Ukraine: Scrounge Violence

Result of the recent referendum in East Ukraine led to Kiev’s concern; and this issue under lay Ukrainian government hasty use of security forces and violence. But this concern is partly due to lack of follow up and look into the all details of East Ukraine’s issue. East Ukraine needs a supporter to implement its vote, but the result of recent referendum has not been verified even by Russia. Needless to say that approving and accepting the result of referendum has legal and political effects, which Moscow has so far avoided doing it. Respect referendum result and self-determination right, what Moscow attempted to do it, has only moral effect (ethical propriety) in the international system, and nothing more than that. But what could be considered disturbing to the Ukraine is starting a civil war. It is easily possible for groups in Ukraine to become armed and put a loyalty mask to Moscow or Kiev on their face; then, performing separate terrorist operations, each of them enter the country into the civil war, like the model occurred in Central African and Rwanda. Surely, the model of terrorism that now Ukraine is talented in it and has its presence potential, is similar to the model has happened in Central Africa, and not like what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan. Difference between an extremist group and a moderate one becomes apparent when the situations get out of the control. Ukraine’s getting out of normal situation allow extremists to use all of the violence potential. Therefore, rapid normalizing of the situations will eradicate the possibility of releasing extremist potential. Thus, to prevent occurring terrorism that enters Ukraine into a civil war, it is necessary that firstly, the fear and violence, which provide required motivation and potential for appearing terrorism and extremism, be stopped (cease-fire); Secondly, Donetsk and Lugansk be placed under economic enclave, like what previously happened during World War II for Leningrad;Thirdly, Ukrainian military forces take serious care of the border between Russia and Ukraine in order to prevent breaking economic siege. Undoubtedly, Russia and East Ukraine can’t win a non-violent war, in the current situations. That is, the situation that Russian leadership, with thirty years auction of Gazprom to China, has lost much of his reputation among power and wealth elites in Russia; and it is their biggest obstacle for a new adventure or gambling.