Tuesday, March 4, 2014

On Russia: Bring the War to Home!

Russia under the pretext of supporting from interests of Russian nationals in Crimea, campaign there and break Ukraine's independence. It reminds the author of the fall of Czechoslovakia in 1938 when Hitler's Nazi government attacked Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia under the pretext of supporting the interests of German nationals who have residing there. Also the author has expressed some content in another paper named 'Cuba isn't the Second China!' about sphere of influence and its threats through the race and nationality. 
But in the current situation, there's no time to regret. Legal and political status of Crimea will be determined on March 30 by a referendum, but what the unknown is Russia's next political move. The most important concern is repetition of the Post-Orange Revolution events, Russia use of Gazprom, Ukraine's debts as weapons against it as in past which were effective factor for failure of Orange Revolution.
Unfortunately, even the Russian main opposition party which was Communist also agreed to the military move of Putin, and recently a number of Communist representatives of Duma state of Russia entered Crimea in order to meet the opposition of Ukraine new government.
But there are two sides to every story. Russia has many interests in Iran. Because, when most countries have isolated Iran, Russia supported it, including its nuclear program. 
But the new president of Iran has likely a positive view of west and the most thread from Iran against Russia in this country is made when the need of Tehran to Moscow is minimized because this would destroy by itself Russia's sphere of influence in Iran.
So a new positive discourse of Washington to Tehran even a temporary one could transmit a new message by the White House to the Kremlin. A message which threatening Russia interests and sphere of influence in Iran.
A new political move from the West in favor of Iran as an encouraging political behavior could make America or Europe as a new rival for Russia on Iran.
In other hand, historical experience shows that political disquiets in Russia would prevent Moscow from foreign ambitions. Prior to this, internal political disquiets in Russia led the country couldn't play an active role in Kosovo crisis. Dissolution of Parliament in Russia and interpellation of the president or continual efforts to destroy his face by the parliament during Yeltsin presidency is sufficient enough to prove the claim that Russia has the potential for implementation of the political instability plan or plans.
A strong opposition in Russia as exists in Yeltsin era could be a pressure on Moscow. 

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