Monday, April 14, 2014

The Non-Iranian Model For Hezbollah

What changes Hezbollah to become a threat isn't the Lebanese support towards Hezbollah, but Hezbollah's military power and its anti-Israel attitude. Even after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war that Hezbollah considered itself as the triumphant, didn't cause it to achieve popularity and political votes. Therefore, if the anti-Israel attitude of Hezbollah lacks military power, Hezbollah is no more than a threat, because Hezbollah hasn't enough social statues!
Undoubtedly, the financial resources are the provider of Hezbollah's military power and Hassan Nasr Allah, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, has stated that "Iran's financial support from Hezbollah has made Hezbollah need less of any trade". 
Therefore, isolating Hezbollah from Iran is the key to achieve a "safe Hezbollah". Maybe it seems impossible to achieve such a goal, but when we study the Iranian history after the Revolution, we notice that the separation of political characters and groups from the Islamic Republic regime with in Iran's government has repeatedly happened. Bani-Sadr, the first president of Iran, Ayatollah Montazeri, the Supreme Leader Khomeini's successor, Mousavi Iran's former Prime Minister in Ayatollah Khamenei Presidency (the current leader), Karroubi, the former chairman of the parliament of Iran for instance. 
Therefore, the separation of Hezbollah from the Islamic Republic regime of Iran isn't an unattainable goal!  
First of all, Hezbollah's dependency to Tehran must be eliminated. To achieve this goal it's necessary that some new supporters, take the responsibility to support Hezbollah, and secondly, Hezbollah should be able to attain international political power without the intervention or even the participation of Iran.  
For example: Creating a conference initiated by Turkey, on the crisis in Syria that can be associated with Hezbollah could be a good start. 
Although new opportunities in the international arena for Hezbollah can be provided by a government or governments other than Iran, Arabic countries are certainly not a good candidate because religious disparities (Shia - Sunni) will prevent this to happen.
When Hezbollah became entirely dependent to its new international political power, the supporters would be able to raise their demands and expectations from Hezbollah. The new demand must be the ideological disconnection from Tehran. Only ideological!
And this means the clearance of the sphere of influence of the Islamic Republic in South Lebanon and the beginning of the decline in financial supports of Tehran from Hezbollah. Whenever the separation of Hezbollah from Iran is confirmed, the supports from Hezbollah can decline gradually. Thus, Hezbollah would be disarmed after a while, without even putting down the Palestinian flag and fighting against Israel. (It will die standing!) Sino-Soviet split and also the separation of Che Guevara and Fidel Castro are successful examples of implementing similar models in history.
Needless to say that multilateral support is always safer than unilateral support. So it's better to separate political support from financial support. Like the supportive pattern of al Qaeda, that's a government undertakes the political support of Hezbollah and other political states or groups undertake the financial support of Hezbollah.
Is it possible for Hezbollah to reconcile again with Iran, after the separation? 
Almost no. This model obeys the theory of "burned member". The performance of this model is such that makes it impossible to use a normal member; disabling the usage is the outcomes of this model.

For example, the magazine A that is owned by the right wing, has gained some achievements due to one or more expert writers in the editorial board. The publication B belonging to the left wing, accepts a number of such writers with excellent suggestions for the publication. The achievements of the magazine A declines after a while and B fires the writers who were hired recently. These authors also fail to return to their previous positions in the magazine A.
(If we replace the titles of the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal with the names A and B, we will certainly know that why the writers could not return to their previous positions.)

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