Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Minsk Protocol: Russian "Reversal of Matter"

It is necessary to verify the West strategy on Ukraine crisis because the political and legal status of Donetsk and Lugansk regions has been changed since signing the Minsk Protocol. So: 
First, Russia is trying to legitimate the total control of separatists over the East Ukraine through "reversal of matter" (as a tactic). 
What is (still) the main matter of Ukraine crisis?
Land and territory, not only a ceasefire or peace.
What is the main problem of Ukraine crisis according to standpoint of Moscow?
Unconditional ceasefire. (It should be noted that such a ceasefire will give Moscow this opportunity to create its third victory in East Ukraine after South Ossetia and Crimea; of course a total war is a best situation to promote the idea of ceasefire in order to divert public opinion and media from the main subject to the ceasefire.)
Therefore, Ukraine needs to know Russia and the separatists want Minsk Protocol to be abolished by Kiev more than anything else. Because the agreement imposed a legal regime based on the law of treaties on the Donetsk and Lugansk areas. Under the agreement, Donetsk and Lugansk are identified as local (self) governments. This legal description determines the areas (legal) capacity and definitely the capacity do not allow Donetsk and Lugansk regions to have independence. So, the total control of separatists over the areas is invalid. Indeed, DPR and LPR representatives as well as Russian Federation representative have recognized the mentioned capacity (not more than that) to Donetsk and Lugansk and the signatory parties are bound to the agreement. 
So it is better to consider use of military force by Kiev against the militants as an effort of the country to force the separatists to implement the agreement or even known as Ukrainian armed defense from the Minsk Protocol. Thus, on the one hand armed action of government (based on a limited war) should not be considered an abolition and repeal of the protocol, but on the other hand the Kiev should not enter to a total war.  
Second, China is not in favor of Putin's regime debacle and fall, therefore China certainly will push to Moscow to end this crisis if it ensures that Ukraine crisis could cause the Putin's regime to be fallen.

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