and they're the creator of the virus themselves. So the anti virus vendor is the creator of the virus.
Russia now is trying to broaden and deepen its ties with the Arab League but Arab League at this time doesn't necessarily need broad relations with Russia.