Friday, April 11, 2014

Who's Afraid of the Joker Card – Ukraine?!

The release of dissatisfaction potentials after the aftershocks of the Crimean crisis is the cause of the East Ukraine 's rebellion, it means that the crisis in East Ukraine like the Arab Spring and movements of the 50s and 60s in Latin America follow a domino theory or model and aren't considered as a dependent crisis. Success and failure of such crises strongly depend on the spatial and temporal proximity to the area of a political quake. The area of the political quake in Ukraine is Crimea. Thus, the longer the time span between the Crimea crisis and the crisis in East Ukraine, the less possible is the victory of the East Ukraine rebellions. (Of course, if the rebellion does not enter an armed phase.) 
The rebellions of East Ukraine need to achieve early and rapid success, because if their rebellion becomes prolonged, their rebellion will have the same fate that the revolution in Bahrain had experienced. 
Bahrain's Revolution has lost most of the chance to win because of getting away from the Arab Spring. Prolongation of the objections period for any movement or any revolution which hasn't been independent but has been related to another political or social quake and is a killing factor. 
Therefore, 'killing time' is a policy that can bring peace and stability back to Ukraine. 
Also, as long as Crimea is living in our mind, its motivating effect will also be living for the East Ukraine and Russia. Therefore,'silence' on the experience of Crimea is a policy that can perform as a catalyzer. Let's forget Crimea's experience before it becomes a model and a symbol for the Pro-Russian, through a psychological warfare! 
However, Moscow doesn't like the experience of the Crimea to be repeated about the East of Ukraine, but rather prefers to create a psychological warfare because otherwise the game will end.
It's about same the Nazi government of Germany which has won the most points through the creation of psychological warfare.
Unfortunately this isn't the whole story. If Kremlin feels to lose the game, it may choose any irrational choice like: Hitler, Muammar Gaddafi and ….
In other words, Moscow is trying to create a psychological warfare using the crisis in East Ukraine and gain points through this psychological warfare but if it feels to lose in this psychological war, it may use any unreasonable options such as military options.
Therefore the responsibility of the West is that,firstly the crisis in East Ukraine ends, and secondly, the psychological warfare does not end to an armed conflict.
About solving the crisis in East Ukraine some explanations were given, but about with standing against changing the psychological war to an armed conflict, it should be said:
Creating an active and temporary diplomacy channel with Russia about Ukraine's crisis create the illusion for Moscow that Western governments have entered the field of Russian game or that they have taken Kremlin's joker card in Ukraine; the card that should never be taken! 
On the other hand, China must know that supporting Moscow would not be unanswered. The issue of Taiwan, the Chinese market in America, the Senkaku Islands dispute are issues through addressing which Peking can be easily dissuaded from the idea of supporting Moscow in the crisis of East Ukraine.
For example: only promoting the slogan "Buying Chinese goods is supporting the Chinese government" can be minatory for the Chinese market in America, but this slogan shouldn't be addressed by the government and members of the political class, because the aim is not to create tension in United States - China relationship.

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