Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Ukraine: Overt and Covert Crises

For continuation of survival, it is necessary that Ukraine's government has an appropriate prescription to deal with three issues of debts, Gazprom and Ukraine's East crisis. The first two issues are more important than Ukraine's East crisis; because, Ukraine's historical experience shows that Orange Revolution fell due to inability to provide a proper solution to the problem of debt to Moscow and also Gazprom. Considering the fact that Moscow, due to interference in Ukraine affairs, is also affected by Ukraine's East crisis; it can be accepted that the final result in the East of Ukraine can affect Moscow's political credibility, and this means converting threats into opportunities for Kiev. 
Occurrence of crisis in Ukraine, and especially in the East of the country, had been accompanied with condemning Russian government's political behavior by allies of Washington; and this issue has declined an enormous part of Moscow's political credibility. Offering the suggestion of peace talks between the parties involved in Ukraine's conflict, Russian leadership tries to rebuild his face, and also through regaining his former power try to return to the arena of global competition. 
So if Moscow succeeds in its new plan, it should be announced that Ukraine crisis will not end, but with making concessions to Moscow and Ukraine's East authority. 
Russia tries to solve Ukraine's East crisis only when the continuation of this crisis has a negative impact on its political credibility; otherwise, that is if Kremlin can escape the crisis by normalizing and taking a peaceful face, it surely does not need to end the crisis in Ukraine's East.
Therefore, if Moscow's political credibility is at risk, Kiev will be able to use Ukraine's East crisis as a winning card to solve the three issues noted above. 
Finally, war destroys war. It means what ends war is war's nature, not the power of a dominant side (in most cases). So, continuation of the war by considering current elements will be beneficial to Kiev.

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