Tuesday, May 13, 2014

The Winner of Ukraine's Crisis

"Autonomy of East Ukraine" has been the result of all the recent referendum in the East of the country. This result would not have any legal effect on the international law.
Why?
Autonomy is different from independence. An autonomous area can only be dependent by relying on the votes of the people of that region. But being an autonomous region needs the votes of all the people of the country and not the people living in that area, because as long as a part of a country isn't undertaken by an autonomous government, it belongs to all the people of that country. Donetsk and Lugansk belong to all people of Ukraine, both West and East Ukraine. So the recent referendum that was held in the East is invalid. But if a part of a country is autonomous, the decision to separate and become an independent country or of being separated and joined another countries exclusively depends to the people of the region.
If Russia wasn't retreating from its positions about East Ukraine, before the referendum, the people of East Ukraine could possibly impose the result of the referendum to the government of Ukraine by trying to have Russian support or the civil war.
Now, the movement in Ukraine has ended and Russia has refused its unwavering support to the East Ukraine. But there's no guarantee for Russia's future behavior. So the White House is required to play different cards, like Obama’s visit with the Syrian opposition leader, that haven't allowed reconsideration to the Russian leadership, to finally end the period after the crisis (a few weeks) in Ukraine. It's very important that Russia don't interfere in the affairs of Ukraine. The natural reaction of the people of East Ukraine to the rejection of the result of the referendum will certainly be aggressive but if it isn't accompanied with Russian support, it will become the last aggression of East Ukraine for years. The important point is that the government of Ukraine should make efforts to prevent violence, because the exercise of violence would provide the required excuse for Russia to intervene in the affairs of Ukraine.

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